As we all knowU.S. TreasuriesIt has always been regarded as the hardest hard currency other than the US dollar, and in recent years it has been discovered that compared to its earningsU.S. TreasuriesThe risk is growing. In the past,U.S. TreasuriesIt is bought by the world and is even seen as an anchor for global asset pricing. However, in recent years, most countries around the globe have been sellingU.S. Treasuries, including China. China has continued to do so over the past few yearsU.S. Treasuries, by September 2021, ChinaU.S. TreasuriesThe size of the position has been reduced to $778.1 billion. And not only China,Global central banksOne after another, including Japan, the United Kingdom, India, etcSaudi Arabiaand other countries are making a big moveU.S. Treasuries。It can be said that it was considered a safe-haven asset in the pastU.S. TreasuriesIt's dangerous.
However, AmericanEconomyFunctioning is actually dependent on the worldInvestmentsIt also means that the United States needs someone to take overU.S. Treasuries。In the past,Global central banksThis role was assumed, but now the situation is different. Global central banksCuts are being madeU.S. TreasuriesOnly the United States itself bears this heavy burden. According to relevant data reports, the Fed has lost nearly $860 billion in recent years. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, in order to sprinkle a large number of coins to stimulateEconomy, the Fed had to take a large amountU.S. Treasuries, which leads to the followingU.S. interest rate hikes, the Fed incurred huge losses. And unlike in the past, now take overU.S. TreasuriesThe main thing is the American people themselves. Due toU.S. TreasuriesYields have increased to nearly 4%, which is relatively the highest level in recent years, so more people are choosing to buy more stable Treasury bondsInvestments。According to the data of relevant institutions, it is now taking overU.S. TreasuriesNearly 70 percent of the buyers are Americans, including even a large number of ordinary people. That is, to maintain the United States todayEconomyIt's the Americans themselves.
However, the United States is currently facingU.S. TreasuriesThe scale is up to 337 trillion dollars, and the fiscal revenue is obviously not able to repay this huge amountDebt。The only thing the US can do is to get out of it through inflationDebt, which also means taking overU.S. Treasurieswill pay a huge price for it. Previously, the United States had hoped to fill its own fiscal holes by harvesting global assets through the dollar tide, but this time the tide did not live up to expectations. Even if the rate hike reaches its peak, it is the United States itself that will bear the brunt of the blow, which is why the Fed has suffered massive losses, the level of industry and consumption in the United States has fallen sharply, and international rating agencies have reduced American credit. It can be said that now the United States has movedU.S. TreasuriesIt's a big rock that might end up hitting you.
U.S. TreasuriesA recession is bound to be globalEconomyMake a big impact. In the past, the United States has been a system of global support, but now it is time to pay off its debts. The United States currently claims to have a GDP of $26 trillion, which is mainly driven by consumption, in other words, the United States is spending the world's money, thereby driving its own countryEconomic growth。Today, however, the United States is struggling to borrow money and needs to start paying its debts. In the past, the United States borrowed money from all over the world, and then directly found the money to the American people, but now the global money** has dried up, and to make matters worse, countries around the world are not only unwilling to lend money to the United States, but are also withdrawing back the money that was previously lent to the United States. This requires the United States to either improveInterest, attractInvestmentsor sell the assets to repayDebt。Therefore, the United States is currently passing through the raiseInterestto attractInvestmentsBut theseInvestmentsIt's not the central banks, it's the American people. In other words, bear nowU.S. TreasuriesThe last line of defense is the American people themselves.
However, at the current scale of 337 trillion dollarsU.S. TreasuriesCan the American people carry such a big burden?No one knows the answer. AmericanInterestSpending has reached nearly a trillion dollars, and the actual assets harvested are not much, except in Europe, which has been affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It can be said that the American reapering scythe has been blunted. If the harvest fails, the United States lowersInterestPerhaps it will be the beginning of the collapse of the dollar, and the American people will be the ultimate victims.
Judging by the article, the author believes that AmericanU.S. TreasuriesHegemony is rapidly declining, and taking overU.S. TreasuriesIt is still possible that the United States itself. The United States relies on distributionU.S. Treasuriesto sustain themselvesEconomyRun, butGlobal central banksOn a large scale**U.S. TreasuriesOnly the American people themselves take responsibility for taking over. However, responsible for carrying a huge sumDebtWhether the number of American people is large enough is unknown. The current financial situation of the United States cannot repay such a huge amountU.S. Treasuries, which can only be washed out by inflationDebt, which will make the pick-upU.S. Treasuriesof people pay a huge price. If the U.S. harvest plan fails, it could eventually lead to the collapse of the dollar, and the American people will be the victims.
In the author's opinionU.S. Treasuriesrecession on the globeEconomywill have far-reaching consequences. As one of the world's major reserve currencies, a recession of the US dollar will involve the whole worldEconomyof all aspects. U.S. TreasuriesA recession could lead to the United StatesEconomyof the decline on the globeEconomic growthCausing a negative impact. At the same time,Global central banksThey're all **U.S. Treasuries, which could be triggered globallyDebtcrisis, which leads to turmoil in financial markets. Moreover, the United States itself is saddled with huge sumsDebt, inflationary pressures may be further exacerbatedEconomyInstability.
For China,**U.S. TreasuriesProbably a rational oneInvestmentsDecision-making. China-ownedU.S. TreasuriesLarge-scale,** can reduce risk exposure and diversifyInvestment Risk。In addition, China can also pass **U.S. Treasuriesto increase their own asset allocation ratio and increase the proportion of other assetsInvestments, such as **, bonds, **, etc. Of course, **U.S. TreasuriesIt is also necessary to operate cautiously and avoid dealing with the United StatesEconomyand the capital market has had a big impact.
In general,U.S. TreasuriesRecession has become a problem that cannot be ignored globallyEconomyMake a big impact. States need to be vigilant and take appropriate measures to prevent and mitigate potential risks. At the same time, it is also necessary to strengthen international cooperation to jointly address challenges and advance the worldEconomyofSustainability