The big bearish raid on the game industry has changed the direction of the wind again

Mondo games Updated on 2024-01-30

1.At the index level, today is another seesaw, with the main board falling slightly and the Beijing Stock Exchange rising slightly. This shows that the market is still severely illiquid;As soon as the seesaw is still there, there is no way to talk about a bull market.

Don't add anything in this position, and don't try to find the main line of the market, because there is no main line at all, and the main funds are all-stirring sticks that run after a day.

If you stay in Qingshan, you will never be short of opportunities for U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, and even A-shares in the future.

2.Yesterday, a friend said that interest rates were cut, but in fact, this is what happened:

Generally speaking, when we say "interest rate cut" and "RRR cut", it refers to the adjustment of the benchmark interest rate and deposit reserve ratio at the central bank level, but this time, it is the commercial banks that voluntarily reduce the deposit interest rate.

What's the difference between the two?To put it simply, the actions of central banks directly create money, while commercial banks do not.

The background of this is that in the past year or two, in order to financially support the real economy, bank loan interest rates have been lowered, but deposit interest rates have not fallen much, so banks have made less money.

Now, I don't know if it has passed the stage of using funds to support the economy, anyway, it is time to consider the profits of these pro-sons of the bank.

In addition, even if it is true that the central bank cuts interest rates, a single factor will not directly push it up**. If Japan has had negative interest rates for many years, why would it finally ask American capital to make a special valuation of Japan?

Because of the abundance of liquidity and liquidity, it is actually a chicken-and-egg issue. What can really prompt funds to enter the market is to let the wait-and-see that there is money to be made.

As I said before, it was not the last time the deposit rate was cutThis time should not be the last. The bank's business situation will continue to improve.

However, the bank's plate is too big, and this level of benefit cannot attract enough funds to push it, and this vision still has to be long-term.

3.Today's game sector is suddenly bearish:

Due to the game concept stocks, more or less the Internet, media, AI and other concepts of the stocks, so today from the Hong Kong and U.S. stocks of the China Concept Internet to the A-share game media and AIGC, are all in the **.

The title says "unexpected" and "emotional", mainly because:

Since 2020, the rectification of the Internet industry has spread to the game field, with face authentication, anti-addiction system upgrades for minors, only two hours of play on weekends, and the game version number has been suspended for a while... The gaming industry has been hit hard.

However, from April 2022, under the situation at that time, first the edition number was restarted, and then in July, 27 departments said that they would promote the development of the media, game and animation industry and cultivate a number of internationally renowned brands.

The climax is that in November 22, People's Daily Online published a commentary, saying that "for a long time, the entertainment attributes of video games will always make people ignore the scientific and technological significance behind them, and it is impossible to lose the opportunity to dig deep into the value of the video game industry." ”

Coupled with the special mask-related time in November 22, and the trend of great loosening of restrictions in all walks of life after that.

No one would have expected that suddenly the policy from above would be to die hammer the game industry.

I don't understand that either. It can only be said that there should be controversy within the relevant departments, but at present, the party that strictly controls the game has led the issuance of documents.

may be aware that the conditions are too harsh, and insiders of the Game Working Committee have also said that everyone can speak freely about this opinion.

However, the goose factory replied that the new regulations had no impact, and it was obvious that it did not want to "speak freely".

Everyone must want to know the direction of the evolution of game industry policy in the future, and frankly, I was also blinded. Over the past few years, I have become more and more skeptical of my ability to study domestic policy

However, although the directions such as AIGC and chip semiconductors have been affected temporarily, most of them will still be repaired after the market is normal, so don't worry too much. After all, there is a national policy to support the development of artificial intelligence.

4.Following last week's CPI and PPI, the US core PCE price index released on Thursday slowed to the Fed's target of 20%, the lowest growth rate in three years.

It seems that the Fed's interest rate cut cycle is almost a foregone conclusion, but now the short-term pricing in the market is a bit inflated, and it is best to adjust it.

I think going long on U.S. stocks will be the most important part of a global investment strategy in the first half of next year.

5.Angola, a member of OPEC that had not cooperated with the OPEC, announced its withdrawal. In this, it is estimated that the US means are indispensable.

However, the intention of the United States should be to disintegrate strategic rivals in the long run, not necessarily to suppress oil prices in the coming months.

After the Fed's policy pivot and inflation decreases, a wave of upward movement in oil prices is still a high probability event.

6.The People's Bank of China (PBOC) recently released the 2023 China Financial Stability Report, proposing to promote the early implementation of the Financial Stability Law.

Don't be in a hurry to get excited, this is mainly aimed at local debt problems, RMB exchange rate fluctuations, real estate and other fields. The full text does not mention a word about the capital market.

Besides, the central bank itself is not the competent department of **, from the comment area of this news, it can be seen that most people are now "sick and rushed to the doctor".

The above views are personal and not investment advice;Please refer to it with caution and thanks for reading.

Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed in this article constitute investment advice to any person.

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