Although the inflection point of steel accumulation last week came earlier than in previous years, the range of steel accumulation this week has slowed down. In November, the export growth rate turned positive and macro expectations boosted, and the black commodities ** as a long allocation under the leadership of funds performed well: steel prices followed the market in the short term** strengthened. However, the fundamentals are still difficult to change, and the contradiction between supply and demand continues to accumulate, and it is predicted that the pressure on the accumulation of inventory will gradually increase in December, and steel prices will consolidate at a high level in the near futureHowever, it should be noted that if the accumulation speed at the end of the year and the beginning of the year will exceed that of previous years, steel prices may face the highest risk.
1.The rhythm of supply and demand has changed, and the inventory pressure has eased marginally
In the warm winter of this year, the temperature is generally high, according to the feedback from Mysteel grassroots research cement plants and some construction sites, the project funds are relatively abundant, and there is still a rush before the end of the year: this week, the cement output in East China increased by 131% to 278650,000 tons, the thread table needs to increase by 6 month-on-month740,000 tons, the social treasury fell by 3040,000 tons;This week, the inventory in the hot coil factory fell by 3750,000 tons, the largest decline among the five major timbers, indicating that the demand resilience is still high. It is expected that downstream steel demand will remain relatively stable or decline slightly in December.
At present, the infrastructure rush in East China and South China is the main support for terminal steel demand, but according to the situation in the past five years, the terminal demand in the above two places generally declined significantly five to six weeks before the Spring Festival. Considering that the current decline in steel production is still slow, as well as the late Spring Festival this year, the inventory pressure of steel mills may be significantly reflected in January next year. According to the model, according to the current average decline in steel mill output, the monthly accumulation of steel mills in January next year will reach 2.16 million tons, exceeding the average level of the past four years (the average monthly accumulation of 1.78 million tons in January in the past four years).
2.The contradiction of winter storage is afraid to intensify the inventory pressure
December into the steel winter storage season, according to market research, thread and hot coil winter storage psychological prices are mostly concentrated in 3600-3700 yuan tons and 3700-3800 yuan tons, but by the market optimism, the current thread and hot coil spot ** are more than 4000 yuan tons. In the face of pessimistic market expectations, most of the best businesses are less willing to store in winter.
In addition, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission recently issued the "Notice on Standardizing the Management of Enterprises and Strictly Prohibiting All Kinds of Falsehoods", which standardizes the management of the traditional steel trade winter storage pallet model, which is not conducive to the winter storage of enterprises at the capital level.
In addition, in the case of low willingness to store in winter this year, some steel mills also choose to self-store. However, judging from the speed of accumulation in steel mills in December this year, the growth rate of accumulation is higher than the average level of previous years in the case of slow output decline, that is, the self-storage of steel mills will also increase the inventory pressure of steel mills.
On the whole, steel production fell slowly in December, the resilience of downstream demand still exists, steel prices are consolidating at a high level, and the contradiction between steel supply and demand will continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of steel prices after the expected weakening of the high-level meeting, as well as the risk of increased inventory pressure after the seasonal decline in subsequent demand.
Thread:This week's thread production increased by 020,000 tons to 261120,000 tons, of which the short process increased by 20,000 tons month-on-month to 3660,000 tons. At present, short-process production remains profitable (this week, the profit of valley power in Jiangsu is 244 yuan, and the profit of flat power is 52 yuan), of which East China and South China are close to full production. In addition, in view of the dry season in Sichuan in December, the profit of flat power production will be compressed to the edge of profit and loss. The overall output of electric furnaces decreased slowly, maintaining an average of about 350,000 tons per week. In terms of long process, the resumption of production of some steel mills in central China is superimposed on the current thread rolling line in mid-to-late December, and there is less maintenance: the pressure at the ** end of the thread is not reduced: it is expected that the average weekly output in December may be at a high level of 2.62 million tons.
This week's total thread inventory accumulation range is narrower than last week's inventory (this week's inventory accumulation is 220,000 tons, down from 8 last week80,000 tons), of which the social treasury has been transferred from the accumulation to the storage. The impact of weather is small, and infrastructure projects are underpinned to maintain the resilience of demand in East and South China. And judging from the situation in the past five years, the demand in East China and South China fell significantly in the five or six weeks before the Spring Festival.
On the whole, the production remains relatively high, resulting in the seasonal accumulation trend of threads. According to the balance sheet, the pressure of thread accumulation may be reflected in January, which is only lower than the same period in 2020 in the past five years.
Hot Roll:This week's hot coil output decreased by 40,000 tons week-on-week, falling to 3.22 million tons from a new high last week. According to Mysteel research, there will be new rolling line maintenance of steel mills next week, and output may continue to fall.
This week, the destocking of hot coils greatly exceeded expectations, and the total inventory fell by 13 week-on-week50,000 tons to 3.27 million tons. At the level of social treasury: the social warehouse of hot coil in South China has declined significantly, mainly due to the short-term obstruction of the circulation channels of the hot rolled market in South China and the conversion of hot coil production of some steel mills to building materials, resulting in a sharp decline in the supply of hot coil in steel mills in South China. At the factory level: At the end of this week, the accumulation of the warehouse began to decline, mainly due to the overhaul of the hot rolling line of some steel mills and the acceleration of steel mills' delivery to the market.
This week's hot coil table needs to increase by 4 week-on-week60,000 tons to 33570,000 tons, the inventory-to-sales ratio dropped to 68 days (new low for the year). At the end of the manufacturing industry, the demand for hot coils may be further boosted. The manufacturing, infrastructure and exports of the downstream of HRC have not seen a seasonal weakening, and the strong demand for HRC has led to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions in HRC very slowly.
Iron Ore:This week, the weekly average price of PB powder in Qingdao Port was 990 yuan ton, which was 7 yuan ton higher than last week. The speed of steel accumulation has slowed down, the export growth rate has turned from negative to positive, and the market is more optimistic about the release of positive expectations for the upcoming Politburo meeting, and black commodities have stopped falling and turned up. As of Friday, Qingdao Port PB powder** stood at 1,008 yuan ton, breaking through a new high since the first quarter of last year.
This week, the output of hot metal fell more than expected, and there are still more steel mills planned for maintenance in mid-to-late DecemberAt the same time, the accumulation of port inventory has been increasing, and the number of available days of port inventory has rebounded to the highest point in the second half of the year. The trend of iron ore surplus continues to expand, but the market is still dominated by policy expectations, iron ore as a long allocation of funds, in the absence of a sharp decline in steel demand or a further increase in port inventory, the overall mine price will still be small.
Bifocal:This week's low-sulfur main coking coal * weekly average **2450 yuan ton, the same as last week. Affected by the news of the resumption of production of some coal mines and the association's comments on the balance of supply and demand in the coal market, the fear of heights in downstream coking and steel enterprises has not decreased, the sentiment of receiving goods is low, and the unsold rate of coking coal has rebounded. However, after the opening of the coking coal winter storage and replenishment window in early December, the coking coal inventory in the sample steel mills and coking enterprises increased significantly this week. This week, it was confirmed that some coal mines in the main producing areas have resumed production one after another, but the arrival of the supervision team still has an impact on the start and output of coal mines. It is expected that it will be difficult for domestic coal production to increase significantly in winter, and there is still room for growth during the winter storage window.
Due to the expectation of loss expansion in downstream steel mills and strong resistance, the weekly average of quasi-first-class coke in the port this week was 2416 yuan, down 14 yuan tons from last week, indicating that coking steel is still in the game: due to the high level of coking coal and the third round of coke increase has not yet landed, the losses of coke enterprises have intensified.
Considering that it is difficult to have a sharp decline in steel production in December, and the demand for coke is still there, it is expected that the double coke ** will continue to consolidate at a high level in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk after the market sentiment is lower.
Note: In the textThe number represents **:
Thread: Shanghai threadhrb400e20mm
Hot coil: Shanghaiq235b4.75*1500*c.
Iron ore: Qingdao PortpbPowder (car plate including tax wet ton**).
Coke: Rizhao Port quasi-first-class delivery
Coking coal: Linfen low-sulfur main coke