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Entering the last week of 2023, although the weather is cold, the game of the organic silicon market will not be "frozen", and there are new changes last week, first of all, silicon metal has risen at a high level again, and the pressure on the cost side has intensified, and secondly, the price of monomer factories has finally achieved results after several price drops, and the bottom of the middle and lower reaches has increased, and the low-level transaction situation has improved. As of December 24, DMC rose to 13,900 yuan ton, compared with the previous floor price of 13,500 yuan**400. Other monomer factories also recovered their losses and returned to more than 14,000.
This week, silicon metal is still expected to exist, and some monomer factories in the northern region are planned to be overhauled at the end of the month. The downstream demand is general, and the enthusiasm for stocking falls with the high, and how to consider the cost, inventory and demand side of the single factory is still the key to the market game. At present, the low-price monomer factory has a good order volume, the price is willing to be sufficient, and the tentative nature is inevitable, and the unique leading factory, whether DMC can continue to 14,500 yuan ton is the biggest highlight of this week. Original editing, please do not do it without authorization**).
The cost was put under pressure again, and some devices took the initiative to reduce the burden at the end of the month
Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions: 1 plant with an annual output of 180,000 tons is operating normally;2 load-reducing devices resumed normal operation;The 400,000-ton unit in Zhangjiagang maintained low-load operation
North China: Hebei 200,000 tons of plant resumed normal operation;Inner Mongolia 2 units at the end of the month storage maintenance plan;
Central China: 360,000 tons of units in Hubei and 500,000 tons of units in Jiangxi maintained low-load operation
Shandong: 1 plant with an annual output of 80,000 tons is operating normally;1 plant with an annual output of 600,000 tons is running under load1 150,000-ton plant long-term shutdown;
Northwest China: 1.4 million units in Shihezi and Shanshan, Xinjiang, are operating normally;
Southwest China: Sichuan 180,000 tons of equipment is operating normally;The 200,000-ton plant in Yunnan is operating normally;
Overall: the overall operating rate last week was still around 70%, with the cost climbing, the first improvement is as difficult as the sky, and the active load reduction device at the end of the month increased again.
The price spread of 107 rubber has narrowed, and the cost of silicone oil has been strongly supported
107 rubber market: Last week, the domestic 107 rubber market was mainly stable. As of December 24, the domestic 107 rubber market was 14,600-15,000 yuan tons. On the cost side, the price gap between DMC and 107 rubber has narrowed, and the downstream price reduction sentiment has slowed down. ** end, the recent 107 glue is higher than market expectations, new orders are limited, but a number of single factories can be used by themselves, and with the continuous decline of the first grade, the proportion of self-use continues to increase, after all, both horizontal and vertical are losses, it is better to lose to end users, accelerate the extension of the industrial chain. In the short term, Shandong monomer factory 107 glue for the main force, this week is both the end of the month and the end of the year, the rhythm of large stock must be controlled, local or negotiated profits.
Silicone glue demand side: At this stage, it is greatly affected by seasonality, rain and snow in many places are not conducive to transportation, and the construction of outdoor in the north has basically stopped. Therefore, it is difficult to rely on rigid demand to go to the warehouse in the short term, and it is more necessary to stimulate the expected demand of dealers for 2024 and drive the market's winter storage sentiment. In terms of photovoltaic glue: the installation of the big year is expected to remain unchanged, but the pattern of excess in the industrial chain is difficult to change, and the module is the best across the board, and the active production reduction has increased in the past two months, and the demand for photovoltaic glue has also weakened.
On the whole, upstream and downstream enterprises aim to stimulate the expected demand in 2024, but the entire industrial chain** has basically touched the cost line, and the room for price reduction is limited. It is expected that the 107 rubber market will run weakly and steadily in the near future, and local negotiations will be conducted.
Silicone oil market: Last week, the domestic silicone oil market continued to be stable, and there was no major adjustment on it, as of December 24: the mainstream of domestic silicone oil **15,500 16,500 yuan tons. On the raw material side, DMC** fell first and then stabilized last week, and some monomer factories rose slightly in the middle of the week, while another raw material silicon ether** continued to be high, but most silicone oil companies still have low-price silica ether support, so the cost is still controllable. Subsequently, as the timeline is lengthened, the silicone oil** may be pulled up by the silicon ether. In addition, due to the low enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to take goods, silicone oil companies are more general in receiving orders.
In terms of foreign brand silicone oil, the current demand is weakening, and the foreign brand silicone oil supplier has also been lowered, as of December 24: foreign brand silicone oil **20,000-21,500 yuan ton. Subsequently, at the end of the month, Zhangjiagang is expected to resume production, and it is expected that foreign brand silicone oil will decline steadily.
On the demand side, the impact of weak terminal consumption still restricts the downstream market, coupled with the downward impact of DMC** in the early stage, downstream enterprises generally lack confidence in the market outlook, and it is naturally difficult to follow up with the purchase volume. And after entering the winter, the temperature across the country continues to fall, coupled with the frequent cold waves, rain and snow in the northern region, and the difficulty of outdoor construction, the demand for silicone adhesive is also shrinking, and the negative feedback of orders continues.
In short, at the end of the year, the domestic silicone oil market is mostly constrained by demand, and the cost of silicon-end silicon ether is still at a high level.
Pyrolytic material, waste silica gel is large and stable
Pyrolytic material market: new material low consolidation, although there is a local **, but ** still occupies a large advantage, pyrolytic material enterprises are still limited in orders, last week pyrolytic material DMC ** continued 12300 12800 yuan ton (excluding tax). Specifically, at the end of the year, pyrolysis material enterprises did not receive orders, and there were no bright spots in the orders, basically bearish on the market outlook, coupled with the high cost, domestic pyrolysis material enterprises continued to reduce production in order to avoid risks, and mainly collected payments. Recently, we contacted the pyrolysis plant in Southeast Asia, and their pyrolytic silicone oil was shipped at about 13,800 yuan, which has a large price difference advantage with the new material, and at the same time can also have some profit margins.
In terms of domestic waste silica gel, silicon products factories have always been less recognized by low-price burrs, waste silica gel ** merchants received scattered goods, and the transaction was basically cooled, last week's waste silica gel burrs ** 4500 4600 yuan tons (excluding tax), which is expected to continue to be weak and stable in the short term, lying flat to receive orders.
Raw rubber is stable, and rubber compounds are actively collected
Raw rubber market: Last week, the raw rubber market continued to diverge, the leading raw rubber remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan tons, and the mainstream of other enterprises was stable at 14,800 to 15,200 yuan tons. Although the delivery period is long, but for the rubber compound enterprises with thin profits, the most preferred procurement is still the leading factory. Other raw rubber companies are still performing calmly, even if DMC follows the fall, the raw rubber is only slightly loosened, and the main focus is a first-class spot.
In the short term, the raw rubber orders of the leading factories in November are still in the queue for delivery, and some of the dedicated rubber compounding plants are still facing the impact of shutdown, but after two months of long waiting, some rubber compounding plants are still turning to high and low matching, of which Yunnan raw rubber plants are relatively low, and the recent orders are acceptable, while other raw rubber factories are mostly for their own use, and the orders are general. It is expected that raw rubber is expected to maintain stable operation this week.
Rubber compound market: In the last week of 2023, rubber compound manufacturers no longer seem to pay too much attention to the trend, now approaching the end of the year, more collection, control delivery is the key, the current conventional hardness rubber compound **13500 14500 yuan tons, the mainstream is stable, a small number of manufacturers sporadic adjustments, the trading atmosphere is general, the raw material raw rubber ** is fast and slow, the recent cold wave has swept away, and some arrivals have been affected to a certain extent, but it has given the market some "boost momentum"!Under the worry, the "stocking wave" may start in 2024, on the whole, the current market is indeed actively promoting the 2024 ** good expectations.
In terms of silicon products, domestic conventional orders are relatively stable, and there is no significant change in market demand. On the whole, the current external environment game continues to escalate, the overall negative conditions are still more, and the fundamentals are still likely to change, so we need to continue to pay attention to the trend!
Marketplace**
To sum up, the highlight of the last week of 2023 is in the leading factory, if 14,500 yuan tons is stable until 2024, then the DMC of other monomer factories will return to 14,000+ and it will be basically determined. At present, on the one hand, high costs will limit the decline, once it falls below 14,000, it will basically bottom, while the demand side will limit the first space, and more than 14,500 will be cautious. At the end of the week, ** or the low level rises, the high level falls, and the DMC returns to the same level.
In the future, with the rapid decline of the organic silicon industry chain in 2023 and the negative profit operation occupies most of the time, everyone is paying attention to when the upstream production capacity will be cleared, but compared with the comprehensive strength of each monomer factory, it can withstand the wind and snow in the cold winter, and will actively accelerate the layout of the downstream industrial chain, so the fairy fight of the monomer factory will accelerate the reshuffle process in the middle and lower reaches.
It is expected that next year will be a stage where the industry will begin to clear. As analyzed by Mr. Stellar Gao at the General Assembly of Silicone** Membership: 2024 will be a "life and death situation"!Not only are individual factories actively seeking ways to help themselves, but small and medium-sized enterprises should also consider how to choose upstream to cooperate and share risks. Only by surviving this round of downward cycle can we usher in a new round of development space, and there are huge variables in 2024 and the future, full of opportunities and challenges!The road may be tortuous, but in the past, the future of silicones is bound to be bright. (The above analysis is for reference only, for communication purposes, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy and sell the commodities involved).
On December 25, the mainstream transaction of the silicone market**:
Silicone DMC
New material: 13900-14500 yuan ton (net water including tax).
Pyrolysis material: 12300-12800 yuan ton (excluding tax).
Silicone D414600-15500 yuan ton (water purification tax included).
107 silicone rubber (conventional viscosity):
New material: 14,600-15,000 yuan tons (water purification tax included).
Dimethicone (conventional viscosity):
Domestic: 15,500-16,500 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
Import: 21,000-22,000 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
Pyrolysis material: 13500-14300 yuan ton (excluding tax).
Raw rubber (molecular weight 450,000-600,000):
14500-15200 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
Precipitated rubber compound (conventional hardness):
13,500-14,500 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
Waste silicone (waste silicone burr):
4500-4600 yuan ton (excluding tax).
Domestic fumed silica (200 specific surface area):
Medium and low end: 18,000-26,000 yuan ton (including tax and packaging).
High-end: 28,000-35,000 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
Precipitated silica for silicone rubber:
6600-7200 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
The transaction price is high or low, you need to confirm with the manufacturer's inquiry, the above ** is for reference only, not to make any transaction basis).
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