Author丨Li Tongxin, Zheng Jiaqi.
Editor丨Wu Guixing.
Approaching New Year's Day, the last big schedule of the film industry this year, the Chinese New Year file, is about to end. According to Maoyan Professional Edition, as of 10 o'clock on December 29, the total box office (including pre-sale) of the 2023 Chinese New Year stalls (November 24 to December 31) has exceeded 3.6 billion yuan. "Wading Through the Sea of Wrath", "The Three Teams" and "Twinkle and Twinkle Star" are among the top three box office lists for the Chinese New Year.
What are the characteristics of this year's Chinese New Year stalls?Who will be the winner and the dark horse?Which listed companies are involved behind it?21 Data Journalism Lab takes you to see the latest situation in one article.
86 films gathered for the New Year
The industry usually divides the range of Chinese New Year stalls from the last week of November to the end of December each year. It's a relatively easy time to get results. In the past 10 years, there have been 8 years when the total box office of the Chinese New Year stalls exceeded 3 billion yuan.
According to Maoyan Professional Edition, this year's Chinese New Year period is from November 24 to December 31, a total of 38 days. As of 10 o'clock on December 29, the box office of the 2023 Chinese New Year stalls has exceeded 3.6 billion yuan, far exceeding the total box office of the same period last year by 164.2 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that this year can be said to be the most competitive Chinese New Year stall in the past 10 years. According to the data of Maoyan Professional Edition, 86 films (including re-releases) have been locked in this schedule, and the number of releases has reached a new high in recent years.
Up to now, the total box office of the film has exceeded 54 billion yuan. Rao Shuguang, president of the China Film Critics Society, judged that with the successive release of Chinese New Year films, the total box office of the Chinese film market in 2023 is expected to hit 55 billion yuan.
Who will be the winner and dark horse of the year?
In the history of the Chinese New Year stalls, there have been many annual box office champions. In 2010, 2011, and 2012, the box office champions of domestic films were all released in the Chinese New Year file, namely "Let the Bullets Fly", "The Thirteen Hairpins of Jinling" and "The Embarrassment of Thailand".
However, since the establishment of the Spring Festival stalls in 2013, the Lunar New Year stalls have never given birth to annual box office champions, and the schedules that produce the most box office champions have become Spring Festival stalls and National Day stalls. However, among the box office champions of the Chinese New Year stalls since 2013, there are still three 1 billion-level blockbusters "Looking for the Dragon", "Fanghua" and "Aquaman".
According to Maoyan Professional Edition, as of December 29, "Wading Through the Angry Sea", "Three Teams" and "Twinkle and Twinkle Star" are among the top three in the box office list of the 2023 Chinese New Year, accounting for % of the box office.
On the whole, there is no shortage of films and explosive models in this year's Chinese New Year file. "Wading Through the Sea of Wrath", which temporarily topped the box office list of the Lunar New Year stalls, had a cumulative box office of only 5 in 34 days of release4.8 billion, Maoyan ** The total box office of the film is about 54.9 billion. "Up to now, there has indeed not been a large-scale film in this year's Lunar New Year file to pry the market's enthusiasm for watching movies. Zhang Tong, a senior analyst at Maoyan Research Institute, said.
"Twinkle Twinkle Twinkle Star", adapted from the web drama of the same name, has become a dark horse for this year's Chinese New Year. This fantasy romance film directed by a newcomer and starring in a non-traffic star exceeded 100 million yuan at the pre-sale box office 23 days before the screening, becoming the earliest pre-sale film to break 100 million yuan before the screening and the fastest movie to break 100 million yuan in the pre-sale of the Chinese New Year.
Up to now, the pre-sale box office of the film has exceeded 300 million yuan, and the number of people who want to watch it has exceeded 1.96 million. Judging from the user portrait, the film successfully leveraged the young female audience in the sinking market. On December 30, the day of the release of "Twinkle Twinkle Twinkle Star", 1,314 cinemas across the country will hold a "snow field" event at 13:14 to link the previous online drama plot - which is regarded by industry insiders as an important reason for the film's pre-sale box office.
Institutions are optimistic about the future performance of film stocks
Approaching the New Year's Eve, the competition for new films is becoming more and more fierce. From December 29th to December 31st, a total of 12 new films have been scheduled, in addition to the above-mentioned "Twinkle Twinkle Twinkle Star", it also includes the comedy "Annual Meeting Can't Stop!" starring Dapeng and Bai Ke", Andy Lau starring "Sneaking" and "Goldfinger", Feng Xiaogang's new work "If You Are Honest Do Not Disturb 3" and American singer Taylor Swift's concert spin-off film "Taylor Swift: Times Tour", etc., behind which many listed companies such as Chinese films, Huayi Brothers, and Hengdian Film and Television are involved.
Institutions are generally optimistic about the future performance of film stocks。Joaquin ** believes that the Chinese New Year movie has a rich lineup of themes, and it is expected that dark horse films will appear to drive market growth. Multi-channel publicity and distribution such as on-demand screenings, as well as rich film source categories and content, effectively promote the recovery of the film and television industry.
Dongguan** believes that driven by the supply of high-quality works and schedule dividends, the film market is expected to continue to recover. In terms of investment direction, it is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in the film market, focusing on cinema companies with greater performance elasticity under the rebound of the box office and head content production companies with rich project reserves.
Debang** said that on the whole, the competition between the New Year's Eve stalls and the New Year's Eve stalls is fierce. The continuous improvement of domestic word-of-mouth is expected to continue to drive the demand of domestic audiences for movie-watching, forming a positive cycle of content and audiences. It is recommended to pay attention to: Wanda Film, Guangguang Media, Hengdian Film and Television, Baina Qiancheng, China Film, Happy Blue Ocean, Huayi Brothers, Maoyan Entertainment, Ali Pictures.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk. ）
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Editor: Jiang Peipei, intern: Tan Yahan.
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