In terms of the spatio-temporal coordinates of China's development, the Northeast region, as the eldest son of the "old industrial base", has a very special status and role. However, since the 20th century, the industrial transformation of Northeast China has faced difficulties, and the economic growth rate of Northeast China has continued to lag behind that of the whole country. According to the data of the seventh national census, the population of Northeast China has decreased by 11 million people in 10 years.
As the window of northern China, the Northeast region has been labeled as economically backward for many years, "the Northeast that can't go back, the wandering that can't stop", gray has become the main color tone of many film and television works depicting the Northeast.
The outside world has been singing about the decline of the Northeast for many years, and the investment in Shanhaiguan, the light industry relies on live broadcasting, and the heavy industry relies on barbecue is a label that the Northeast has been unable to get rid of for a long time. In reality, the long-term slow GDP growth, continuous population outflow, and serious aging problems in the three northeastern provinces continue to support this bias. So why did the firstborn of a nation decline to this point?Where does the future go?
With the success of the special economic zone in Shenzhen, policies and resources are supporting Guangdong, and later Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, the rapid economic development of the south has also led to more talent outflow, which further accelerated the decline of the economy in Northeast China. It is undeniable that the state's focus on supporting the economic development of the southern region also has its deep-seated considerations, such as the stable and huge consumption potential of the European and American markets, and more convenient and low-cost sea shipping. On the other hand, the instability of Northeast Asia, the ups and downs of relations with Japan and Russia, and the limited demand market in South Korea have largely inhibited the economic development of Northeast Asia. In contrast, the author does not believe that the political and business environment, regional and cultural factors are the main causes, but more like the by-products and sequelae brought about by the process of institutional reform and economic recession.
Multiple factors such as demand market, manufacturing and logistics costs, and geopolitics have determined the direction of the country's macroeconomic regulation and control policies for regional economic development, and also determined the widening economic gap between Northeast China and the South in the past few decades. The road ahead seems to be full of thorns and difficult to break through.
But entering 2023, the Northeast, which has been "declining" for a long time, suddenly handed over a surprising answer. In the first quarter of 2023, the comprehensive GDP growth rate of the three eastern provinces surpassed that of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, ranking first in the country。Among them, the GDP of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces increased year-on-year respectively. 7% is a rare quarterly data that outperforms the national average growth rate in recent years. In the first half of 2023, the three eastern provinces as a whole will remain higher than the national average, Jilin's GDP increased by 7 year-on-year7%, ranking fifth in the country, Liaoning Province and Heilongjiang have GDP growth rates of 56% and 47%。
Why is the economy of Northeast China picking up sharply at this time?After 20 years of waving the flag, the Northeast region has been working day and night, has it really seen a new dawn of development?
Just as "success is also bad, failure is also bad", geopolitical stability is an important factor in the economic development of coastal cities with important strategic positions. For example, Fujian Province faces Taiwan Province from the east across the Taiwan Strait, and the Taiwan issue has always been a sensitive issue, which has brought certain uncertainties to the economic development of coastal cities such as Fujian. In addition, coastal cities such as Fujian are adjacent to Southeast Asian countries, and there is also a political risk that overseas countries will exert pressure through factors such as regional security and cooperation. Under the background of the rise of protectionism due to the superposition of many geopolitical factors, the economic development of Fujian Province is facing many challenges. Similarly, Yunnan, Guangxi and other places, due to their proximity to Myanmar, the instability caused by geopolitics has also affected the exchange of border cities.
Geopolitics is always a double-edged sword for development。The fluctuation of national relations and geopolitics affects the economy of coastal and border cities like the wind, and also shackles the economic development of related cities. Although China has made great achievements since 2013, when it proposed to build the "New Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road". However, in order to maintain the influence of the Central Asian region, coupled with religious, cultural and other reasons, the Russian side is more inclined to establish in-depth economic cooperation with Europe first, mainly to vigorously promote the "European Economic Union", and then on the "Belt and Road" docking related matters, contradictions and doubts make it difficult for Sino-Russian cooperation to have substantial advancement and breakthroughs, and the Northeast, which is the longest border with Russia, has never been able to get a good and stable development opportunity.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States and Europe imposed economic sanctions on Russia, including but not limited to blowing up the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline, freezing Russian assets in Swiss banks, and suspending Russian companies from trading on the New York Stock Exchange. A series of sanctions were directly triggeredRelations between the United States and Russia and Russia and Europe have deteriorated rapidly, and Russia, which has suffered heavy economic losses, has had to adjust its development strategy and begin to implement strategies such as "looking east" and developing Arctic shipping lanes。In the eastern region, apart from China, there is almost no suitable size to meet Russia's needs, as Cui Shaochun, the consul general in Yekaterinburg, said, "Sino-Russian relations are at an all-time high." For the first time, the Northeast-Far East cooperation was included in the Sino-Russian Joint Statement. In the next 2-5 years, China will be the first choice of Russia, and business activities on the Sino-Russian border will become more and more frequent. Since then, the Northeast has become a pearl in the palm of its hand. In the geopolitical storm, opportunities for change and cooperation have emerged, allowing the Northeast to try to continue its own legend. The continuous integration of Chinese and Russian economies and cultures has promoted the rapid economic development of Northeast China and broken the curse of slow GDP growth for a long time.
If the economic recovery in the Northeast can play a role in promoting the growth of which economic sectors, the author believes that the first thing to bear the brunt of is consumption, investment in infrastructure, and the opening of ports and new shipping routes.
The first is the consumption aspectAt the end of September, the cross-border visa-free policy for Sino-Russian tourist groups was restarted, and the Sino-Russian border cities were once again crowded. The topic of Russians flocking into Heilongjiang to show off their northeast breakfast rushed to the hot search list of their respective ** platforms, and the Heihe morning market was crowded, and the vendors put up bilingual signboards to attract customers. The bustling scene of the international morning market has dispelled the gray impression that Tohoku has lacked vitality in the hearts of the public for many years. The visa-free operation between China and Russia has allowed the free flow of population between the two countries, increased the growth rate of consumption in Northeast China, and invisibly given more vitality to Northeast China.
In addition, with the blessing of heat, the 25th Harbin Ice and Snow World also ushered in more passenger flow. Superimposed on the inspection of Heilongjiang and put forward the spirit of actively expanding the transformation path from "ice and snow" to "gold and silver mountains", and continuously releasing the dividends of the ice and snow industry, this year's ice and snow world main tower "Ice and Snow Crown", its overall design is based on the concept of inheritance, innovation and development, reflecting the vision of Longjiang's take-off and revitalization of Longjiang. Up to now, as many as 200,000 tourists have poured into Harbin every day, and the number of tourists will soon exceed 10 million this year, and is expected to reach a new high. And a gratifying thing is that the heat of the ice and snow world remains high, and at the same time, this process has also brought huge reputation and praise to Harbin and even the Northeast.
The second is investment in infrastructureThe first cross-border bridge between China and Russia, the "Heilongjiang Bridge", was opened to traffic, becoming another major transportation hub after the Sino-Russian railway bridge. It has increased the volume of cargo transportation between China and Russia, and further promoted the investment increase in Sino-Russian border cities. At the same time, China and Russia are cooperating in the development of the Arctic shipping routes, forming a northern extension of the "Belt and Road", and are continuing to expand the influence of the Belt and Road in Central Asia.
In addition, in January this year, China and Russia signed a draft agreement on the "Siberia-2" pipeline, which will increase the import of Russian natural gas to China on the basis of "Siberia-1". As of November 23, Russia's natural gas to China has once again broken through the extreme, which not only meets the needs of Russia's interests, but also provides a stable energy guarantee for our country, which is a "win-win".
The third is Northeast-Far East cooperationAfter 163 years, Russia has opened the Vladivostok outlet to the sea and the Far East, and after 163 years, the long-constrained maritime ** ushered in a convenient reversal of reducing logistics costs and improving the efficiency of cargo circulation. Northeast China has taken this opportunity to further expand its coastal advantages, improve its participation in global technology and circulation, and its total import and export value has also increased sharply.
So far in 2022, Heilongjiang Province's total foreign trade has increased significantly against the trend, hitting a record high. In the first three quarters of 2023, the amount of the three eastern provinces to Russia increased sharply year-on-year, and Heilongjiang's exports to Russia increased by 83%;Liaoning's exports to Russia increased by 41%, and imports increased by 1025%；Jilin's ** amount to Russia increased by 76% year-on-year.
For Russia, this cooperation is an opportunity to get rid of Western pressure and promote economic developmentFor Northeast China, it is an opportunity to meet the demand for resources and energy and accelerate industrial development.
If the "Russia-Ukraine war" is the external driving force for the in-depth cooperation between China and Russia, then the continuous expansion of policy support for the revitalization of the Northeast region and the resources endowed by the Northeast region itself are the core internal driving force necessary to promote the revitalization of the Northeast
At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held on October 27, the "Opinions on Several Policies and Measures to Further Promote the Comprehensive Revitalization of Northeast China in the New Era and Achieve New Breakthroughs" were reviewed, and it was proposed that the Northeast region has better resource conditions, a relatively strong industrial base, unique regional advantages, and huge development potential, which has injected a shot in the arm for the revitalization of Northeast China.
As the former "industrial eldest son of the Republic", the Tohoku regionIt has a good industrial and manufacturing base。In the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, Northeast China became the only heavy industry base in the country with its rich mineral resources and drove the national economic development. The Daqing Oilfield in Heilongjiang is the world's second largest continental oilfield, with oil reserves of more than 10 billion tons and natural gas reserves of more than 1 trillion cubic metersLiaoning and Jilin provinces have abundant coal reserves, iron ore and rare earth resources. At the same time, the equipment manufacturing industry in Northeast China has a complete industrial chain and strong technical strength. Among them, Liaoning is the country's largest automobile and rail transit equipment production base, Jilin is the country's important heavy machinery and aerospace equipment production base, and Heilongjiang is the country's important agricultural machinery and petrochemical equipment production base. Vigorously develop the raw material industry and equipment manufacturing industry. According to 2022 data, the industrial added value of the Northeast region accounts for 74%, and the added value of the manufacturing industry accounts for 10 percent of the country5%。
Under the major opportunities such as geopolitical changes, the Northeast region is fully seizing the opportunity to give full play to its advantages in resources and manufacturing industry, promote the high-quality development of industrial and equipment manufacturing industries, and help industrial and manufacturing research to make substantial progress in industrialization, so as to continuously improve the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain.
In addition, the Northeast region is also an important national production base of commercial grainsBlessed with unique land resources。The black soil in Northeast China is mainly composed of humus, clay and sandy loam, with soil organic matter content of more than 10%, good soil structure, strong water and fertilizer retention ability, which is very suitable for the growth of grain crops. The fertile black soil soil and deep soil layer provide a large amount of cultivated land suitable for sowing, the latitude is suitable and belongs to the temperate monsoon climate zone, which also makes the summer water and heat conditions in Northeast China mild, which is extremely suitable for agricultural production, in addition, the distribution of rivers such as Songhua River and Nenjiang River also makes the development of agriculture in Northeast China can obtain convenient water source irrigation. Good reserves of natural resources and innovative production technology conditions have successfully empowered the once cold Great Northern Wilderness into an important granary in China. Ensuring food security has also become a special mission for Northeast China.
It is worth noting that the 14th Five-Year Plan proposes that by 2025, China's comprehensive grain production capacity will stabilize at 1More than 3 trillion catties, the rations are absolutely safe, and the grains are basically self-sufficient. China is a country with a large population, and food security is a top priority. As an important industrial and agricultural base in China, the revitalization and development of the Northeast region is even more importantAdhere to the combination of industrial and manufacturing development and "five safety".to maintain the strategic position of national defense security, food security, ecological security, energy security and industrial security.
Looking back on the past 20 years, the revitalization of Northeast China is not an impulse, but a continuous and profound accumulation. The "Russia-Ukraine war" has opened the door to a new stage for the revitalization of Northeast China, and on this basis, the development of Northeast China should not only make good use of resource advantages, continue to expand manufacturing advantages, but also improve efficiency, and grasp the problem of food security on the basis of effective protection of black soil. Although the effect of economic growth in the short term may not be obvious, it has boosted the overall confidence of the outside world in the NortheastThe business environment has been optimizedThe stereotype of "investment is not enough in Shanhaiguan" will no longer become a shackle to the development of Northeast China.
In fact, the business environment was indeed one of the problems that hindered the economic development of Northeast China in the past. However, bureaucratic spirit and unhealthy trends originate from economic backwardness, and in the case of new opportunities for economic development in Northeast China, vested interests can effectively help create a good business environment, and rapid economic development is the best way to overcome these stubborn diseases.
Recently, some institutions and enterprises that have in-depth cooperation with H&Q Consulting in Northeast China have said that the political and business environment in Northeast China has been significantly improved, and creating a good business environment seems to be just around the corner. The Northeast region is paying close attention to the "gold" of deepening reform, carefully crafting the business environment, and creating a hot land for investors. Such efforts not only make the process of research industrialization like a fish in water, but also accelerate the implementation time of the project, like an economic "fast lane" construction. Only through these careful layouts can the Northeast region achieve sustained and rapid economic development like a galloping horse.
In addition, Northeast Education has been on the national listLow labor cost and high quality personneland other factors, providing a new opportunity for many talents to return to the Northeast and take root in the Northeast.
In summary, the geopolitical ripples set off by the Russia-Ukraine war have become a new engine for the rapid development of the Northeast region. The deepening of cooperation between China and Russia is like an economic carnival, so that the three northeastern provinces are no longer limited to heavy heavy industry, but actively change in the direction of industrial upgrading and diversified economic development, and constantly enhance their charm on the international stage, opening a new chapter of development. This is an exciting symphony of cooperation, allowing the two countries to compose a new movement on the big stage of common development.
Looking at the whole picture, the geopolitical turmoil brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war is both a huge opportunity and a challenge. In the face of this stormy wave, the Northeast region, like a brave navigator, clung to the rudder and did not let go of any trace of wind and wave power. In this magnificent historical picture, the Northeast region has shown a strong determination: to continuously expand the advantages of industry and equipment manufacturing. While eliminating the hidden dangers of food security, in order to sail further in this storm, the Northeast region is committed to improving the business environment and promoting the implementation of research industrialization. In this new historical period, the Northeast region is like a proud explorer, daring to break through the difficulties and pursue greater opportunities. We look forward to the fact that in this historical adventure, the Northeast region can create a more brilliant legend and show us an exciting picture.