The "retirement tide" of power batteries has begun, and it is showing rapid growth!
Data show that although the number of new energy vehicles in China has increased from 580,000 in 2015 to more than 16 million now;
However, the amount of batteries to be retired each year is also huge.
According to data from China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the total number of power batteries retired in China in 2020 will be about 200,000 tons, and by 2025, this number will rise to about 780,000 tons.
With the extension and development of the industry, the problem of automotive power batteries behind it has attracted much attention.
According to industry estimates, the first batch of new energy vehicles on the market, its power battery has been in the "retirement" period.
Wave of battery retirement
According to the data on the "Development of China's Waste Lithium-ion Battery Dismantling and Cascade Utilization Industry in 2023", in 2022 alone, the actual amount of waste lithium-ion batteries in China will be 4150,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 758%。
On the other hand, the high cost of replacing batteries is the reason why many people are hesitant to buy new energy vehicles.
Previously, CCTV 315 reported that in 2016, Mr. Gao, the owner of the car in Shangqiu, Henan, bought an electric car 650,000 yuan, but because of the heavy rain soaked in water, the battery was scrapped, and the 4S store told that it would take 69,000 yuan to replace the battery.
In other words, changing the battery is more expensive than the car itself.
It's no wonder that most car owners, faced with the high cost of battery replacement, have to give up. Instead of spending this **, it is better to buy a new car more cost-effective.
This has also led to a general low level of second-hand electric vehicles, and the trading market has shrunk significantly.
As we all know, after the production of power batteries, the battery capacity will continue to decay with the increase of charging times.
When the capacity of these batteries drops to only 80%, they will be retired from the front line of the automotive industry, but retiring does not mean that the life span is over.
They are then screened and tested to determine how much "power they have left".
If there is 20%-80% of the residual capacity, it will be used in some fields with relatively low battery capacity requirements such as communication base station backup batteries and energy storage, where they can exert their waste heat.
If it is below 20%, I am sorry and can only go through the scrapping process. After a series of dismantling, the metal inside is extracted for resource recycling.
To put it simply, it is to maximize the energy of the battery, exhaust the last residual value, and wait until there is no squeezing to squeeze it.
It is worth mentioning that most of the new energy vehicles on the market currently use ternary lithium batteries. Such batteries are favored for their high energy density, light weight, and high discharge efficiency.
It is reported that the general cycle life of this battery is 1200 times.
A full cycle is when the battery goes from full charge to full discharge, i.e. the battery can repeat this process about 1200 times from full charge (100%) to full discharge (0%).
However, in practical use, people rarely let the battery fully discharge and recharge.
In most cases, the battery is charged when there is still a certain percentage of charge remaining, which means that a full cycle may span several charges.
For example, if the battery is only 50% charged and then fully charged, this is only counted as half a cycle, so it is generally counted as a cycle after 2-3 charges.
So how long can a battery last if it is based on this condition?
For example, if a pure electric car can run 15,000 kilometers a year, and then the actual range is 350 kilometers, then it can run about 50 kilometers a day and be charged once in about 4-5 days.
So, theoretically speaking, it is not a problem for the battery to last for more than ten or twenty years.
Of course, the actual service life will be affected by various factors such as charging habits, temperature, charging speed, etc.
Because of this, the current general battery warranty period is 5 years 100,000 kilometers, 8 years and 150,000 kilometers, and even some brands have a commitment to 8 years of unlimited kilometers.
That is, once there is a problem with the battery and electric drive system within 8 years, it can be free after-sales.
Coupled with the continuous update of battery technology, for example, BYD released blade battery technology at the beginning of 2020, which not only achieved a significant increase in energy density, but also allowed the number of cycle charging and discharging to reach 3,000 times.
Therefore, there is basically no need to worry too much about the attenuation of power batteries, which is enough to meet the needs of most users.
How to fix it
Although the "retirement tide" of power batteries is showing rapid growth, it is not a bad thing, but will bring greater progress and more development opportunities.
2014 is the node of the development of China's new energy vehicles, and the Chinese market has therefore entered the first wave of large-scale scrapping of new energy vehicle power batteries.
According to CCTV Financial News, by the end of 2022, a total of 510,000 new energy vehicles have been scrapped, and 24 power batteries have been scrapped10,000 tons.
According to a survey report by the Development Research Center, as of 2023, the standardization rate of power batteries for new energy vehicles in China will be less than 25%.
Relevant data show that in 2022, the actual disposal of waste lithium-ion batteries in China will only be 4150,000 tons, far less than the current industry capacity.
It is estimated that by 2030, the domestic lithium-ion battery volume will reach 60280,000 tons, and its market size will exceed 100 billion yuan.
Therefore, the potential of the battery is still very large.
Because China's power battery has not yet established a mature system, although the power battery ** related enterprises up to 3850,000, but only 88 companies have entered the white list of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and most of the others are small workshops.
In the process of dismantling the small workshop, if there is improper operation, there will not only be environmental pollution, but also the safety of life and property.
Therefore, the establishment of a sound high-quality retired lithium battery system can ensure the sustainable development of the new energy industry, so as to create the last closed loop of the lithium battery circular economy industry chain.
On the good side, the state is also constantly introducing corresponding policies to carry out more perfect management and governance of batteries to ensure that scrapped batteries are finally properly disposed of.
For example, each battery manufactured or imported in China for electric vehicles is accompanied by a unique ** for tracking and proper disposal at the end of the battery's life.
In this way, you can understand the "birth, aging, sickness and death" of a battery very clearly.
Ending
Looking at the world today, China is undoubtedly in a leading position in the field of new energy vehicles.
In terms of raw materials, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc., are the key raw materials for the production of batteries, and most of the ** and processing are in China, or controlled by Chinese companies.
And then the most critical battery in electric vehicles, China can also rely on its huge scale and mature technology to reduce the cost.
If coupled with the continuous breakthrough of battery technology, it will undoubtedly form a perfect closed loop.
Other countries say that they have caught up, but it is difficult to step into it.