Although there was not much good news on Monday, the dollar still showed some repair, and the U.S. stock market performed weaker on Monday, and the short-term risk appetite was indeed poor, with a fluctuation of more than $1,000, which was too ugly, while the price continued to remain tepid. USD*** analysis
USD*** analysis
In terms of economic data released by the United States on Monday night, weak demand dragged down, and high interest rates began to affect spending, new orders in the United States fell more than expected in October, falling to the lowest level in three and a half years, but the data also failed to cause a significant drag on the dollar index, and the dollar on Monday instead appeared some corresponding **, which seems to be some correction to the previous trend, and the stage may be the dollar shows signs of stopping, but before 104 fails to repair, it may not be able to maintain a bullish view.
On the news side, the Federal Reserve ** on Monday for the time being, there is no new view released, from the analysis of the market, there is a view that the Fed's more proactive easing cycle indicates that the medium-term downward trend of the dollar may be unfolding. However, some analysts said that the financial market was too optimistic about the Fed's rate cut next year. However, the author looks at the phased US dollar or there is a certain short-covering, but the foundation is uncertain after all.
From a technical point of view, it was previously believed thatThe U.S. dollar index has been hindered upward, but there is also some resilience to the downside, and the expectation that the U.S. dollar index will remain in the range of 103-104 has begun to fluctuate significantly, and this week's non-farm payrolls data may become a new fuse for the market. If nothing changes, the range-bound trend may continue.
Support: 103
Pressure: 104
Beautiful ** field
The market is still in a wait-and-see atmosphere this week, whether it is China's CPI or the United States' non-farm payrolls data will be released this week, at the same time, some institutions said that the market may be higher than the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024, the market's short-term risk appetite began to change, U.S. stocks failed to continue the recent strong momentum on Monday night, the overall shape of the Dow and the S&P 500 has not been destroyed, the pressure on technology stocks is more obvious, and the short-term still needs to pay attention to the rhythm of differentiation.
US30 Dow Jones
The Dow Jones, which had previously been believed, was further expected to launch a new shock to 37,000. For short-term retracement support, it is recommended to look at the 35700 line. Considering that 36000 has been repaired in the short term, after the short-term adjustment, it is enough to continue to maintain the bullish rhythm, and the small-cycle support is raised to the 36000 line. Even if there is a retracement on Monday, 36000 can still be stabilized, and the stage support is recommended to be carried out around the 36000 line.
Support: 36000
Pressure: 37000
NAS100 NASDAQ-100 Index
Nasdaq 100, previously said, the overall form is still relatively twisted, indicating that the market stage of the traditional industry attention is higher, Nasdaq 100 still needs a certain degree of swing, small cycle support to see the 15800 line, Monday night is a smooth fall, once stepped back on the 20th **, if it can be stabilized, although here is a new starting point, otherwise further or step back on the 30th **15350 nearby.
SPX500 S&P 500 Index
As for the S&P 500, it was previously believed that the idea of maintaining bullishness around the 10-day line still exists, and last Friday continued to maintain an upward rhythm along the 10-day line, and it is only a matter of time before it breaks through 4600 further, and it may further rush towards around 4800 in 2022. Monday's retracement is normal, and it is not very embarrassing to maintain the 10-day line.
Market XAUUSD
The current manic trend has indeed caused many arguments in the market, including many analysts who say that the current favorable factors continue to gather so that gold prices have strong upside potential, but the author still maintains the previous view, that is, the current ** may rise too fast, which implies some opportunities for adjustment, the wide range fluctuations that appeared on Monday imply that the short-term need for moderate adjustment to deal with, just in time for the effect of the US dollar index on Monday, and the short-term patience to wait for the ** back to step in place.
From a technical point of view, Monday's ** It is indeed a somewhat surprising performance, although it once broke through 2100, but on Monday night it still stepped back to the 2020 line, if 2020 can not be stabilized, then it is only a matter of time to fall towards 2000, stabilize 2020, the situation is not too bad, the cycle of slow repair is still worth paying attention to, 2150 will break through sooner or later, but the time needs to take longer, short-term pressure can first look at the 2040 line, and further look at 2060.
Support: 2020
Pressure: 2040
**Analyze usoil
On Monday, an analysis noted that OPEC+ found itself in a trap"A vicious circle", that is, sacrificing market share in exchange for ** that is still higher than the marginal cost. Oil prices could fall to $70 barrel lows by the end of 2024 in the face of growing spare capacity More views suggest that OPEC+'s recent additional production cuts have exhausted the group's "last bullet" as it faces increasing spare capacity issues. In addition, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said that OPEC+ oil production cuts could be "absolutely" continued beyond the first quarter if needed.
Based on the above point of view, the author still maintains the previous view, the overall situation of the range has not changed much, if it continues to break, then further decline may still be on the way.
From a technical point of view,Previously, the author said that the expectation of building a new interregion between 74 and 78 is increasing, and I recommend maintaining the view on the new range. If 74 cannot be stabilized, reasonable support can be found near 72, and any sudden break up or down may mean that there is a long or short inducement behavior, after all, the current volatility center can not change too much. Breaking 72, further support can be seen around 70, OPEC+ will not sit idly by at least. The pressure of the small cycle is more pronounced around 75.
Support: 72
Pressure: 75