Wall Street Breakfast FM Radio December 2, 2023

Fearless of Powell's pressure on the prospect of interest rate cuts,U.S. stocks got off to a good start in DecemberThe three major U.S. stock indexes rose for five consecutive weeks, and the Nasdaq reversed its weekly decline on FridayThe Dow hit a new high in nearly two years。SAFTSE's weekly earnings report rose nearly 16%. Tesla fell in a row after delivering trucks。Pfizer, which gave up the development of ** drugs, fell more than 5%. Dell fell nearly 10% at one point after its earnings report.

After Powell's speech,The yield on two-year Treasury bonds plunged more than 10 basis points to a five-month low；The U.S. dollar index turned downward, falling off a one-week high and falling for the first time in five months for three consecutive weeks. The European Central Bank's dovish release helped the two-year German bond yield fall by nearly 40 basis points in a week.

After the OPEC+ meeting**Two consecutive declines to a two-week low, six consecutive declines。**Gold futures hit a record high, rising for three consecutive weeksSpot ** equaled historical highs。London copper rose to a four-month high for two consecutive days, and London nickel exceeded 5% in a week.

In the Chinese market, during the U.S. stock market, the Chinese concept stock index fell, and Pinduoduo fell for the first time after its financial report, butIt surged 22% for the week, the first time after the financial report of station b**,It is still down 19% for the week, Xpeng Motors fell more than 5%. The offshore yuan once rose by more than 300 points, recovering 713, near a four-month high. The BSE 50 closed down 4%, and the ChiNext index closed up 019%, a number of ETFs increased in volume**, and short drama games rose sharply.

State-owned capital operating companyEntering **ETF,Guoxin Investment has increased its holdings in the CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Technology Index** and will continue to increase its holdings in the future.

**Office of the Financial Commission**Financial Work CommitteeHow to go on the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics.

National Standing Session: Study and clarify a number of measures to accelerate the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade.

A new force in car manufacturingNovember Leaderboard:Ask the world to deliver a break 180 thousand, ideal to achieve the annual sales target ahead of schedule.

PowellscaledInterest rates have "penetrated" into restrictive territory, but have poured cold water on rate cuts: It is too early to determine when to ease and prepare for further tightening if needed“New Fed News AgencyFed rate hikes may be overBut they are still "hard-mouthed".

U.S. NovemberISM Manufacturing46.7. Atrophy for 13 consecutive monthsIt is the longest shrinkage cycle in 20 years.

cop28WarningThe drought emergency is unprecedentedMore than 130 countries have pledged to include food production in their carbon reduction plans.

European stocks: Europe's STOXX 600 index closed up 099%, week-over-the-week**135%。Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 112%。France's CAC 40 index closed up 048%。Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 101%。

A shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 303164 points, up 006%。The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 972057 points, down 007%。GEM index closed at 192628 points, up 019%。

Bond market: US 10-year Treasury yield**1136 basis points at 42128%, week-over-the-week**2537 basis points. The two-year Treasury yield fell 1274 basis points at 45549%, down 3935 basis points.

commodity: WTI closed down 1$89, down 249% at 74$07 barrel, week-overhead**194%，Sixth consecutive week**, the cumulative amount of ** during the period is about 1470%。Brent closed down 1 in February$98, down 245% to 78$88 barrel, down 199%, six consecutive weeks of decline. Spot ** rose more than 18% at 2075$41 oz,Approaching the all-time high of 2075 set on August 7, 2020$47 oz。London nickel and London tin closed up more than 2%, London copper rose more than 2% and London nickel rose 56%, London lead fell 35%。

Domestic macro

The state-owned capital operation company entered the ETF, and Guoxin Investment increased its holdings in the CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Technology Index**, and will continue to increase its holdings in the future"National Team" ** Central Enterprise Science and Technology ETF. According to a report by China ** Daily, a state-owned capital operation company entered the ETF products of a number of publicly offered companies on Friday. Most of the ETF products purchased are tracking the index of central enterprises. Judging from the intraday trading on December 1, the turnover of a number of central enterprise index ETFs has increased significantly. Office of the Financial Commission, Financial Working Committee: How to go on the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics. Qiushi published an article signed by the Office of the Financial Commission and the Financial Working Committee. The article says,It is necessary to earnestly solve the problem of "loose and soft" supervision, and strive to ensure that supervision is consistent, strict and thorough, and investigated to the end, so that financial supervision can truly "grow teeth and thorns". Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China: Study and clarify a number of measures to accelerate the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade. The meeting noted that:It is necessary to optimize the environment for the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, implement relevant fiscal and financial support policies, and jointly promote the high-quality development of domestic and foreign trade. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Financial Supervision (SAMR) issued a total of more than 20 fines, involving a number of large banks, joint-stock banks, and wealth management subsidiaries. On December 1, officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration (SAMR) issued dozens of fines for banks, insurance asset management and wealth management subsidiaries. Among them, China CITIC Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China and IB Wealth Management were fined more than 300 million yuan in total for being involved in a number of violations. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50 in November7, a three-month record. Optimism about the production outlook for the next 12 months is the highest since July. Domestic companies

The November ranking of new car-making forces: the delivery of Wenjie broke 180,000, ideal to achieve the annual sales target ahead of schedule. GAC Aion, Ideal, and Xiaopeng ranked in the top three, Zhiji, VOYANT, and AVATR were "at the bottom", and Wenjie overtook Leap and NIO ranked fourth. China Guangfa Bank held a symposium with 6 real estate companies, with the participation of Agile and Country Garden. The main force of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply, and the largest decline since its listing in July has been nearly sixty percent. Many companies plan to carry out hedging business of lithium carbonate**, hoping to hedge or manage related risks. Overseas macro

Powell also poured cold water on the rate cut: it is too early to judge when to ease and prepare for further tightening if needed. Powell reiterated caution, saying that the risks of under-tightening and over-tightening are becoming more balancedInterest rates have "penetrated" into the restrictive zone;It is too early to conclude that the Fed's stance has reached a sufficiently restrictive level, or to speculate on when policy is likely to ease;Let the data reveal what is the right path for interest rates;It is too early to judge the overall impact of AI. Powell believes that we are now on track to achieve our inflation target without causing massive unemploymentSeen as a hint that a soft landing is taking shape. U.S. Treasury yields did not rise as much as they did after the Fed's speech on Thursday to weigh on expectations of interest rate cuts, and the two-year Treasury yield plunged more than 10 basis points intraday. "New Fed News Agency": The Fed's interest rate hikes may be over, but they are still "hard-mouthed". Well-known financial journalist Nick Timiraros believes that the FOMC Fed will choose not to raise interest rates for the time beingBut don't expect them to admit in black and white that the rate hike cycle is overThe Fed is likely to maintain its hawkish forward guidance, suggesting that the direction of the next rate adjustment is more likely to be a rate hike than a rate cut. It will take time to see if the inflation data maintains its cooling trend, or if the economy and job creation slow more than expected. Spot ** intraday rose more than 18% is a record high, and the market expects an 80% probability of a rate cut in March. Bond traders are betting on an 80% chance of a rate cut as early as March next year. Spot ** rose to 2075 intraday$41 an ounce, approaching the all-time high of 2,075 set on August 7, 2020$47 ozISM manufacturing in the United States in November 467. It has shrunk for 13 consecutive months, the longest shrinkage cycle in 20 years. The new orders index has contracted for 15 consecutive monthsThis is the longest consecutive contraction since 1981-1982. COP28 warns of unprecedented drought urgency, with more than 130 countries pledging to include food production in carbon reduction plans. Countries that have signed the Declaration on Food and Climate Action together have a population of 5.7 billion, account for 70% of the world's food productivity, and 76% of global greenhouse gas emissions from food systems. These countries agreed to prioritize carbon emissions from food and agricultural production in their plans to address climate change. The Global Stocktaking Roundtable was held at COP28 on Friday, the first of the first high-level global stocktaking sessions since the entry into force of the Paris Agreement. Oil prices are a roller coaster, and CTA in algorithmic trading cannot be ignored. Algorithm-driven CTAs have become a formidable force in trading, potentially holding larger positions than the combined positions of large energy companies such as BP, Shell and Kocholis Oil. Algorithmic trading can exacerbate the volatility of oil prices, which can lead to distortions in the market and the marketBecome a catalyst for oil prices**。South Korea's exports rose 7% year-on-year in November8%, chip exports increased for the first time in 16 months. Canary AnnunciationSouth Korea's exports have maintained growth for two consecutive months, continuing to release a signal of recovery in global demand. Overseas companies

Altman gave an exclusive interview for the first time after "Gong Dou returned to the palace", and he was silent about the reason for his dismissal. According to him, the new board of directors will conduct an independent investigation into the incident. Pfizer fell 5% after reporting that it had abandoned the development of an experimental ** drug. Pfizer said that due to the high rate of adverse reactions caused by taking danuglipron twice a day, it will terminate the research and development, and will focus on the experiment of taking danuglipron once a day in the future. "End of Full Text".

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