Some friends asked, the three-year rolling annualized return of the partial stock hybrid ** index.
Already "-1278%".
After falling to "-10%" a few years ago, it struggled for a few days, and then after the year, it plummeted down "without the slightest resistance."
This is related to the rapid rise after New Year's Day in 2021 and the rapid increase after New Year's Day this year.
To be honest, it doesn't make much sense to care about this data after falling to "-10%".
If you believe this data, touching "-10%" means falling to the bottom zone.
But the world is impermanent, after all, it is a law summarized from historical data, which can be referred to, not blindly believed, otherwise the world will be much simpler. For example, in the past few days, no one expected the start of the year to be so miserable, and the five consecutive clouds pulled down the data all of a sudden.
There is no information advantage of the institution, and there is no professionalism and decisiveness of the institution. Compared with institutions, the biggest advantage is that the money is their own, and as long as they are not leveraged, they will not be washed out
So I have always said that idle money investment, long-term thinking, and don't use leverage, what I am afraid of is the situation these days.
Speaking of leverage, when I read other people's year-end summaries in the brainstorming record, there were a few leveraged sharing, which was simply a warning to me to fear the market.
Case 1:
The subject background is not bad, the technology company 996 can have 50-100w incremental funds into the market every year.
At the end of 2023, it will hold 3 IM (CSI 1000 Stock Index ** Zhang IF (CSI 300 Stock Index ** Zhang IH (SSE 50 Stock Index ** Zhang Mo (CSI 1000 Stock Index Options).
The investment is 1.7 million, and the contract value is more than 6 million according to the 4 times leverage he said.
But I didn't expect it to continue to fall sharply at the beginning of the year, and I received a margin call from the company, and then transferred 13 to the account70,000, and also closed the position of IH (SSE 50 stock index **), which fell less, and the rest of the money was bought into a call option on MO (CSI 1000 stock index option).
After that, continue to sell ** to make sure that there is money to make up for the deficit in the ** account.
There are also people who left a message under his comment, and it was also this kind of operation in October 2022, and after carrying it for a month, it was liquidated at the lowest point, and I still can't forget that month, I hope the landlord can survive.
Case 2:
This is more leveraged, at the beginning of 2023, it is still 4 times leverage, with a principal of 2.72 million, and he bought 11.01 million assets.
In 2023, it will lose 43%, and the principal will fall to 1.17 million at the end of the year, but it still holds assets worth 9.96 million, and the leverage ratio has soared to 851%.
is 40 years old, does not believe in fate, whether there is a life or not, he wants to force a fortune.
To be honest, this old brother's historical gains are okay.
From 110,000 in 2013 to 2.89 million in 2021.
In 2023, the account rate of return will also rush to 40%, earning more than 800,000 yuan. But I didn't expect that after that, ** went like that, and by September, the money earned had fallen, and it became -43% at the end of the year, with a loss of 880,000.
The coming-of-age story is also inspiring.
His job income is not high, 3500 a month.
Relying on my father, mother, and my own intermittent investment, I invested a total of 390,000 yuan, and then rolled to 1.21 million yuan in April 2018, so I decided to resign and invest full-time.
But I didn't expect it to start with a critical hit, and I lost 50% in 2018. Then at the end of 2018, it was leveraged 4 times, and the principal of 650,000 held a market value of 2.06 million, earning 90% in 2019, turning the tables in one fell swoop.
In 2020 and 2021, it will also be okay, and the principal will be as high as 3 million. But in 2022 and 2023, he will continue to lose a lot, and the principal will return to 1.17 million, which is similar to when he chose to invest full-time in April 2018
Of course, people who are leveraged may have already thought about the consequences, have a strong ability to bear it, and can bear it.
In the first few days of the year, the people who are really uncomfortable are actually the people who buy snowballs.
Caught off guard, the earnings that were about to arrive flew so suddenly.
For ease of understanding, here's a brief introduction to the snowball (not necessarily comprehensive, roughly that means):
Not a snowball**, but a bet on it.
You sign a VAM agreement with the broker, which reads as follows:
1) Suppose the ** price of CSI 500 is 5000 points now, in the next year, if the CSI 500 runs between 20%, that is, between 4000 and 6000 points, and has never fallen below 4000 points, nor has it ever risen below 6000 points, you will be given 15% of the income after that year.
2) Determine a certain day of each month as the observation day, if on this day, the CSI 500 rises above 6000 points, the brokerage will give you an annualized return of 15%, the professional term is "knock out".
Note that it is an annualized return, and the specific amount of income is linked to the holding time. For example, if it rises above 6,000 points after just one year, it can give 15% gain, but if it rises above 6,000 points after half a year, it can only give 15% 2=75% of the gain.
3) The bottom area is not observed once a month, but every trading day. On any trading day, as long as it falls below 4000 points, the potential loss after that will be borne by you, the professional term is "knock in".
Now, ** has fallen to the brink of knocking in, so there has been quite a lot of discussion about snowballs these days.
According to the broker's calculations,The snowball linked to the CSI 500 has a large number of contracts between 4300 and 5200 points, and about 10 billion will be knocked in for every 100 points.
The CSI 1000 also has a large number of contracts between 4600 and 5300 points.
The latest ** price, the CSI 500 has fallen to 5181, falling into the knock-in zone.
The CSI 1000 has fallen to 5553, which is a stone's throw away from the knock-in zone.
Next, if ** continues to fall, there will be a large number of snowball products linked to CSI 500 and CSI 1000 that will continue to knock in.
What is the effect of knock-in?
Brokers can't control the rise and fall of **, so after selling snowball products, they will hedge, and the hedging direction is opposite to **rise and fall, **up to short the stock index**, down to long the stock index**.
In the process of approaching the "knock-in", ** fell all the way, and the brokerage increased its position all the way to long. But when the "knock-in" really appears, the bearer of potential losses is transferred from the brokerage to the investor, and the brokerage does not need to keep the long position of the stock index, but sell it and become short.
If the follow-up ** continues to fall and triggers more "knock-in", it will be a bit embarrassing.
*Disclaimer: The content of the article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.