Recently, Venezuela's Maduro ordered the military to enter a state of "full combat readiness" and announced the annexation of the "Essequibo region" controlled by neighboring Guyana, making South America once again in the global spotlight. However, the roots of this incident can be traced back to two factors. First of all, the issue of historical legacies is an important factor leading to sovereignty disputes in the region. The region originally belonged to Venezuela, but in 1814 the British seized sovereignty over Guyana from the Netherlands, gradually occupying the Essequibo region. Although in 1899 the United States and Britain divided their sphere of influence in South America and assigned the region to Guiana, Venezuela has never recognized this "international arbitration" and still retains its claim to the region. Therefore, Venezuela's annexation of the region is seen as a just act of "reconquista". Second, the conflict of practical interests and the involvement of the great power game are also the reasons for the escalation of the region. Maduro's warning to U.S. companies expresses Venezuela's reluctance to see major powers intervene in the region. And 2 3 of Guyana's land and 15 per cent of its population are controlled in the "Essequibo region", and the loss of this area would be "devastating" for Guyana.
As a result, the practical interests of the two countries are in serious conflict. Although the sovereignty dispute over the "Essequibo region" has been a long-standing one, the two sides have now entered the point of "fighting each other". It also reminds us that the international community needs to pay more attention to issues left over from the past and to work towards promoting the peaceful settlement of disputes among States. The recent U.S. discovery of large amounts of oil and gas in the Essequibo region has sparked substantial cooperation between U.S. oil companies and Guyana**. It is expected to produce 620,000 barrels of oil per day and is expected to produce 1 million barrels per day in the short term, making Guyana the 25th largest oil producer in the world. However, the land, which originally belonged to Venezuela, is now being explored and mined by the United States, and Venezuela is unhappy about it. It's like someone else extracting our oil in the South China Sea and taking the islands for themselves, and anyone will feel uneasy. Therefore, Venezuela finally has run out of patience, and if it is only "verbal" ** and does not take real action, then in a few years the Essequibo region will be flooded with American oil wells, and it will be more difficult for Venezuela to recapture this territory. On the other hand, Venezuela's surprise action may have the shadow of a "great power game".
Maduro is preparing for the "reconquista", announcing a "general mobilization" and sending contingents to the disputed areas, while he also plans to visit Moscow. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency on December 5, in the context of the escalation of border tensions between Venezuela and Guyana, Russia's assistant for international affairs Ushakov said that "Maduro in Venezuela is about to visit Moscow", and stressed that the two sides have already agreed that "we will determine a specific date in the next few days." It stands to reason that Venezuela does not need "foreign aid" if it is just a "heads-up", for the simple reason that Guyana is too weak. Russian expert Alexei Leonkov noted that the gap in military power between the two countries is significant, and Venezuela has 1230,000 soldiers, 6 divisions and 1 paratrooper brigade, equipped with about 300 tanks, hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles, hundreds of artillery systems, and Mi-35, Mi-26, Mi-17V5*** And Guyana "does not even have an army", only the remaining former colonial police force, without the assistance of the United States and Britain, "it is difficult to support itself on its own". In the case of Guyana, the United States is not only willing to help, but also very "firm".
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed Washington's "unwavering support" of Guyana's sovereignty and conducted a joint military Xi with Guyana on December 7, codenamed Operation Flight. Maduro desperately needs Russia's support at this juncture, and while not asking for too much toughness, it is "indispensable." For example, when the United States was planning a coup d'état in Venezuela and trying to capture Maduro, Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers suddenly appeared in the air and brought with them hundreds of Russian soldiers, which eventually forced the United States to abandon its plan to attack Maduro's house. Why is this so?Because they fear that this could lead to a direct conflict between the United States and Russia, or even trigger a "nuclear war". Therefore, as long as Putin sends reinforcements to South America to assist, but not participate in, the "reconquista" operation in Venezuela is enough to constitute a huge deterrent to the United States. The United States will either personally participate in the confrontation with the Russian army, or choose to support Guyana and conduct a "human war". However, we can't help but think about whether this ** person is capable of doing it if Guyana's foundation is very weak
The Ukrainian army is able to be "self-reliant" because of the experience they have gained in the war in Donbass and have experienced servicemen as a base, while Guyana does not have such conditions. Therefore, even if the United States hands over the M1A2 main battle tank and F-16 fighter jets to Guyana, to be honest, these equipment are "useless", because it is too late, this ** person is too weak. Therefore, if Putin sends troops to South America, it will bring great trouble to the United States. The United States, of course, can easily defeat this Russian army, but for Moscow, how to explain its actions?Do the two sides want a "showdown" and start a nuclear war?Washington would not dare to take such a risk. However, if the Russian army is allowed to enter South America and support the military operation in Venezuela, then its own backyard will never be at peace, which is tantamount to "falling into the mud" at home, and the image is also embarrassing. As we all know, the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict has consumed a lot of energy from the United States, and the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks have also begun to see the light of day. If Putin opens a second front in South America, then the United States will be even more distracted, and will it be more beneficial for Russia?
Therefore, it can be said that the timing of the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana is "very sensitive", involving both urgent conflicts of interest and the shadow of great power games. Maduro's trip to Moscow at this time became the best proof of this. Back then, Putin kept Maduro's life and status, and now it's time for Maduro to return the favor.