According to the third quarter released by the central bankCurrencyAccording to the executive report, at the end of September this year, the growth rate of household deposits was as high as 165%, reaching 134 trillion yuan, once again hitting a new high. This growth rate is not only far higher than that of enterprises and enterprisesFinancial institutionsThe growth rate of deposits is also significantly higher than that of householdsLoansThe growth rate shows that residents continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth trend of deposits.
Expansion: There are two main reasons for the rapid growth of household deposits. First of all, the income of residents has increased, illustratedEconomyDevelopment and employment are in good shape, and residents have more spare money to save. Second, the decrease in residents' consumption expenditure shows that residents have consciously reduced unnecessary expenses and put money inBanks
However, from the analysis of the current situation, the main reason for the increase in residents' deposits may be the second point, that is, residentsAsset allocationUncultivated. Residents choose to deposit their fundsBanksBecause in the current oneEconomysituation, otherInvestmentsThe risk of the project is higher and the return is lower. Althoughproperty marketIt is still in the adjustment period and there is no sign of recoveryAnd ** is also sluggish, but residents have limited tolerance for risk and deposit fundsBanksThe safety of the principal can be guaranteed. However, it is clear that it is not a long-term solution for this situation to continue in the long termEconomywithInvestmentsAll have their cyclical nature, and there is bound to be a need to look for moreInvestmentsChannel.
Recently, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index has risen sharply, reaching 50% in only 26 trading days. This shows the agencyInvestmentsThere is an urgent need to promote a new round of **, and the BSE 50 Index is small and has a small trading volume, so it is easy**. The ** of the BSE 50 Index shows that the market is relatively abundant, but what the market lacks now is confidence and qualityInvestmentsAsset.
In addition, the data also shows that the stock of funds is huge. As of the end of September this year, our countryRMBItemsDeposit balanceIt reached 281 trillion yuan, a considerable part of which is precipitated funds. Although residents' deposits exceed 130 trillion yuan, a considerable part of them are long-termFixed DepositsThese funds are not used effectively and are inefficient. If this part of the funds can be fully utilized, **andproperty marketThere is no reason not to rise.
According to a report released by the central bank, in the first three quarters of this year, householdsLoansThe growth rate is only 57%, which is significantly lower than othersLoansgrowth rate. OccupantsLoansMainly used for purchasesPropertyLoansLess means:Buying a houseactivity cooling, which is related to the current oneproperty marketColder echoes.
Extended: ResidentsLoansThe decrease can be interpreted as a decline in demand for mortgages, that is, people are interested inBuying a houseThe enthusiasm waned. This is not the same as the presentproperty marketThe situation is consistent. However, if the growth rate of household deposits slows, it will be reduced to other levelsLoansFlat growth is not necessarily a bad thing. On the contrary, it could mean a recovery in demand for goods as well as a recoveryproperty marketand other assets**.
The central bank pointed out in the report that since the beginning of this year, it has continued to promoteDeposit interest ratesMarket-oriented adjustment mechanism, guidance mainlyBanksReduced for 1 year and aboveDeposit interest rates10 25 basis points to alleviate the tendency of deposits to be fixed and long-term, and to strengthen the interests of enterprises and residentsInvestmentsConsumption power, and forBanksConcessionsThe real economyFavorable conditions were created.
Therefore, if resident deposits continue to maintain rapid growth,Deposit interest ratesIt is likely to decline further. On the one hand, forBanks, the relative oversupply of deposit funds can only attract more savers by lowering interest rates. On the other hand, ifDeposit interest ratesToo high,BanksIt's also unbearable. Currently,BanksThe net interest margin is under very high pressureCommercial Banks's net interest margin has fallen to 1.5 in the third quarter73%, which has basically been reduced to an acceptable bottom line, and further reductions may be rightFinanceStability makes an impact.
Released from the central bankCurrencyIt can be seen from the report that residents' deposits continue to maintain rapid growth, and the current deposit scale has reached 134 trillion yuan. This phenomenon indicates that resident deposits are currentEconomyThe most conservative in the environmentAsset allocationway, but also reflects the residentsAsset allocationThe status quo of the famine. Despite the growth of deposits on the pairEconomyThere are some positive effects, but too fast deposit growth has not been sustainable for a long time. In order to make the most of this huge deposit fund and boost market confidence, it is necessary to look for more quality productsInvestmentsassets, activating the efficiency of the use of existing funds. At the same time, lowerDeposit interest ratesAlso helpsBanksguide residents to consume andInvestments, forThe real economydevelopment provides favorable conditions.
In the future, with the gradual slowdown in the growth rate of residents' deposits, we have reason to believe that the demand for goods will pick upproperty marketand other assets** are also expected to recover. The central bank's relevant policy regulation will also continue to play a role in guiding itDeposit interest ratesThe market-oriented adjustment forThe real economyto create a better environment. It is worth noting thatInvestmentsIt is cyclical, and you can only get better when you find the right opportunities and projectsInvestmentsEffect. Therefore, we need to keep an eye on the dynamics of the market and make a reasonable adjustmentAsset allocationto achieve wealth appreciation and preservation.