China-Singapore Jingwei, December 24 (Ma Jing) "I think that China's ** is not without investment value, but ** there is a serious mismatch between the trading volume and market value of the constituent stocks. On the 24th, Nie Qingping, former chairman of China's leading financial company, pointed out at the 2023 annual meeting (10th) sub-forum of the China Wealth Management 50 Forum that the CSI 300 accounts for about 70% of the overall market capitalization, but the valuation level is relatively low, and the proportion of transactions is only about 27%, and it is declining year by year. The valuation of China's blue-chip stocks should be doubled, and as long as it reaches 17-18 times, the stock index is very worthwhile.
Nie Qingping also said that A-shares are at the bottom of the cycle, and macro policies and valuation levels have favorable conditions for steady upward movement. Zhongxin Jingwei noted that at this sub-forum, the helmsmen of China Post Wealth Management, Huatai Assets, Shenwan Lingxin and other institutions said that they should be optimistic about next year and that there are investment opportunities.
should have confidence in **".
Talking about the judgment of next year's economic situation, Nie Qingping believes that since 2008, China has been in a cycle of deleveraging, China's economy has been at the bottom of the cycle in reducing systemic financial risks, and the next step should be to gradually improve.
Yang Ping, chief investment officer of Huatai Insurance Group and general manager of Huatai Assets, also judged that the global economy is in the stage of bottoming out and stabilizing, and China's economy will be in a moderate recovery. He also emphasized that China's economy was more leveraged and debt-oriented in the past, and the promotion effect and effect of scientific and technological innovation on China's economy will continue to improve in the future.
We are optimistic about the growth of manufacturing investment brought about by China's new economic growth drivers next year. Chen Xiaosheng, chairman of Shen Wan Lingxin, said that according to Shen Wan Lingxin's research, there are three main points to promote economic growth next year: one is China's fiscal policy to improve efficiency, the second is the exhaustion of excess savings in the US market and the fiscal suppression, and the third is the accelerated development of China's digital **.
In this macro context, how will China perform next year?
At present, the equity market has good valuation and fundamental support, but the market sentiment is relatively poor, we are still optimistic about the equity market in the medium and long term, but there may be some volatility in the short term. Tang Hujun, chief quantitative investment officer of Ping An Wealth Management, mentioned that the decline in the profit growth rate of listed companies since the beginning of this year has converged year by year, and there may be some slow but steady improvement next year. In terms of capital, although the northbound capital continues to flow out this year, it is expected that the situation will improve next year, and with the gradual entry of institutional investors into the market, and the further convergence of the financing scale and the scale of shareholders, the capital will be restored next year.
Yuan Zhihong, chairman of Huaxia Wealth Management, also judged that the profitability of listed companies has reached an inflection point, and they should have positive confidence. From the perspective of style, growth, dividends, and ** are catalyzed by fundamentals and policies, and the possibility of future value repair will be higher.
How should I invest in A shares?
In terms of the investment strategy of A-shares, Nie Qingping believes that asset allocation should be based on medium and long-term high-performance stocks, and attention should be paid to value investment and long-term investment opportunities in the capital market.
Tang Hujun believes that there are structural opportunities in the equity market next year, including some cost-effective consumption, pension consumption, dividend assets, scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development, etc.
Heavy positions that have not performed well this year** may not necessarily perform poorly next year, and there may be great opportunities. In Yang Ping's view, the current valuation of A-shares is already at a relatively low quantile, and institutional investors usually pay attention to institutional heavy stocks. At present, the index has returned to the level of 2020, and it will gradually show its chance by next year.
From the perspective of the industry, Yang Ping said that he is optimistic about three major sectors: first, technology stocks that reflect the characteristics of the times, but this needs to be selected. The second is pharmaceutical, which is currently valued at a relatively cheap price, and under the trend of high-quality development, pharmaceuticals may win opportunities with good profitability and valuation. Third, in terms of resources, under the condition that the global macro economy is still good, the leading opportunities in the field of resources are also relatively obvious.
However, Yang Ping also reminded that the volatility of the equity market is extremely low this year, and the volatility of the equity market will rise next year. Secondly, in terms of portfolio structure, it is necessary to achieve both defense and offense, follow the policy, and do a good job in predicting and timely switching of high dividends, technological growth and pro-cyclical sectors.
It can "continue to tap the space for urban investment bonds".
In addition, many people have pointed out that in the loose liquidity environment, the upward space of interest rates is limited, the downward trend of bond yields will continue, and there are still opportunities in the bond market, especially urban investment bonds and industrial bonds.
Peng Kun, general manager of China Post Wealth Management, mentioned that at present, the trend of bond yield cycle fluctuations and downward trend has not changed, and it can still maintain a neutral and high allocation level next year. We can appropriately seize the trading opportunities, continue to tap the space for urban investment bonds, adjust the structure of real estate bonds, and do a good job in the allocation opportunities of "two permanent bonds".
Yuan Zhihong also held a similar judgment, and said that it is still important to grasp the changes in the market rhythm and maintain a necessary high **.
Tang Hujun added that although the coupon income of credit investment has generally declined, the scarcity of high-grade credit bonds is rising, and short-duration and high-yield urban investment bonds are safer.
Yang Ping mentioned that bonds should be actively traded, pay close attention to changes in funds and policies, and attach importance to the strategy of high coupons. In addition, he believes that there are also great opportunities for many convertible bonds, which are close to the value of pure bonds, which can be said to be a good opportunity.
In addition to stocks and bonds, what other assets can be allocated next year?Peng Kun believes that at this stage, it is still the key to maintain the stability of the product with low volatility, and it is necessary to continue to allocate certificates of deposit and deposit assets in combination with the changes in the capital side. At the same time, we will strengthen asset allocation management and build a relatively stable asset portfolio to stabilize product fluctuations. In addition, some subdivided assets, such as ABS and REITs for revitalizing stock assets, will have new opportunities, in addition to consumer assets, U.S. bonds, etc.
In Yuan Zhihong's view, commodities, base metals, etc., should also have great opportunities next year.
Tang Hujun mentioned the investment value of ** and said that he is optimistic about quantitative private placement in terms of alternative strategies.