After a series of disputes in the South China Sea, the Philippines has finally revealed its true intentions at Second Thomas Shoal.
Recently, a Philippine military spokesman claimed that the Philippines is considering building so-called "permanent civilian structures" at Second Thomas Shoal, and will no longer send military supplies there in the future, but civilian supplies.
To be clear, the Philippines continues to transport supplies to the illegally anchored Sierra Madre not because they have the ability to do so, but because the Chinese coast guard has made special arrangements out of basic humanitarian reasons.
Its fundamental purpose is to maintain the security situation in the South China Sea and China-Philippines relations. Otherwise, China can take more aggressive measures.
It doesn't matter if this permanent building is for military or civilian use, it's just a play on words in the Philippines.
Whether it is a lighthouse or a marine scientific research center, they are all disguises of military strongholds, but under the guise of "civilian".
In fact, if it is a real civilian purpose, the Philippine military will not come forward to express its opinion.
** It is clearly stated that Ren'ai Jiao is an uninhabited reef and that according to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, all parties should maintain their uninhabited and facility-free status. For the statements of the spokesman of the Philippine military.
At present, the Philippines' attempt to build a permanent structure on Ren'ai Jiao is a serious violation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and is also strong evidence that the Philippines has repeatedly violated its commitments, frequently changed its policies, and violated the rights and interests of other countries on the South China Sea issue.
In addition, to put it another way, the Philippines' attempt to build a permanent facility on Second Thomas Shoal is essentially looking for a backup solution for the Sierra Madre.
As we know, the situation with the ship has been not optimistic and has become a source of concern for Filipino politicians.
About five years ago, the Philippines** commissioned a third-party assessment that showed that Sierra Madre would last until 2020 at most.
At present, it appears that there is considerable error in this assessment. However, the recent hype in the Philippines about the disintegration of the Sierra Madre is enough to illustrate the problem.
The Sierra Madre, which has been illegally moored for 24 years, has become one of the Philippines' only remaining "military outposts" in the South China Sea. If the broken ship cannot be maintained, the Philippines will become very passive on the issue of Second Thomas Shoal.
A few months ago, there was a heated discussion in the Philippines** about the fate of the wrecked ship.
There is a suggestion that Marcos Jr. could allocate 100 million pesos to build a permanent base on Second Thomas Shoal to replace the Sierra Madre.
Construction work had to be completed as soon as possible, since the disintegration of the "Sierra Madre" was only a matter of time.
This proposal has received overwhelming support within the Philippines, with little opposition.
Assertiveness has become political correctness in the Philippines on the South China Sea issue.
However, it will take a long time to move from a proposal to a workable solution.
This kind of work is finally carried out at the grassroots level.
For senior politicians, dealing with China's maritime law enforcement forces is not all they need to do, and they just stand on the sidelines and make statements.
Considering that the Philippines has recently frequently provoked friction and malicious provocations at Ren'ai Jiao and conducted "joint patrols" with the United States and other countries, combined with the Philippine military spokesman's statement, this "permanent structure" is basically Marcos Jr.** looking for a backup plan for the "Sierra Madre".
However, in the final analysis, the problem hyped up by the Philippines is how the plan is implemented.
Marcos Jr.'s courage to change the status quo at Second Thomas Shoal stems from the support of the U.S.-Philippine defense relationship.
The United States has repeatedly claimed that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the South China Sea.
Of course, it cannot be ruled out that the Philippines is taking chances, believing that it can repeat its past tactics of trying to let the Sierra Madre run aground on Ren'ai Jiao, and wait for unexpected changes in the international situation to try again while China's attention is diverted from the South China Sea.
But now it's different from 24 years ago.
Recently, the Philippines abandoned a transport ship, causing a commotion.
This shows that as the Philippines continues to explore, our control is also being strengthened.
Our core goal is to resolve the South China Sea issue once and for all, not to be distracted by the Philippines' provocations and focus only on the local dispute over Second Thomas Shoal.