After months in the making, Marcos Marcos finally announced plans to resume joint U.S.-Philippine patrols in the South China Sea. It is reported that the program will last 3 days, with the participation of the Navy and Air Force. This is not the first time that the United States and the Philippines have conducted a joint cruise in the South China Sea, the previous one was seven years ago. The plan was first finalized during the administration of the 15th Philippine monarch Benigno Aquino III, when the Philippines wanted to assert its sovereignty over the islands and reefs by patrolling the South China Sea, and the United States agreed to the Philippines' request in support of its position in the South China Sea dispute. However, since Duterte came to power after Aquino III left office and adopted a friendly attitude towards China and advocated resolving disputes through dialogue, the plan for joint cruises was terminated. In the past six years, there has been no significant conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. However, instead of Xi Duterte's approach, Marcos chose to restart the cruise program.
Marcos' announced cruise plan is very provocative and can be said to be a disturbance of the situation in the South China Sea. Although the program is short-lived, it may just be a warm-up, with larger and longer cruises to follow. Marcos is likely to invite other countries, such as Japan, Australia and India, to join. Marcos is looking to woo these countries, especially Japan and India, who are very willing to join the plan to jointly patrol the South China Sea. Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited the Philippines and met with Marcos. In the context of warming relations between Japan and the Philippines, Fumio Kishida should be very important to Marcos, and as long as Marcos invites Japan to join the cruise, Fumio Kishida is likely to agree. Similarly, India is likely to be involved. The Philippines has purchased a large amount of military equipment from India in recent years in order to win over India and join forces with China on the South China Sea issue.
Marcos has an even bigger goal of rallying ASEAN members to develop a new "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea." He said the current situation in the South China Sea is serious and requires the development of new operational guidelines, and has already engaged with the leaders of countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam. The Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, signed in 2002 between China and the Philippines and ASEAN, is now recognized as a guiding document for operations in the South China Sea, and the core of the document is to restrict relevant countries from conducting military activities in the South China Sea in order to avoid escalation of the situation in the South China Sea. However, negotiations have stalled as the Philippines and Vietnam disagree with the declaration, and the South China Sea dispute with China has become increasingly acute.
Marcos's intention is clear: by co-opting other ASEAN members to reformulate a code of conduct in the South China Sea, he intends to put the existing document out of the way and keep China out of negotiations on the South China Sea dispute. However, the idea of former Duterte in the Philippines is a dream. China has the highest level of influence and involvement, and developing a code of conduct in the South China Sea without China's participation is like waste paper, meaningless. China's position on resolving disputes in the South China Sea has been stated on many occasions and reasonable suggestions have been put forward. First of all, the South China Sea should not become a "hunting ground" for external forces, and militarization will only harm the interests of the countries surrounding the South China Sea, and only external forces such as the United States and Japan can laugh out loud. Second, the South China Sea issue needs to be resolved through dialogue, and military confrontation cannot be resolved.
Marcos' move in the Philippines has further complicated and dangerous the situation in the South China Sea, and China needs to be prepared to respond in advance. Not only will it have to face joint patrols in the South China Sea by the United States and the Philippines, but it will also have to deal with the larger ambition of the Philippines: to enlist ASEAN to develop a "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea." However, China's position is very clear: the South China Sea issue needs to be resolved through dialogue on an equal footing, and should not be interfered with and manipulated by external forces. China has always advocated settling disputes through negotiation and consultation, and is unwilling to internationalize the South China Sea issue. However, it is also necessary for China to strengthen diplomatic cooperation and consensus with ASEAN countries, promote mutual trust and cooperation on the South China Sea issue, and jointly maintain peace, stability, prosperity and development in the South China Sea.
In response to Marcos's move, China could take a number of steps. First, China can continue to firmly safeguard its sovereignty and rights and interests in the South China Sea and convey its position and concerns to the Philippines through diplomatic channels. Second, China can continue to promote the peaceful resolution of disputes in the South China Sea through dialogue and cooperation with ASEAN countries. For example, China can actively participate in the development of a code of conduct in the South China Sea to ensure that its interests are adequately protected. In addition, China can also strengthen economic cooperation with ASEAN countries, and promote regional peace and stability through joint economic development and increased dependence and connectivity of all parties.
All in all, Marcos' announcement to resume the US-Philippines joint patrol plan in the South China Sea and to draw in ASEAN to formulate a new code of conduct in the South China Sea are both provoking and provoking the situation in the South China Sea. China needs to remain vigilant, strengthen diplomatic cooperation with ASEAN countries, and safeguard its rights and interests and peace and stability in the South China Sea region through firm positions and appropriate actions.