Recently, the US dollar has been pairedRMB exchange rateThere was a large swing, which attracted a lot of attention from the market. Fed's Powell's softening stance has given a glimmer of hope, but former Fed Chair Janet Yellen is likely to take the opportunity to retaliate with moreU.S. Treasuries。This article will start with the trend of the US dollarRMB exchange rateEconomyimpact and other perspectives, and a detailed analysis of the probability that the dollar will break 100 and its impact on ChinaEconomyimpact.
Since the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to 55%.Federal** Interest Rateand a 10-year termU.S. TreasuriesYields peaked at 5% and the dollar showed a strong stance. RMB exchange rateIt was also affected, and at one point it fell below 73 passes. However, such a strong dollar is not sustainable. EconomyScholars generally believe that high interest rates became the United StatesEconomyThe Fed's policy has begun to shift, and the likelihood of subsequent interest rate hikes is extremely low. ExpectedU.S. dollar indexwill soon fall below 100 and ** is also climbing. Affected by this,RMB exchange rateIt is expected to stabilize and rebound.
Further analysis, with the start of the U.S. interest rate cut cycle, the value of the dollar will accelerate at the fastest pace. This will give a further pushRMBThe trend of appreciation, promptedRMB exchange rateSteady recovery. This is for ChinaEconomyis a positive impact. First, the narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States will make ChinaEconomyBenefit. With the Fed cutting interest rates, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will narrow, and foreign capital is likely to return to China, accelerating ChinaEconomydevelopment. Second, China's central bank has cut interest rates several times recentlyRRR cut, the cost of capital has fallen, and business confidence has been boosted. Coupled with the contraction of the exchange rate between China and the United States, ChinaEconomyA more stable environment will be ushered in, and both domestic demand and exports are expected to resume growth.
However, we also need to be wary of another significant and uncertain risk: the possibility of borrowing by the US TreasuryU.S. TreasuriesThe decline in yields is more than the issuance of the sameU.S. Treasuries。United StatesFiscal deficitsExpanding, this move could give the United States and the worldEconomyInflict new shocks.
1. The trend of the RMB exchange rate
The current external environment pairsRMB exchange rateThe direction has had an important impact. The US dollar is expected to continue to weaken as the Fed pivots to a policy of cutting interest ratesRMBIt is expected to stabilize and rebound. Stillworld economyThe recovery process is still unstable, and the global risk factors cannot be ignoredRMBThe direction of the exchange rate will bring some uncertainty. We need to pay close attention to domestic and foreign policy changes and the evolution of the international environment in order to formulate scientific and rational exchange rate policies and measures.
2. Economic development and financial stability
RMB exchange ratestability for ChinaEconomyis very important. On the one hand, stableRMB exchange rateHelps to boost business confidence and promoteThe real economyDevelop. On the other hand, stableRMB exchange rateForFinanceThe stability of the market also played a roleCriticalFunction. withRMBThe process of internationalization will be promoted to maintain the stability of the exchange rateFinanceAn important part of stability.
3. Foreign investment and investment
RMB exchange rateThe trend of China's foreign ** and cross-borderInvestmentsIt also has an important impact. RMBThe appreciation of the value of goods will help reduce export costs and enhance the competitiveness of Chinese goods. At the same time, appreciationRMBIt will also attract more foreign capital inflows and promote foreign investmentInvestments
In the face of the possibility of the dollar breaking 100, we should pay attention to the worldEconomyThe situation evolves and we will pay close attention to all aspectsFinancePolicy Adjustments. For ChinaEconomyIn other words,RMB exchange rateThe stability is forThe real economywithFinanceThe market is crucial. In the process of future development, we need to respond flexibly to changes in the external environment and adopt appropriate policies and measures to ensure itEconomyof steady growth andFinanceThe stable operation of the market.