This week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange rose and fell, and the Beijing Stock Exchange strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 091% to 294256 points;The Shenzhen Composite Index, the ChiNext Composite Index, and the STAR 50 Index fell respectively throughout the week. 39%。The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 105%。
This Monday, A-shares** were related to the increase in the volume of state-owned technology ETFs at that time, because the market suspected that institutions with state-owned assets were increasing their holdings. A-shares were not volatile on Tuesday and noticeably on Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve released the first signal, but on Thursday, A-shares opened higher and lower. On Thursday evening, the news of the optimization of the Beijing-Shanghai property market control measures, coupled with the release of a large amount of funds by the central bank in the market operation on the same day, and the remaining economic indicators for November announced on the same day were acceptable, but the A-shares still opened high and low on Friday. On the whole, although the decline in Shenzhen and Shanghai ** this week is not large, it feels that the overall performance is weak due to good news.
China's industrial output rose 6 percent year-on-year in November, which was released on Friday morning6%, better than expected;Retail sales rose 10 percent year-on-year in November1%；In the first 11 months of this year, investment in fixed assets increased by 29%。
Personally, I don't think there is any obvious positive about this set of data, and it is neutral at best. The above retail sales data for November does not seem to be low in absolute terms, but this is related to the low base.
Also on Friday morning, the central bank carried out 1The 45 trillion yuan MLF operation, after offsetting the maturity amount, actually released 800 billion yuan. Although the substantial release of capital is good, it also reduces the probability of a short-term RRR cut to a certain extent, so it does not constitute much support for **.
The biggest factor affecting A-shares is the ** Economic Work Conference, which has a lot of ink on structural policies, and the word "high quality" appears frequently.
Personally, I feel that the market has been overly pessimistic recently, and there are actually many favorable signs of the economic situation, but they have been ignored by the market for the time being.
As you know, the 5% growth target for this year has been achieved, and 2024 is only two weeks away, so I suspect that a "more proactive fiscal policy" may be just around the corner, so market expectations for the short- to medium-term economic outlook may soon improve.
The main positive that can be given from the outside is the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Fed itself will cut interest rates 3 times next year, but the market believes that it will be much more than 3 rate cuts. After the Fed's interest rate cut cycle begins, the fiscal and monetary policy space on our side will be enlarged.
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