Today (13th), the People's Bank of China released financial statistics for November. The data showed that at the end of November, the balance of broad money (M2) was 2912 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Renminbi loans increased by 109 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the stock of social financing was 37639 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94%。
What do you think of the November financial data?What does the data say?CCTV reporters will sort out the five hot issues for you and take you to interpret the financial data in November in multiple dimensions.
What was the loan growth in November?
Loans maintained a steady growth trend in November.
In November, RMB loans increased by 109 trillion yuan, over one trillion yuan, nearly flat year-on-year, basically in line with the general expectations of industry insiders. Considering that November is a traditional credit month and the base of the same period last year is high, this increase is not low.
At the same time, experts said that the monthly increase in November seems to be slightly less than the same period last year, but it is in the context of the major transformation of the real estate market, the resolution of debt risks of local financing platforms, and the reform of small and medium-sized banks in key areas such as risk prevention process.
The increase in loans in the first 11 months has been comparable to that of the whole of last year, and the strength of credit support for the real economy has remained solid.
If we look at the increase in loans in the first 11 months, the number of new loans from January to November has reached 216 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 year-on-year5 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to the whole of last year, reflecting the strength of credit support for the real economy remains solid. At the same time, the growth rate of loan balance at the end of November was 108%, which is still significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate.
The central bank said that in the new stage of development, the analysis of financial aggregate indicators should have a more diversified perspective. From the perspective of M2 and the growth rate of social finance, it is at a level that basically matches and is higher than the growth rate of the nominal economy, and the financial support for the real economy is strong.
What can be reflected in the trend of loans?
The stable trend of loans reflects the continued stabilization and improvement of the economy, and the introduction of timely and effective policies.
In late October, it was announced that it would increase the treasury bonds under project management by 1 trillion yuan during the year, and the deficit ratio would be raised to 38%, market confidence has been greatly boosted, with the acceleration of the issuance of ** bonds, the demand for supporting loans for infrastructure projects has also increased accordingly.
The central bank's policy care has shown results, and efforts have been made to promote the steady growth of loans.
Since the beginning of this year, MLF has maintained excess monthly renewal, with a cumulative increase of more than 1 in the first 11 months7 trillion yuan, strong support for reasonable and abundant liquidity. In November, the People's Bank of China, together with the State Administration of Financial Supervision and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, held a symposium for financial institutions to guide financial institutions to support the stable development of real estate, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, and at the same time focus on strengthening the balanced provision of credit, and consider the loan delivery from November to December this year and the beginning of next year.
What is the credit structure?
The credit structure has increased and decreased, and the quality and efficiency of serving the real economy have improved markedly.
In recent years, the increment and proportion of loans in key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, manufacturing, green development, and inclusive small and micro enterprises have increased significantly. At the end of October, loans to "specialized, special and new", small and medium-sized technology enterprises, and high-tech enterprises increased year-on-year respectively7%, which is significantly higher than the growth rate of various loans in the same period (10.).9%）。The growth rate of medium and long-term loans of these three types of enterprises in October reached8%, maintaining rapid growth.
More attention should be paid to the efficiency of the use of funds.
Experts said that China's stock of money and credit is already very large, and by revitalizing the circulation of stock funds and optimizing the increment of credit, the efficiency of capital use has been improved, and unit credit can support more economic growth. The PBOC will make good use of various structural monetary policy tools, and if necessary, create new tools to guide financial institutions to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, green transformation, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and digital economy.
The low growth rate of M1 is that the funds are idling?
The low growth rate of M1 is a reflection of the transformation of the economic structure and the development of the market, and it is not a simple idle flow of funds.
In November, narrow money (M1) increased by 13%, the growth rate was 0.0 lower than the end of last month and the same period last year, respectively6 and 33 percentage points.
Experts said that 85% of the composition of M1 is unit demand deposits, and M1 has grown rapidly in the past, mainly due to the pre-sale funds formed by residents buying new houses and the precipitation of funds from local financing platforms. With the major transformation of real estate and the rapid advancement of localized bonds, it will lead to a decrease in the demand deposits of relevant entities. At the same time, with the development of the financial market and the enhancement of enterprises' liquidity management capabilities, enterprises' demand for demand deposits has gradually declined, and the role of M1 as an indicator reflecting enterprises' short-term payment ability has been greatly weakened.
What is the level of interest rates on corporate loans?
Interest rates have remained downward and the cost of comprehensive social financing has been steadily declining.
From January to November, the interest rate on corporate loans was 389%, down 03 percentage points, which continued to remain at a historical low since statistics began. Loan interest rates continued to decline at historically low levels, effectively enhancing the momentum for the recovery of the real economy.
Experts said that at present, the marginal easing of internal and external constraints has further enhanced the effectiveness of monetary policy autonomy. As China's economy continues to recover, the inversion of the yield of 10-year Sino-US bonds has narrowed from more than 220 basis points to about 160 basis points since November, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated significantly. At the same time, domestic financial institutions have steadily promoted the decline of deposit interest rates, especially medium and long-term deposit interest rates, which is conducive to alleviating the tendency of fixed-term deposits, increasing the investment and consumption momentum of enterprises and residents, and creating favorable conditions for banks to make profits on the real economy.