China Net Finance, December 21 (Reporter Chang Shuaishuai) Winter is coming, the New Year is approaching, what is the trend of China's economic operation?What is the state of profit recovery of industrial enterprises?How to ensure that the cold wave and low temperature masses are warm in winter?How will the increase in food ** change next year?What will be the focus of macroeconomic policy next year?Authoritative interpretation of the National Development and Reform Commission.
What is the trend of China's economic operation?
We have the conditions and the ability to successfully complete the annual economic target.
Li Chao, deputy director and spokesman of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that since the beginning of this year, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have risen, and some new difficulties and challenges have emerged in economic operation. With the joint efforts of all parties, China's economy has withstood external pressures, overcome internal difficulties, continued to recover, made solid progress in high-quality development, and achieved hard-won development achievements, which are worth cherishing.
Specifically, in November, the economic operation continued to pick up and improve. Li Chao introduced that in November, production, consumption and foreign trade import and export maintained rapid growth. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6 percent year-on-year6%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10 percent year-on-year1%, 2 percent faster than the previous month5 percentage points. The growth momentum of automobile consumption and service consumption is good, which is a prominent bright spot in the process of consumption recovery. In November, the import and export of foreign trade denominated in RMB increased by 12%, 03 percentage points.
In terms of investment and expectations. Efforts to stabilize investment have been increased. As of the end of November, the issuance of local ** special bonds has been basically completed;All localities promote projects to private capital through a unified national platform, attracting private capital to participate in 1,490 projects, with a total investment scale of 19 trillion yuan. Production and business activities are expected to improve. Although the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index have fallen, the business expectation index remains high, and the production and business activity expectation index in the manufacturing PMI rebounded for two consecutive months in November, and the business activity expectation index in the non-manufacturing PMI hit a new high in nearly five months.
Li Chao stressed that on the whole, with the continuous recovery of economic momentum, the successive introduction of various policies, and the gradual emergence of policy effects, we have the conditions and ability to promote the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous momentum, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of risks and hidden dangers, so as to successfully complete the main expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year.
What is the state of profit recovery of industrial enterprises?
More than seventy percent of the industry's profits have improved, and the recovery of domestic demand has boosted the growth of corporate income.
Industry is an important pillar of the national economy, and stabilizing industrial growth and promoting the improvement of profits of industrial enterprises is an important foundation for promoting economic recovery. Since the beginning of this year, with the joint efforts of all parties, the efficiency of the enterprise has gradually recovered. Judging from the data in October, the profits of industrial enterprises have maintained positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive months, and more than seventy percent of the industry's profits have improved.
According to Li Chao's analysis, this is mainly due to two factors. From the demand side, it is mainly the recovery of domestic demand that drives the growth of corporate income. As the effect of macro policies continues to appear, the recovery of domestic demand and the increase in orders have driven the sales growth of industrial enterprises, and the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has remained above 97% for four consecutive months, driving the operating income of enterprises to rebound for four consecutive months. From the supply side, the main reason is that the unit cost of enterprises is decreasing. Various policies to help enterprises and benefit enterprises have been implemented in detail, effectively reducing the cost of some factors and tax costs. In addition, the continuous recovery of enterprise production and the enhancement of scale effect have reduced the unit cost of industrial enterprises and promoted the increase of corporate profit margins.
The growth of corporate profits means that there are more conditions to increase the income of workers and expand reproduction, which in turn provides support for expanding domestic demand, improving people's livelihood and well-being, and enhancing the momentum of development, which can form a good cycle.
Li Chao said that in the next step, we will fully implement the spirit of the first economic work conference, increase macroeconomic regulation and control, consolidate and enhance the economic recovery trend, focus on expanding domestic demand, lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, accelerate the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, and lay a solid foundation for the continuous improvement of the efficiency of industrial enterprises. At the same time, we will continue to strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the industrial situation, discover the emergent, tendencies and potential problems in the operation of the industrial economy in a timely manner, do a good job in pre-research and prediction and policy reserves, and effectively promote the high-quality development of the industrial economy.
How to ensure that the cold wave and low temperature masses are warm in winter?
The overall situation of energy supply in the country is good, and the resource reserves are guaranteed.
Recently, China has suffered the strongest cold wave since the beginning of winter this year, and there has been a wide range of heavy rain and snow in many places, which has a great impact on energy and power and warm supply. What is the current energy situation?Can we ensure the energy needs of the masses to stay warm in winter?
At present, the national demand for electricity and gas is at a historical high. On December 17, the highest electricity load in the country was 124.2 billion kilowatts, gas consumption 142.3 billion cubic meters, 83 million kilowatts and 10.8 billion cubic meters, a record high in the heating season.
Li Chao said that in order to do a good job in dealing with the strong cold wave weather, the National Development and Reform Commission and the member units of the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation guarantee work and relevant localities will study and prepare in advance before the cold wave, strengthen the overall planning and dispatch of resources during the cold wave, make every effort to increase the peak supply capacity of electricity and natural gas, and quickly coordinate and solve the problem of local regional imbalance.
Li Chao introduced that from the overall situation of energy supply in this year's heating season, with the joint efforts of various regions, relevant departments and enterprises, the overall situation of energy supply in the country has been good since the beginning of winter, and the work is stable and orderly, and the energy needs of the masses are better guaranteed. It is the best guarantee of energy production. Since the beginning of the heating season, the country's coal output has remained high;The average daily power generation is 255600 million kWh, an increase of 87%；Natural gas is sufficient, with an average daily volume of 12500 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 58%。
Resource reserves are guaranteed. It is reported that at present, the coal storage of the national unified power plant is maintained at more than 200 million tons and can be used for 26 days. The unplanned outage and output of coal-fired power plants across the country are at a low level in the same period in history. The natural gas storage capacity has increased significantly compared with last year, the available gas capacity of underground gas storage and LNG storage tanks is at a high level, and the inventory of refined oil products remains high.
In terms of people's livelihood energy, Li Chao mentioned that the National Development and Reform Commission has implemented people's livelihood and supply resources in advance, and signed medium and long-term contracts for coal and natural gas for power generation and heating. Urge all localities to earnestly assume the main responsibility for ensuring people's livelihood and energy use, and consolidate the direct responsibility of energy supply and heating enterprises. In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen overall coordination, consolidate the responsibilities of all parties, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring energy supply in the heating season this winter and next spring, and make every effort to ensure that the people are safe and warm in winter.
How will the increase change next year?
The base effect is gradually weakening, and the CPI is expected to rebound moderately next year.
The recent increase in food ** is obviously low, and the data shows that from January to November this year, food ** was basically the same as last year, and the increase was at a low level in the past ten years. Looking ahead to next year, what will be the CPI (Consumer Goods**) rally?
Li Chao analyzed that the reason for the low increase in CPI this year is mainly due to the superposition of imported, cyclical, seasonal and other factors. From the perspective of pork, in the second half of last year, the pig ** was at a high level of the cycle, and the production capacity increased significantly, and this year it was in the downward stage of the cycle, and the pig and pork markets were sufficient, and the pig and pork markets were running at a low level, and the first year in November was down 31 year-on-year8%；From the perspective of fresh vegetables, last winter, affected by the poor transportation and logistics, there were more fresh vegetables, resulting in a high base;From the perspective of food, affected by geopolitical conflicts, last year's international grain ** large**, directly led to the domestic wheat, corn, soybeans and other grains ** rose to varying degrees, this year's imported impact is significantly weakened, grain, edible oil ** is generally stable, the impact on food ** is much smaller than last year.
As the holiday approaches, the market demand increases seasonally, and the hogs and pork ** have rebounded slightly, and may continue to rebound in the later period. From the later point of view, China's agricultural product market is abundant, production and marketing are unimpeded, the market order is good, and food has the foundation for stable operation. Li Chao pointed out.
Looking forward to next year, Li Chao said that this year's CPI is running at a low level, with the change of import, cyclicality, seasonality and other factors, the base effect has gradually weakened, and the demand for goods and services continues to recover, and it is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately next year.
What will be the focus of macroeconomic policy next year?
Break through the stuck points that restrict the economic cycle, coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen the supply-side structural reform.
* The economic work conference put forward the "five musts" that reflect the laws of economic work in the new era, and clarified the overall requirements, policy orientations and key tasks for doing a good job in next year's economic work. How will the National Development and Reform Commission implement the spirit of the Economic Work Conference?What will be the focus of macroeconomic policy next year?
Li Chao said that the National Development and Reform Commission will combine its functions to fully implement the major arrangements made by the ** Economic Work Conference to promote the sustained recovery of China's economy.
First, adhere to the goal orientation and strive to achieve the main expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year. Focusing on the main expected goals of economic and social development next year, combined with the mid-term assessment of the 14th Five-Year Plan, we will closely track changes in economic operation, strengthen situation analysis and policy research, and increase macroeconomic regulation and control. At the same time, we should do a good job in policy pre-research and reserves, and prepare sufficient policy tools to deal with various risks and challenges.
The second is to highlight the problem orientation and strive to break through the stuck points that restrict the economic cycle. Coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen the supply-side structural reform, organically combine the two, lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, support the growth and expansion of new kinetic energy, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and consolidate the foundation for the development of the digital economyWe will further improve the efficiency and effectiveness of investment, promote the steady growth of consumption, enhance the endogenous power and reliability of the domestic cycle, and improve the quality and level of the international cycle. Coordinate the comprehensive revitalization of new urbanization and rural areas, comprehensively promote rural revitalization, put the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population in a more prominent position, and promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, unswervingly hold on to high-quality development, strengthen security capacity building in key areas, continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and resolutely adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risks.
The third is to strengthen comprehensive planning to ensure that the deployment is effective. Strengthen the overall coordination and cooperation of policies in various fields such as finance, currency, employment, industry, region, science and technology, and environmental protection, and strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. We will continue to deepen reform and opening up, continuously improve the implementation of the "two unswerving" systems and mechanisms, deepen the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, and promote the development and growth of the private economyWe will further attract and utilize foreign investment, continue to build a market-oriented, law-based and international first-class business environment, and support the implementation of the eight high-quality Belt and Road initiatives. Coordinate the implementation of major strategies such as regional and carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and implement annual key tasks. Strengthen the closed-loop implementation of the list, clarify the list of problems, responsibilities, tasks, etc., clarify the annual goals and implementation progress requirements, carry out "review" in a timely manner, and complete various tasks with high quality.