At the beginning of the new year on the Korean Peninsula, a naval artillery training caused a tense atmosphere, causing the smell of gunpowder to spread over the peninsula. South Korea not only gave verbal warnings, but also responded with targeted training. This move has escalated the already tense situation in an instant, and the signs that the Korean Peninsula may become the global focus are becoming increasingly prominent, and there is even a tendency to replace the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. South Korea originally tried to force North Korea to "retreat in the face of difficulties" through a "two-pronged approach", but North Korea ignored South Korea's warnings. On January 7, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un, issued a stern warning directly to South Korea, saying that South Korea had better not provoke because the North Korean army was ready. North Korea** claims that this year is the most likely year for conflict between the two Koreas, but the reality is that both sides are restraining each other, and neither dares to take the lead. On the one hand, the two sides are evenly matched, and provoking a conflict will inevitably lead to a defeat for both sides and a heavy price. On the other hand, whoever provokes the conflict first will be under tremendous ** pressure.
The two Koreas insist on their own words, each trying to shift the blame to the other, and it is difficult to determine who is responsible for this round of disputes. North Korea now dares to go head-to-head with the United States and South Korea, and this is based on their own military strength. Will the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorate further, will it spiral out of control, and how likely is it that a conflict will break out?In the past, the balance of the situation on the Korean Peninsula was clearly tilted in favor of South Korea, which was backed by the United States, while North Korea was relatively weak. But now the situation is different, North Korea has stood up, and they have the strength to counter South Korea and the United States behind them. Last year, North Korea not only showed the United States and South Korea that they have nuclear weapons, but also made progress in military strength, testing the more advanced "Hwasong-18" intercontinental ballistic missile, launching the first submarine with nuclear attack capabilities, and also launching the first military reconnaissance satellite. The year of a turning point in North Korea's national power has passed, and Kim Jong-un said last year was a landmark period.
North Korea has carried out a series of military build-ups, not to provoke South Korea, but to declare to the United States, South Korea and even Japan that North Korea is no longer a weak country and is now capable of protecting itself. In the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea is likely to use nuclear weapons if its conventional military strength is inferior to that of the United States and South Korea, and this nuclear war is inevitable, and this is what the United States and South Korea fear the most. Because this sword of "nuclear war" hangs over their heads, the United States and South Korea do not dare to act rashly, lest they touch the bottom line of the DPRK. In addition, the situation in the United States and South Korea is not conducive to provoking a conflict between the two Koreas. South Korea will hold an election for members of the National Assembly in April this year, which can be described as an important test for the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. Despite his considerable power, Yoon's National Power Party is not the largest party in the National Assembly, which means that his actions are limited. Therefore, in the upcoming "midterm exam", Yoon Suk-yeol aims for the People's Power Party to defeat the largest opposition party and thus gain control of the National Assembly.
He needs to make a fuss about the situation on the Korean Peninsula, transfer some domestic contradictions, and consolidate his ruling foundation. It is not that he does not lack room to make a fuss about the situation on the Korean Peninsula, but he needs to grasp the balance and avoid going too far. The South Korean people can accept that the two Koreas can confront each other, but not conflict. Once this degree is crossed, Yoon Suk-yeol will not only fail to achieve his goal, but may also reap the consequences. On the U.S. side, it will be held in November, and the incumbent Biden will inevitably focus his work on this matter and strive for re-election. Therefore, it is only natural that he will pay less attention to the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Since the United States is in its first year, Biden is unlikely to adjust his policy toward North Korea in the short term, and is expected to continue his current position. It is also important to note that the United States is already involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, so it may be difficult to devote energy and resources to a potential inter-Korean conflict. If the United States does not devote its energy, South Korea will not dare to "take a step beyond the thunder pool."
As a result, the two Koreas have engaged in fierce rhetoric with each other, as if to destroy each other, but both sides know deep down that this conflict will not really happen. Of course, in order to ensure that the "powder keg" of the Korean Peninsula is not detonated, it is not enough to rely on the immediate "moat", and other measures need to be taken to reduce the level of tension in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The parties are holding talks through the good offices of other countries or international organizations.