This year has entered the traditional pork consumption season, but pork ** has not been as stable and upward as before, but has continued to run at a low level. This situation is deeply troublesome for many farmers, because the pig ** has been significantly lower than the cost of breeding. This situation has attracted great attention from the capital market, especially the recent good performance of the stock prices of pork breeding enterprises, which to a certain extent indicates that the market is optimistic about the pork industry. However, judging from the experience of last year, although the financial logic of the market speculation on the pork industry is clear, there is no guarantee that it can achieve the expected returns. At present, the main contract of domestic pigs is only about 15,500 yuan, although it is higher than last year's lowest point of 13,500 yuan, but it is lower than the cost of breeding for the vast majority of farmers, and the entire industry is still in a state of loss.
Several major farming companies, such as Muyuan, Wen's and New Hope, all showed losses in the third quarter's financial figures, a worrying change compared to earnings in the same period last year. The major breeding enterprises have either turned from profits to losses, or the losses have further expanded, and it seems that they have not seen the shadow of the pig cycle that everyone has been looking forward to. So, what caused the pig cycle that had been going on for the past two years to disappear?Many people may think that the disappearance of the pig cycle is caused by a decline in consumption, but in reality, this is not the real reason. Per capita consumption has been increasing due to the continuous improvement of living standards, which is also confirmed by data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. In the first three quarters, the number of pigs slaughtered in the country reached 537.23 million, an increase of 16.93 million heads year-on-year, an increase of 33%。Specifically, the year-on-year growth of pig slaughter in the first quarter, second quarter and third quarter were respectively. 7% and 47%, and the growth rate has been expanding quarter by quarter.
Therefore, it can be seen that consumption is not the cause of the disappearance of the pig cycle, so what is the problem?The author believes that this has a lot to do with the excessive competition in the market. In the past few years, the pork industry has been increasing its investment and the scale of breeding has been expanding, resulting in a surplus market and the outbreak of diseases such as African swine fever. The combined effect of these factors has led to the increasingly serious contradiction between supply and demand in the pork market, and the regularity of the pig cycle has been lost. In the current situation, the pork industry needs to think deeply and find a path to change. For breeding enterprises, if they want to achieve better development in the highly competitive market, they must strengthen technological innovation, improve breeding efficiency and product quality, and reduce costs as much as possible in order to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. In addition, supervision and support should also be strengthened to promote the development of the pork industry in a healthier and more sustainable direction, so that consumers can eat with peace of mind and farmers can get reasonable returns.
Overall, the pork industry is facing serious challenges, but it also contains huge opportunities for development. Only through technological innovation and industry transformation can the pork industry move towards a healthier and more sustainable development track. At the same time, the guidance and support of the first party is also crucial, only the joint efforts of all parties can achieve the healthy development of the pork industry, so that farmers and consumers can get better benefits and experience. With the continuous expansion of production capacity of many large-scale breeding enterprises in recent years, the number of pork in the market has increased significantly, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand, and pork has continued to be sluggish. In the case of low pig prices last year, many breeding enterprises postponed the slaughter of pigs and fattening again in order to recover losses, which led to an increase in the number of pigs and a further surge in the market. However, demand has not grown accordingly, **naturally**. This short-term surge has broken the original balance between supply and demand, and the market has further struggled.
In the long run, the pig cycle shows an L-shaped slowing trend, that is, the pig price continues to be at a low level for a period of time, and the fluctuation range decreases, similar to the letter "L". Although pork ***, production capacity has not decreased as a result. According to the data, at the end of the third quarter, the number of live pigs in the country was still high, at 442.29 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.66 million, a decrease of 04%。In the first three quarters, pork production increased by 1.51 million tons, an increase of 36%。Although the number of fertile sows has decreased, it is still within a reasonable range of normal holdings. These data show that the pork market is still sufficient, while the demand has not reached the corresponding level, making it difficult to recover. In this case, brokerages began to cautiously assess the development prospects of pork enterprises and were no longer overly optimistic.
Judging the inflection point of the future pig cycle needs to consider a number of factors, such as the time when the pig price is continuously lower than the average cash cost of the industry, the behavior and capacity changes of pig enterprises, the development and change of swine diseases, and so on. This also makes small and medium-sized enterprises and ** face financial problems. Due to the continued downturn in pork has affected the income of breeding enterprises, the National Development and Reform Commission will cooperate with relevant departments to start the third batch of pork reserves within the year. This is quite rare, usually during the off-season of pork consumption, because the lack of consumption has led to low pig prices. However, this year is taking place during the peak season for pork consumption, which means that pork is expected to remain running smoothly for a long time. For breeding enterprises, the impact of the pork downturn is obvious. In this case, companies need to carefully assess market demand, adjust production capacity, and reduce costs. At the same time, it is also necessary to introduce corresponding policies to help enterprises resolve difficulties and stimulate market demand.
Only when all parties work together and respond together, we believe that we can eventually overcome difficulties and achieve market stability and development. According to reports, although China** issued an announcement on the purchase and storage, this did not significantly promote the recovery of pig prices. Instead, on November 25, the national average hog price fell from 1484 yuan kg down to 1453 yuan kg. The core reason for this phenomenon is that major enterprises still maintain a high level of output with strong capital support. Unless a larger company can't afford to fall, the end result is that investors don't get enough of the benefits and consumers get the benefits. From a corporate investment perspective, it may be too early to bet on a strong upswing in the pig cycle. At present, the pursuit of funds in the market for breeding enterprises is more of an expected hype, rather than a fact that is about to become a reality. However, this phenomenon has caused a lot of doubts and uneasiness in people's minds.
For breeding enterprises, should they pay more attention to market demand, rather than blindly pursuing an increase in production?For consumers, shouldn't they be more vigilant and pay attention to the quality and safety of products, not just **?In fact, the current situation is a test for both enterprises, businesses and consumers. ** There is a need to control market volatility more effectively, support high-quality enterprises, and strengthen market regulation. Enterprises need to pay more attention to market demand and continuously improve product quality and safety levels. Consumers need to pay more attention to the quality and safety of products, and not blindly pursue the best low price. For aquaculture enterprises, they need to recognize the changes in market demand, and should not only focus on the increase in production, but should pay more attention to the quality and safety of products. Only in this way can we win the trust and support of consumers, so as to occupy a place in the market competition.
At the same time, it can also drive the development of the entire aquaculture industry and promote the health, stability and prosperity of the market. For consumers, they need to pay more attention to the quality and safety of products, not just **. Choosing high-quality and low-cost products is the basic right of every consumer, and it is also the responsibility of every consumer. Only in this way can we promote the healthy development of the market and protect our own health rights and interests. In short, although the current market situation is full of challenges, it also gives us more opportunities to think and improve. Only when enterprises, enterprises and consumers work together to meet the challenges of the market can they get out of the predicament and usher in a more prosperous future.
What do you think about this matter, please leave a message in the comment area below!