The minutes of the Fed's latest monetary meeting showed that interest rate hikes were paused in December, although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell still gave a cautious view that interest rate hikes will continue to control inflation at some point in the future, while giving a view that interest rate hikes may end next year.
From this statement, the market expects two meanings: one is the end of the interest rate hike cycle;Second, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates three times next year, accumulating 75 basis points.
Because of this, there was a carnival in U.S. stocks last night, and the Dow Jones index rose by 14%, * at 37,000 points, a record high, the Nasdaq index showed an accelerated upward trend in the pattern, and last night also rose by 138%。
Judging from these phenomena, if the Fed does not raise interest rates in the future, or even starts a cycle of interest rate cuts next year, I think it is not only good for the US capital market, but also for other economies around the world, which means the possibility of currency repatriation, which is really good.
I remember that in 2022, when the United States was in the interest rate hike cycle, A-shares had been depreciating for a whole year, the U.S. raised interest rates and depreciated the RMB, and the market naturally thought that foreign capital had fled, but with the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts gradually becoming stronger, the offshore RMB has now started to rise, and the U.S. stock market rose sharply last night, but look at today's A-shares, the Shanghai Composite Index only hit nearly 17 points upward after opening high in the morning, and then began to fall, as of 15 o'clock in the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index has started from the morning It became close to 10 pips.
So, in this kind of good situation, why are A-shares still not buying?
Faced with this phenomenon, most people feel as strange as I am, and it seems that it is difficult to find the final answer. First of all, I think that the trend of A-shares in history is out of sync with U.S. stocks, even when U.S. stocks rise sharply, they have always reflected high and low on A-shares, so I don't feel anything special about today's script, but in the face of our market has been in a downturn for so long, and finally U.S. stocks have hit a record high.
In 2022, the global focus is on the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, when the depreciation of the RMB brought about the diversion of funds is the main contradiction, and now the focus of the market is that the demands of the market have changed fundamentally, whether it is the ** of major shareholders In this regard, investors have a clearer understanding of the issuance system of new shares, or how to improve the delisting mechanism of the market, and feel that it is difficult to improve the investment philosophy without changing the market probability, and it is also difficult to obtain benefits from it.
It should be said that under such a guiding concept, although the current market valuation has been quite low, although the short trap below 3000 points seems to be a clear card, but the over-the-counter funds are not entered, and the scale of the capital effect can not be formed, so negative emotions bring a negative feedback effect, maybe every time as long as the index rises slightly, the short funds seem to have a reason to sell downward.
Finally, I will talk about my personal opinion, as for how the market will develop next, I don't know, but I think that Ji Tailai is an attribute of A shares, I still clearly remember the bottom of 2000 points, the market downturn is consistent with the current situation, and it is also full of problems that need to be solved, but after the market ** After getting up, there is no problem, so for the current phenomenon of not buying A shares, we should give more tolerance, or firmly optimistic about A shares, more patience, waiting for the improvement of the system level, when the system and the emotional side form a consensus at a certain trigger point, that is, the opening of a new ** rise in A shares.
Disclaimer: The content in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational advice or tips