Real estate thunderstorm pulls the crotch!The three major bearishness in the early hours of this morning was fully fermented (122）
1. In the field of real estate, a lot of data is wrong, and the conclusions drawn are naturally wrong.
China's urbanization rate is 9.2 billion, but this includes small towns and county seats.
Specifically, more than 600 cities have a population of 4.7 billion in the main urban area and 100 million in the temporary population. More than 1,000 counties have a population of 13.8 billion and a temporary population of 29 million. The urban population is 1.9 billion and the rural population is 4.8 billion.
Rural areas, towns, and small counties are rich in land resources, and residents' housing is mainly self-built. Therefore, the demand for commercial housing is mainly concentrated in cities and large cities. If 80% of cities are self-built housing, 50% of counties are self-built housing, 90% of cities and towns are self-built housing, and 95% of rural areas are self-built housing, then the demand for commercial housing will increase. It has a population of 582.5 billion and an average living area of 40 square meters per capita. Then the total demand for commercial housing is 233 square meters.
Munger's perspective made a statistic. As of 2022, the sales volume of commercial housing in China has reached 21 billion square meters. Together with this year's 900 million square meters, the sales volume of commercial housing has reached 21.9 billion square meters. On the whole, the commercial housing over the years has basically met the residential needs of residents. From the demand side, after another two years of construction, the total demand for commercial housing will be basically satisfied.
After 2025, it can be said that there will be no housing shortage in any city in China except Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong.
Therefore, the end of the real estate economy is not an empty phrase. Once the real estate investment effect ends, ordinary commercial housing** will return significantly, and high-end commercial housing will become the mainstream.
From next year, the ordinary second-hand commercial housing built in the past 20 years** will be greatly adjusted. To what extent will it be adjusted?It will not exceed the monthly rent of your house multiplied by 350. The decline of ordinary second-hand commercial housing, ordinary luxury houses, and high-quality luxury houses has just begun. By 2024, most second-hand commercial houses, ordinary luxury houses, and high-end luxury houses will be halved or halved. Even the ankle was cut.
2. Blizzard has negotiated with NetEase, Tencent, etc., but the return time of the Chinese server has not yet been determined.
On November 30, Tencent's "Rubik's Cube Studio" was suspected of conducting a live broadcast related to World of Warcraft at Station B, and Tencent Games responded that the matter was only a live broadcast test and had ended. Recently, the reporter learned from people familiar with the matter that Blizzard has negotiated with a number of game manufacturers, including NetEase and Tencent, on the return of the national server, but the partner and the specific return time have not yet been determined.
3. The comparison of market value is more obvious and intuitive. Three years ago, Apple's market capitalization was $1,877.6 billion, slightly lower than the combined market capitalization of Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, and JD.com at $52.9 billion. Today, three years later, Apple's market capitalization is $2,747.4 billion. The market capitalization of all Internet companies in China is about half that of Apple, and there is a tendency to become one-third of Apple.
Therefore, around March 2021 seems to be a watershed moment. What's happening in the market?What caused the Chinese assets to be henceforth?Some people say that there is a problem with the system setting of the A** field, such as capital circulation financing, not considering the profit of **, and so on.
Is it all about the system?Apparently not, very simple. If you look at Chinese concept stocks, you will understand that most of these companies are listed overseas, and the poor performance is not directly related to A-shares.
What is the reason or logic?After thinking about it for a long time, I went back and flipped through them, and found these one after another. In March 2021, the U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue on Alaska kicked off China's formal challenge to the United States. Subsequently, the United States introduced the Foreign Corporate Responsibility Act. Chinese concept stocks responded**. Since then, the tension between China and the United States has intensified, causing funds to choose to stay away from China. On July 24, 2021, the General Office of the Communist Party of China issued the "Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Homework and Extracurricular Training for Students in the Compulsory Education Stage", commonly known as the double reduction policy. In my impression, as soon as the double reduction policy came out, Chinese concept stocks were in trouble, and the entire industry was almost in ruins.