The U.S. Census Bureau released the population change data of each state in the past year on December 19, and the population change of each state is related to the number of seats allocated to the federal House of Representatives, and the number of electoral college votes in each state will also change during the election, and the most recent event is the 2020 national decennial census, which has changed the number of seats in the federal House of Representatives in each state (see the figure below, recommended to preserve, necessary for the 2024** election).
Taking Colorado, which has just stripped Trump** of its candidate, for example, after the 2020 census, Colorado increased 1 seat to 8 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, so in last year's midterm elections, the state sent 8 U.S. House members (5D3R) to Congress for the first time, plus 2 U.S. senators, so in the 2024** election, Colorado's Electoral College votes reached 10 for the first time (9 in the 2020** election).
The blue-attributed Colorado, with its 10 Electoral College votes, will still be the Democratic candidate next year, so even if Trump is only disqualified in Colorado, it will not have an impact on his ** race. But once this precedent spreads to states such as Wisconsin (10 photos), Michigan (15 photos) and Pennsylvania (19 photos) in the upper picture, then it can be announced in advance that Trump has followed in the footsteps of Hillary Clinton in 2016.
In short, demographic changes will have an impact on the pattern of Congress and the election campaign. Let's look at the 2020-2023 state population change data released by the Census Bureau (see the chart below, excel**) and estimate the number of seats allocated by state in the House of Representatives in 2030.
As you can see from the chart, the population of the United States has increased by 164 in the past year (until July 1).340,000, about half of which is due to foreign immigration. The six states with the largest population growth are all from the South, namely Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee, with Texas and Florida seeing the largest population growth of 470,000 and 360,000, respectively.
The growing population includes a large number of immigrants from abroad, who are widely seen as potential Democratic votes, and if the timeline is stretched long enough, Texas fears that Texas will also lose its Republican red attribute. So even though Trump made an extreme statement that "immigration is poison injected into the blood of the United States", Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott still chose to endorse Trump**'s campaign, and coincided with Florida Governor Ron Desantis, chartering a chartered bus and plane to transport illegal immigrants to the Democratic base. This is also the reason why congressional Republicans tied the border crisis to the Ukraine aid bill and forced the Democrats to tighten their immigration policies.
Eight states have seen population declines in the past year: New York, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Oregon, Pennsylvania and West Virginia (see Excel for details).
Although the next 10-year census (2030) is still far away, the number of seats in the House of Representatives (Electoral College Votes) for each state can be judged based on the population change data of the past year.
Among them, Texas and Florida have benefited the most with demographic change, and the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will increase by 4 and 3 seats respectively in 2030, further enhancing the state's voice in CongressThe states with the highest number of seats lost were California with 4 seats, New York with 3 seats and Illinois with 2 seats. The mixed news for the Republican Party is that it has some say in the division of districts between Texas and Florida, and that population growth will weaken partisanship across the state.
Of course, there are still seven years to go until 2030, and it remains to be seen how the population will change and how it will affect the congressional landscape and the election.