Market demand.
The world's demand is in sync with China's demand.
According to the consensus, Industry 10 is the age of the steam engine, industry 20 is the era of electrification, industry 30 is the information age, industry 40 is the era of using information technology to promote industrial transformation, that is, the era of intelligence. In the era of intelligence, electric energy has naturally become a "hard currency of energy".
The situation needs - the world has been bitter for a long time.
Since July 1944, when the United States promoted the "Bretton Woods system", the United States has never stopped harvesting the world with the dollar as a financial leader. On August 15, 1971, Nixon announced the closure of the ** exchange window, effectively marking the end of the Bretton Woods system. The reason for the end was that the United States over-issued currency for its own interests, and as a result, people began to doubt the value of the dollar, so they exchanged dollars from the United States on a large scale.
Later, in addition to pegging the value of the dollar with oil, the United States also created the use of the "dollar tide" to harvest the whole world. Under the Bretton Woods system, $35 is equivalent to 1 ounce**, and 1 ounce in troy = 311035 grams, or 1 gram**, was approximately equivalent to 1$125. Today, December 15, 2023, the spot*** is 2035 per ounce$58, or $1 at the time of the establishment of the Bretton Woods system719%, a depreciation of at least 98%, which in itself is a great ransacking of the whole world.
The "dollar tide" is that the United States regulates the circulation of dollars in countries outside the United States by cutting interest rates and raising interest rates. When interest rates are cut, the world supply of dollars increases, the world economy enters an active period, and the world wealth continues to increase; When the world economy prospers to a certain extent, the United States raises interest rates, causing the dollar to flow back to the United States, and other countries have tight liquidity, economic crises, industrial management difficulties, and even bankruptcy, at this time the United States begins to buy overseas high-quality assets cheaply. Through a cycle of interest rate cuts and rate hikes, the United States has completed the looting of the world's wealth. Of course, the better the timing of interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts, the better the effect of looting. Therefore, looting also needs to be technological.
Initially, the United States organized a group of experts to argue that "this is a normal market law." After a long time, everyone knows that this is the United States drinking the blood of the world. However, at this time, no country had the ability and courage to challenge the blood-sucking action of the United States.
Let's start with "incapable". In May 1973, 239 banks from 15 countries in the United States, Canada and Europe announced the official establishment of SWIFT, with its headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. SWIFT is currently the most widely used communication system for international payments and the largest amount of settlement funds. This system is a U.S.-led, dollar-based communications system. Combined with the world dollar shaped by the United States through the Bretton Woods system, a large number of settlements in the world use the dollar as the payment currency. Therefore, as long as you carry out international **, whether it is import or export, whether it is selling ore or mobile phones, it is basically difficult to bypass the US dollar. Because of this, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict on February 15, 2022, the United States kicked Russia out of the SWIF system, resulting in the Russian currency, the ruble**.
Now let's go on to say "no guts". In 1992, Soros, a Wall Street financial tycoon, became famous for shorting the pound and was listed as the least welcome speculator by the Bank of England. On October 20, 2009, the United States caused the Greek debt crisis through intelligence warfare, and then kicked off the shorting of the euro with the help of the US dollar interest rate hike. On February 8, 2010, the euro was shorted by raising interest rates. The 1982 Mexican debt crisis, the 1998 Southeast Asian economic crisis, and in July 2001, the continued interest rate hike of the US dollar triggered a continuous recession in Argentina, which eventually led to an economic crisis.
While it is true that there are problems of one kind or another in these countries where economic crises occur, the probability of real problems should not be so high. Doesn't the United States have any problems at all? Why hasn't the U.S. economy collapsed? That is, the United States can channel its own crises by creating crises in other countries. The United States can even be said to be "fishing for law enforcement". Or that you have a cold, and he will take the opportunity to find a way to make you die of fever. This is more vicious than taking advantage of the fire to rob, because this fire was deliberately set by the United States.
The world is bitter and beautiful for a long time!
There is a great need for a healthy and benign currency to replace the dollar in today's world.
Conditional demand. The British pound was the silver standard currency, and the British pound assumed the role of the world dollar before the dollar became the world dollar. Through its role as a world dollar, the pound has provided itself with access to cheap world resources and a vast world market, but the UK is not very proficient in using interest rate cuts and interest rate hikes to harvest the world, and in general, it is still a "conscience currency".
The United States, through its military strength, economic strength and gold standard dollar, as well as a huge amount of ** reserves, pushed the pound off the world dollar throne. However, since the dollar became the world dollar, the descendants of these European criminals, not only have good brains, but also bad hearts, and after letting the dollar get out of the ** anchor, they have created the method of harvesting the whole world through the "dollar tide", and also created the "middle-income trap" theory that can hide their pranks. Tell the harvested country that it is not that I have harvested you to death, but that there is a "middle-income trap", and you are not able to cross this trap, so it is the end.
It's really "the back waves of the Yangtze River push the front waves, and the generation is stronger than the next".
So, no country's currency challenges the dollar?
United States 25With a GDP of 4,645 trillion US dollars, the volume is huge, and such a huge volume, through "tidal movement", a small economy simply cannot bear it. In addition to the United States, the GDP of the world's oldest developed countries, Japan has a maximum of 42335 trillion dollars, followed by Germany 40754 trillion dollars, then the UK 30706 trillion dollars, France 2$7840 trillion.
Japan and Germany both have US troops stationed, so Japan has been unable to breathe for 30 years by a "Plaza Accord", and Shinzo can only engage in "**economics" to save the Japanese economy. What is ** economics, which is to increase Japan's exports through the depreciation of the yen currency, and such a monetary environment still expects the yen to stabilize and become the world dollar? Even Japan itself does not daydream about it, and their purpose in doing so is to get the Japanese economy out of the quagmire. Japan's big "mud bodhisattva" is thankful that it can protect itself in the "tidal movement" of the dollar.
There is still a difference between the euro and the yen, although Germany has tens of thousands of US troops, but the euro is the common currency of many European countries, and France is still a permanent member of the Security Council, so the background of the euro is much deeper than the yen, but after several shorts in the United States, in July 2008, 1 euro was exchanged for 16 US dollars, today, December 16, 2023, 1 euro to 10896 US dollars, the euro depreciated by 31 against the dollar9%, and the share of the euro in international payments has fallen sharply. From 38 in 20214% fell to less than 25%.
It would be nice if the pound could save its life now. In the early days of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian ruble was almost bankrupt by the United States, and on February 23, 2022, 1 Russian ruble was exchanged for 00123 US dollars, the lowest fall on March 15, 2022 1 ruble to 0$0085, 4 trading days**3089%。Fortunately, Russia is rich in energy resources, and it is the Russian ruble that is brought back to life by linking energy to the ruble. Canada and Italy have largely lost their presence over the years.
India has 33,864 trillion US dollars in GDP, but the economy of the whole country has not yet been regularized, and the companies investing in India, whether it is China or the United States, whether it is Russia or the United Kingdom, he dares to deceive anyone. The US dollar depreciated by 24 against the US dollar against the US dollar from 63 rupees per US dollar in January 2018 to 83 rupees per US dollar in December 20231%, and this depreciation trend is still very stable.
For China, whose GDP is second only to the United States and ranks second in the world, not only its 18The GDP of 1 trillion US dollars is closest to that of the United States, and the Chinese yuan is appreciating against the US dollar. From July 2005 1 USD to 8277 yuan, to January 2014 1 US dollar to 6093 yuan, the renminbi against the US dollar is almost unilaterally upward, appreciating 26 in 8 years and 6 months4%。From January 2014 to July 2015, the one-and-a-half-year period remained stable at 6Around 2 yuan, it is basically sideways. From August 2015 to the present, it has been in a low-level fluctuation stage, at a rate of 67 yuan is the central axis, up and down 0The amplitude of 5 yuan, during which the USD/RMB did not exceed 72555 yuan.
Conclusion: No matter how the United States engages in the "dollar tide", the US dollar is either unilateral against the RMB, or it is sideways at a low level and wide at a low level. It is understandable that the US dollar is not unilateral against the RMB** and is sideways at a low level, but why is it in a wide range at a low level? If you want to bump the renminbi out of problems, this is a helpless move by the United States.
The fundamental reason for supporting USD/RMB** is the large-scale production, technological upgrading and industrial development of China's industry. Among them, large-scale and the whole industry is China's natural endowment, only scientific and technological upgrading is a common opportunity for the whole world, and developed countries are actively occupying the commanding heights of science and technology. But unfortunately, China is now making breakthroughs in all aspects, such as automobile engines, aircraft engines, high-end chips, etc., and the United States' high-tech sanctions against China in the past two years have basically ended in failure. In 2023, ASML will fully open up to the Chinese mainland market, and in the first three quarters, shipments to China rose three times in a row, with year-on-year growth of % and 1850%, respectively. We know that this is also a conspiracy of the United States to suppress the development of China's lithography machine R&D enterprises through dumping. It's too late, though. China's new energy vehicles and high-end products such as robots and drones do need a lot of chips, and in 2020, China's imported chips are worth 24 trillion yuan. Therefore, ASML accelerated the export of lithography machines to Chinese mainland, and China accepted it, which also helped China, but China did not thank it.
In addition, China has actively carried out large-scale RMB trading, and on July 16, 2008, it officially opened the "RMB ***aum Shanghai Gold Main Link" in Shanghai; On October 23, 2013, the "RMB Iron Ore**" IM iron ore main connection was officially opened in Shanghai; On March 30, 2018, the "RMB Oil**" SCM** main connection was officially opened in Shanghai. I think this kind of opening sequence of gold first and then iron and then oil is very cautious and scientific, and it has gradually opened up the ** market of RMB.
China has also actively promoted the internationalization of the renminbi, established its own cross-border RMB trading system (CIPS), and reached currency swap agreements with several countries to encourage more cross-border transactions to be settled in renminbi. RMB is the physical basis of RMB internationalization, RMB iron ore ** and RMB oil ** open up a broad space for the payment and use of RMB, and this space is absolutely under China's control. According to the 2023 edition of the World Energy Statistical Yearbook, the international volume in 2022 will be 2.1 billion tons, and according to the data of the Chinese Bureau of Statistics, China will import 508.28 million tons in 2022, accounting for 2775%, or about 2,435 billion yuan. In 2021, China imported 112.4 billion tons, accounting for 16% of the world's iron ore **68% of 6.3 billion tons.
Whoever imports will easily control the initiative of the transaction.
In short, China's late-mover advantage in four aspects: economic size, industrial production capacity, RMB ** market and the establishment of the RMB cross-border trading system, China has become the only country that can resist and break the "dollar tide". During this pandemic, the U.S. has been raising interest rates, other countries have been forced to raise interest rates, and only China has been doing the opposite – cutting interest rates all the time. Moreover, China's problems are far less serious than those in the United States, as can be seen from the frequent visits to China by US dignitaries and governors.
Technical support. Regional development is the foundation of world development. Regional development requires regions to have the opportunity to develop their own regional advantages and transform regional advantages into economic advantages. The exertion of regional advantages requires a smooth flow of logistics, capital and information.
As an "infrastructure madman", China's high-speed rail, highway network, large aircraft and village-to-village connections have provided conditions for the smooth transfer of Chinese and goodsChina's big data technology, cloud computing technology, optical cable, large-scale 5G base stations, and large-scale data centers have been completed, laying a deep, solid and broad foundation for the smooth flow of capital and information in ChinaThe experience of the national network operation of the currency and the digital yuan are the icing on the cake for the smooth flow of capital.
Whether it is high-speed rail or electric vehicles, it has low operating costs and large demand for electric energyThe Internet of Things and intelligent production supported by big data, cloud computing, optical fiber and cable and 5G technology are major consumers of electric energy. China's large-scale critical power generation technology, nuclear power technology, wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower technology have provided sufficient electricity for mankindChina's UHV transmission technology, especially flexible UHVDC transmission technology, provides strong physical support for the long-distance and inexpensive transmission of these huge amounts of electricity.
High-quality, sufficient, and convenient electricity**, as well as the abundant supply of high-quality products provided by strong productivity supported by this strong high-quality energy system, is the place where these energy and products are produced, China's renminbi, which has become a powerful anchor for the world's hard currency.
Subsequent. As of the end of June 2023, China has signed more than 230 Belt and Road cooperation documents with more than 150 countries and more than 30 international organizations. There are 195 sovereign states in the world, and 150 countries participate in the "Belt and Road".