The tourism and hotel sector has a significant performance today, with a sharp rise as a whole, and it was once **5 points in the intraday.
Of course, this is due to the weight of the target, the performance of China Duty Free.
We review the historical performance of CDF:
Looking at the performance trend, the fourth quarter is often a "debt repayment" cycle. With the exception of 20 years, fourth-quarter results tend to be below the full-year average. However, the net profit in the fourth quarter of this year was 1.5 billion, which was close to the second quarter and significantly exceeded the third quarter.
We know that the focus of China Duty Free is on Hainan, and Hainan in the fourth quarter is actually an off-season, which exceeds expectations in the off-season, which means that the travel consumption environment is optimistic, and it is also showing the possible growth potential next year.
Then, it can be said that the performance of China Duty Free exceeded expectations. Think about it from a valuation perspective. After getting the annual results, the PE of the exemption is now 25 times (** later). 20 years ago, it was more than 28 times higher. Looking further back, the historical 16-17 year low is also above 25 times. The further 13-year limit valuation is about 22 times, but 13 years is too long, and it is not the same thing as the current business after the transformation of China Duty Free.
It can be said that the current China Duty Free is at the absolute low point of valuation, and the performance turn shows that there is growth momentum, and there is nothing to say about the rise.
Let's take a look at the sales of duty-free on the islands on New Year's Day. The overall repair is good (the data I omitted), the key customer unit price of 6800+ exceeded the expected 6500, indicating that it is not the performance of the price reduction, and the increase in gross profit also shows that the real demand is boosted.
Of course, the total value of growth is slightly lower than expected, so the bulk of the profit contribution is still in the operation and maintenance of the airport, which can be said to be supported by a wave of policy dividends. That's what an analysis is.
If we analyze the exemption as an event. As a result, the demand for travel consumption is beyond expectations, and there is real room for price increases.
In addition, we can strengthen the valuation of the introduced hotels. Jin Jiang is the leader in the leisure and entertainment sector, and in terms of market capitalization, it is the first place under the China Duty Free Group. Then the chain hotel is an asset-heavy industry, and we consider PB more in valuation. In '08, the lowest PB was 149, which is the absolute low. 13 years, 169, 16, 163, 19, 161, 20 years, 174。The extreme value of last week's low is 178。
Although Jinjiang is not like the absolute historical low point of the China Duty Free, the upper and lower spaces are around 5 points of the average. In the tourism and hotel industry, the valuation of the two major weights is near historical lows, so the entire industry will not be expensive in general. The bottom is the bottom, and whether it can continue to rise depends on the performance of the "longest Spring Festival in history".
If the cow is not a cow, just consume the cow.