Huawei's release of the mate60 this year has triggered a hot rush in the market, and it also marks the official breakthrough of China's chip manufacturing process technology into the advanced level of 7nm, which is good news worthy of celebration by the Chinese people. At the same time, a Taiwanese company that once "kicked" Huawei ushered in a sales waterloo and is heading for shock.
This Taiwanese company is the well-known TSMC. When talking about chips, TSMC must be mentioned, this sentence can well summarize TSMC's position in the global chip industry, but at present, judging from the data released by TSMC, the performance of this giant is not good.
According to The Paper on December 8, TSMC announced the latest sales data, with sales of 2060 in NovemberNT$300 million, down 75%, a month-on-month decline of 153%, which means that TSMC's sales have slipped by 1 10 compared to October. By querying TSMC's financial report, it can be seen that TSMC's total revenue in Q3 was 1724.8 billion US dollars, compared with 201 in the previous yearThe $6.3 billion revenue level decreased by 1464%。
Before we get into today's topic, we must first briefly introduce the business. This is very necessary!If you can't read TSMC, you can't really understand the chip industry, and you can't understand the trend of the United States' suppression of China's chip industry.
A company that can trigger a global recession.
Is this title too sensational?Don't worry, listen to the author.
The founder of TSMC is Zhang Zhongmou, known as the godfather of Taiwan's semiconductors, who studied in the United States in his early years, and has advanced study experience at Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Stanford University, and later worked in the American semiconductor giant Texas Instruments for 20 years, and founded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in Taiwan in 1987.
The emergence of TSMC has broken the traditional model of the semiconductor industry chain and created the foundry model, which has stripped out the manufacturing process of semiconductors and specialized in this field. It is also commonly known as the "foundry model". According to statistics, since the beginning of this century, TSMC has occupied more than 50% of the global foundry market share. The market share in 2021 reached 595%。
Focusing on the sub-14nm process technology, TSMC monopolizes half of the world's chip production capacity. This means that if TSMC does not start work, consumer electronic devices, including smartphones, will be seriously out of stock, which means that many cutting-edge technology industries, including artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and autonomous driving, will not be able to make progress, and all downstream industries and companies of chips will be hit hard in the short term, which will inevitably trigger a large-scale recession in the global economy.
In the field of technology, TSMC's advantage is significant, although Samsung Electronics took the lead in mass production of 3nm process chips, but "Economy**" pointed out in a previous report that TSMC is at least 8 years ahead of competitors in technology. 85% of the world's new product prototypes are contributed by TSMC, and on June 27 this year, TSMC disclosed at the annual general meeting of shareholders that the yield rate of its latest 3nm process has reached 90%, creating a record that surprised the industry. This also means that in the field of 3nm chip manufacturing, TSMC has gained a core cost advantage.
The smaller the number, the smaller the size and the higher the integration of the transistor and other microstructures, which will provide the chip with less energy consumption and higher performance, especially for smartphones, the more advanced the chip process can effectively extend the battery life and reduce energy consumption, which is an indispensable component for product iteration.
TSMC's current process level has reached 3nm, and it is increasing the production process layout of 2nm or even 1nm. Strong technical advantages provide TSMC with unparalleled core competitiveness in the market.
On February 8 this year, reference news quoted a report from Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" pointing out that TSMC's market value has reached $600 billion, surpassing Alibaba, Tencent and other Internet giants to become the company with the highest market value in Asia.
Why is TSMC, which is so successful, having such a big Waterloo in 2023?
Kick Huawei away and reap the consequences.
First of all, the impact of the global economic environment, the global economy is cold, and consumer demand is declining, as a company of this size, TSMC will inevitably usher in a decline in sales, just like the global "core shortage crisis" in the past two years, TSMC's sales revenue rose rapidly.
But the biggest reason is not because of this, but because TSMC "kicked" Huawei, the former second largest customer, in 2020, resulting in the loss of revenue pillars, and at the critical moment, TSMC chose to side with the United States and obeyed the United States' chip suppression policy against China.
In 2019, Huawei HiSilicon contributed 1528 to TSMCWith a revenue of NT$700 million, a year-on-year growth rate of 82%, it became TSMC's second largest customer in the world. At that time, although Apple was still TSMC's largest customer relying on a contribution of NT$247.2 billion, the growth rate was only 10%. If this trend continues, Huawei HiSilicon will become TSMC's largest single customer.
TSMC's wrong choice directly led to the company's predicament today, and the Huawei Mate60 created a shipment of 2.4 million units in just 8 weeks after its launch, setting a new record for Huawei's previous shipments. If TSMC is still providing foundry services for Huawei, the SoC chip order for Mate60 alone will be enough to support revenue and deliver a brilliant report card to the market.
According to a report by Xinjiapi's Lianhe Zaobao on October 6, TSMC's stock price has continued to start since mid-June this year, and as of the date of publication of the report, its market value has evaporated by $77 billion. This is equivalent to TSMC losing a "China Telecom" in 4 months. It can be seen that TSMC's decline is not temporary, and the company is heading for shock.
It is still unknown who the flowers will be.
TSMC has choked the throat of the global semiconductor industry, which the Americans see very clearly, so while relying on TSMC, they are also seeking to bring TSMC under control. In the third quarter, revenue from the United States accounted for 70% of TSMC's total revenue, and the over-reliance on a single market is causing TSMC to gradually lose the initiative and become an obedient marionette.
TSMC's plan to build factories in the United States has been vigorous, with a total investment of $40 billion, which is one of the largest foreign direct investments in the United States in history, and the trend is very obvious.
In the contest between the two major countries, TSMC became a victim, all because it was on the wrong side, and thus completely lost the advantage of development. Next year's global economic growth is still expected to be cold, and only China, the largest developing country, still has strong growth potential, but this market cake may no longer have anything to do with TSMC.
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