Tongji New Knowledge: The Outer Brain of Investment.
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Original article by tongji new knowledge.
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In November, three documents, three thunderbolts. Friends in many places feel that people are stupid.
Focus on user payments.
Priority is given to the best enterprises.
Only the operation is supplemented, not the construction.
So how to play with infrastructure investment?
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Three thunderbolts
With the successive issuance of three documents last month, Mr. Xiong's ** is about to be blown up:
* New Mechanism for Partnership with Private Sector
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Circular on Typical Cases of Accountability for Hidden Debts
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Measures for the Administration of Franchises (Revised Draft for Solicitation of Comments).
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Some friends from local development and reform and local urban investment have called ** to ask——
Mr. Xiong, the new mechanism, the new franchise, all require the focus on user payment, so what else can we do in our place?
*Paying can only make up the operation, not the construction, so who will do the construction?
Priority voter enterprises, where to find so many private enterprises?
If private enterprises are unwilling to do it, will they not do it for the project?
I have been asking our teacher Xiong, and my brain hurts.
In particular, there were two friends from central enterprises who went directly to the company to find Mr. Xiong and asked——
Mr. Xiong, in June, we just won a franchise project, with tens of billions of dollars. But we are state-owned enterprises, according to the new regulations, can we still do it?
Do you want to rectify it?
PPP elector enterprise, franchise or elect enterprise, so how can our state-owned enterprises play?
How will you live in the future?
I feel that when these three documents come out, the sky is about to fall!
As an investment and financing consultant, in the past two weeks, we have been non-stop in several places to develop and reform, finance, platform, and management committee, and have done some exchanges.
Market Impact
Friends who have read our previous issues should remember that according to the comparison of documents, the differences between the old and new mechanisms are actually mainly reflected in five aspects.
File comparison of new and old mechanics.
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However, the impact of these contents on all parties is very different.
For example, although the local development and reform is clear this time, the leading department of PPP and franchising is the development and reform, and there is no need to negotiate with the finance as before.
However, all projects and all plans have to be approved and revised, and many new problems have emerged.
Focusing on user payment and project output, which can fully cover the principal and interest of the project, and also has a certain return on investment, is it time to find social capital cooperation? Or do you do it yourself? Can you ignore it and attract investment directly?
If it is to attract investment and enterprise investment, then there is no need to issue and change approval, just directly approve or record.
Why do you need to issue a change of approval? How to approve the development and reform?
Another example is a local platform company. From February to November this year, some franchise projects were authorized to be implemented, which was written in the contract"Subsidy", can it still be cashed out? If you can't cash it out, how can you change it?
After the change, if the bank does not recognize it, or thinks that the risk has become higher, and asks for additional credit enhancement guarantee, what should I do?
Will the additional guarantee involve hidden debts? Or, the contract is annulled, re-approved, re-tendered, and re-authorized. Will the implementation agency make up for the investment in the early stage? Does the finance pay?
However, that's not the most troublesome. The most troublesome thing is, how to get the next project? Franchise projects are also required to encourage private enterprises, and according to the list of franchise projects to support private enterprises formulated by the national development and reform, the way to participate in private enterprises should be determined.
In the future, can the platform company implement the public parking lot, logistics park, and tap water project?
Is it implemented by one person, or does it have to be implemented by a private enterprise? To be honest, it's not much of a problem to implement them together.
The big question is: how to find this private enterprise?
Who will choose? Who decides? How to decide?
If you can't find a suitable private enterprise, won't the local platform be able to do local franchise projects?
If you don't do a franchise project, do local platforms really have to compete in the market?
However, this time the biggest impact is actually ignored by many people: state-owned capital.
Because,List of franchise projects supported by the new mechanism for private enterprises30 types of projects, 9 types of projects are required, sole proprietorship or holding by private enterprises; 13 categories, the proportion of equity of private enterprises shall not be less than 35%; 8 categories, supporting the participation of private enterprises.
List of private enterprise support lists.
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Only a small part of state-owned enterprises can participate, and they are all hard bones. If you really want to do it, you can only form a consortium with private enterprises.
Suddenly such a one-size-fits-all approach, what should be done with the employees of major state-owned capitals? And it can't be direct"Graduation"。
Moreover, the impact of this new mechanism and new franchise is not only about development and reform, platforms, and state-owned capital. Like banks, factoring, and implementation agencies, they all have a great impact, and many friends have told us: I feel that the sky is going to change, and the project will not be done!
It's going to be a change
However, combined with our policy study, departmental exchanges, and market research during this period, especially the 1 trillion in the previous stage"Special Refinancing Bonds"In fact, we can very well understand why those two documents should be emphasized repeatedly"User Paid"with"Operations", emphasized"Private enterprises"Finish.
Special Refinancing Bond Related Documents.
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Combined with ours"Microscopic somatosensory", this time there is a high probability that it is really wanted"It's changed"。The previous way of playing may no longer work.
It's okay to be anxious, worried, scared, but more importantly, we need to see the direction and embrace change. Everyone in the infrastructure industry must be ready to meet this change.
Speaking of this, some friends in front of the screen may say: Mr. Xiong, you speak lightly, how can it be so easy to change, besides, every place and every company is different, it's not that you can change it!
Yes.
Change is hard, change is not easy.
But what I want to say is that there are some places, some platforms, and some state-owned enterprises, which have come to the forefront of the country and quietly begun to adjust.
Heading adjustment
For example, we have recently had several tens of billions of development projects, and our customers have asked us to adjust our focus from land development (enclosure and sale of land for money) to project operation. It is necessary to rely on operating income to cover the principal and interest of tens of billions of loans.
And not only do it on the books, but also come up with an operation plan, set up an operation team in the future, and operate it in a serious way.
In this way, there will be enough users to pay to meet the documentation requirements and be in line with the policy orientation.
In addition, some local platform companies that have cooperated with us for several years suddenly told us what to do: industrial investment planning and new energy development planning.
There are even some projects that have already raised money in the first half of the year, and they have just finished the initial design, and they have asked us to help with it"EPCO linkage solution", and the bidder must bring the operator to bid together, and the operating income must not only cover the operation and maintenance costs, but also be able to repay the loan interest.
Finally, there is the targetingState-owned capitalYou can take a good look at the last article and the last sentence of the new mechanism: encourage eligible state-owned enterprises to participate in the revitalization of stock assets through the franchise model to form a virtuous circle of investment
What does it mean? Translations.
That is to sayThe document hopes that state-owned enterprises will not compete with private enterprises for new markets, but will put more energy into revitalizing stocks.
New Mechanics".
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So why do it?
According to unofficial statistics, after decades of vigorous investment, the total value of state-owned infrastructure stock assets has reached more than 300 trillion yuan. With such a large amount of assets, if it can be revitalized, it will be a huge opportunity.
Moreover, this kind of large market can only be promoted by state-owned capital.
So, friends of state-owned enterprises, the new mechanism is not cutting off your financial route, but giving you a bigger market, it depends on how you play?
If everybody is right"Revitalize the stock".If you are interested in the gameplay, you can leave a message in the comment area to tell us, if there are many people who want to see it, we can wait for a few inventory projects to land, and share with you a few new ways to revitalize the stock.
From the recent three documents, it can be seen that the sky in the field of infrastructure investment is really changing, and many places have begun to adjust!
I hope that you in front of the screen can keep up with the great changes in the industry and become the trendsetter of the times!
That's all for today's sharing.
Tongji new knowledge, explore new difficulties together!