If you want to know more exciting content, come and follow My Steel.
1. This week's mine review.
This week, the origin trading was deserted, and the auction market was dismal. **Generally stable, local**. Since the warm front continued to move north on December 24, there is no obvious support point in the production area, and the coal industry has entered the active destocking cycle. According to the statistics of Mysteel thermal coal research team, the sample ore points have increased 35 times and decreased 66 times this week. This week's mine average is **5874 yuan ton, down 2 yuan ton from last week.
On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of thermal coal mines this week was 913%, compared with 0A drop of 6 percentage points. This week, 6 mines were completely shut down, involving a total production capacity of 40.2 million tons, but large mines are the mainstay, with more than half of the production capacity exceeding 10 million tons. Involving Nissan in 3About 80,000 tons. There are 8 resumption mines, involving a production capacity of 13 million tons, mainly small mines. Since the heavy snowfall in early December, the country's thermal coal mines have experienced a wide range of snowfall shutdowns, resumption of production after snow, and active production reduction of overhaul and inventory backlog at the end of the year, and the capacity utilization rate has been maintained above 91%, and the production intensity is declining. As a result of the forced supply guarantee policy in the early stage, some coal mines completed their annual production tasks ahead of schedule, reduced production and stopped production, and by the end of the year, there was no production license. There are also some coal mines that have completed more than 100% of the low-price supply guarantee tasks for power plants, and have no motivation to maintain the high-yield production rhythm under the pressure of supply assurance.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of origin decreased by 9 from last week4 percentage points. The main production area is in a state of general decline, from the inventory of the entire industry, starting last week, after the heavy snow transit, the inventory in Beigang has ushered in a high-intensity drop in the warehouse, this week after the warm winter trend is confirmed, within the research cycle, the first business has taken the initiative to dump the goods to the warehouse, the inventory is decreasing day by day, and the weakening of downstream demand will transmit the pressure to the upstream origins, so this week showed a slight reduction in production, a large reduction in the phenomenon of the warehouse.
2. Mine profits.
On the whole, the overall profit performance this week was stable, with a slight decrease of 05 percentage points. The profits of large-scale mines and low-calorie mines are still supported, and the heating demand will still release rigid procurement space, which is good for low-calorie coal. The medium-calorie coal market is relatively cold, and from the survey feedback, the demand for urea will pick up at the beginning of the year, and the demand for high-calorie coal replenishment has been released to the market, and only the market demand for medium-calorie coal is relatively weak.
See Table 1, by mining area, the overall profit performance of the mine is relatively stable, Shanxi Jinbei Shuozhou two weeks ago snowfall large-scale reduction in production, this week has resumed normal production, capacity utilization rate compared with last week significantly better, high supply corresponds to the pressure downward.
See Table 2, in terms of mine size, the profit of large mines increased by 1 month-on-month5 percentage points, the main reason is that the 10 million-level lignite mine in eastern Mongolia stopped production this week, because the mine has been maintained below 300 yuan for a long time, and the average of large mines has been relatively increased due to the shutdown. Shaanxi also has tens of millions of large mines out of production, and the mine output is far lower than the average of this type of mine. Therefore, the shutdown of low-calorie mines has caused a recovery in profits, and at the same time, it also supports the fact that downstream demand is weak.
See Table 3, in terms of mining methods, the profits of open-pit and underground mines remained deadlocked this week, with less than one percentage point up and down.
See Table 4, in terms of calorific value, heating does release enough demand space for low-calorie coal, of course, the shutdown of low-calorie lignite mines has also helped low-calorie coal margins to improve.
3. Outlook for next week.
The end of this week will turn over the chapter of this year's strong supply situation, and in the short term, it can be determined that with the arrival of the new year of the Gregorian calendar, the production reduction and shutdown mines will resume work and production in stages, and it is expected that the production capacity will rebound greatly, and the task of ensuring supply will also start again.
In the long run, the long-term agreement coverage rate is signed at 80% of the coal consumption of power plants this year, and some mines with local backgrounds have taken the initiative to press down to the production coal mines according to 80% of the long-term agreement tasks, directly reducing supply from the supply side, and the profits of coal enterprises will be supported with the reduction of supply pressure. On the one hand, the market coal supply or usher in more elasticity, cost pressure or further downward, on the other hand, the trend of warm winter weather in the north after a short interruption of the cold wave back to the existing track, is expected to be high in the past two weeks year-on-year, the terminal initiative to go to the pace of the warehouse to accelerate, the market center or continue to decline.
Disclaimer: MySteel strives to use the information accurately, objectively and fairly in the content and opinions expressed in the information, but does not guarantee whether it needs to be changed. The information provided by MySteel is for the customer's decision-making reference only, and does not constitute a direct recommendation for the customer's decision-making, and the customer should not replace its own independent judgment, and any decision made by the customer has nothing to do with mysteel. The copyright of this report belongs to mysteel, without permission, prohibited**, violators will be prosecuted.