**: Market information.
Market trend: In terms of spot, on December 27, soybean port inventory recorded 742780,000 tons, an increase of 5 from the previous day610,000 tons, an increase of 076%；In the latest week, soybean port inventories have increased by 17760,000 tons, an increase of 245%；In the latest month, soybean port inventories have increased by 44010,000 tons, an increase of 630%。
* In terms of December 27, the price of the main contract 2403** of Douyi was 4968 yuan ton, an increase of 131%。
Brazil's soybean production has decreased, and weather factors are more sensitive to the impact of soybean prices:
U.S. soybean spot* on Tuesday mainly reflected concerns that the weather in Brazil could lead to crop yield damage. Meanwhile, the Chicago Exchange's soybean *** January 2024 soybean futures closed about 135 cents at 131325 cents bushels;Soybean closed 12 higher in March75 cents at 1,319 cents bushels.
At present, the soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil, South America, has begun to be harvested, and the yield has been significantly reduced due to the previous drought, which also provides support for the starting price of US beans, and the short-term US soybean futures price is strong. Farmers in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean producing state, have started harvesting soybeans at a rate of around 1% due to dry weather that has accelerated their crop growth cycles, marking the start of the new season.
Argentina's soybean production suffered a rare reduction in the first half of 2023, and the country's weather conditions are now generally normal, with agencies assessing Argentine soybean production at a normal level of around 48 million tonnes. An increase in Argentine soybean production could significantly reduce the impact of a reduction in Brazilian soybean production on global soybeans**. As South American soybeans enter the critical stage of growth, weather factors will become more sensitive to the impact of soybean prices. In addition, the CRB index, which tracks the movements of 19 commodities, was **077%, Middle East tensions and the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts supported the strength of commodity markets.
Domestic soybean inventories remain at record highs, and the pressure has increased significantly
In the near future, the operating rate of oil mills is mainly stable, and domestic soybean oil inventories are expected to remain high in the absence of a significant improvement in demand. Affected by traders adjusting their positions before the end of the year, the CBOT soybean market closed higher on Tuesday, and soybean meal and soybean oil were intraday. CBOT soybeans** closed higher on Tuesday as traders adjusted their positions ahead of the end of the year. The soybean meal capacity of domestic oil mills remains sufficient. With the gradual recovery of oil mill operating rates, continue to replenish the market**.
With the increase in imported soybean arrivals, the domestic market** has improved, and the port soybean inventory has continued to accumulate to a record high level. The pressure of oil mills continues to be reflected, and some factories have begun to urge the delivery of goods, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not high, and it is still mainly used and purchased, and the willingness to purchase forward contracts is also relatively sluggish, and the market short-term transaction is slightly larger, but it is difficult to change the situation that the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate.
In the context of the continuous loss of downstream pig breeding, the acceleration of pig slaughter, and the significant expansion of the decline in the inventory of fertile sows, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the procurement sentiment is difficult to repair. The supply and demand pattern of the whole market is obviously weak, and the risk of soybean meal inventory of oil mills continuing to accumulate is high. In the context of a significant increase in market pressure, soybean meal will not change its downward trend in the short term.
Summary: On Tuesday, the market of Douyi first suppressed and then rose to continue to rise, and the policy expectation was superimposed on technical buying, and the center of gravity of the Douyi market was raised, and the overall rhythm was maintained. At present, the domestic soybean market is oversupplied, highly dependent on policy, and a new round of purchases by the State Reserve boosts market confidence, and the correction is still continuing. The market continues to rebound and is expected to maintain a strong trend today.
Liu Yu **Transaction Consulting Qualification No.: Z0012343).