Food prices are insane**!On December 2, hogs, corn, and wheat ** changed!
Introduction] In December, the national agricultural products market"The storm has changed dramatically"！In the grain market, grain **"Tumbling upside down", corn and wheat markets show a trend that exceeds expectations, and the risk of corn reluctance to sell grass is high, and the wheat market is lower, and the center of gravity of wheat has moved down significantly, and the supply of some merchants has fallen below 145 yuan, and in the pig market, the pig price is short-lived, due to the lack of support for consumption, the lack of favorable conditions for demand, the willingness of slaughtering companies to reduce prices has become stronger, and the market has shown a mixed trend, so what happened to the market?
First of all, the concentrated selling pressure on cereals and corn has risen, and the bearish sentiment in the market is high!
Recently, due to the low auction of imported corn, the autumn grain corn production is expected to be stronger, the pessimism of the business is strong, the demand side of the library sentiment is insufficient, due to the increase in the phenomenon of excessive corn toxins in the tide grain, the increase in the profits of imported corn in the south The domestic market is cold, the procurement mentality of feed enterprises is weak, and the deep processing is mainly based on replenishment
Due to the low temperature in the early stage of the Northeast region, although the snowfall continues, the quality of the grain source deteriorates, and the tide grain toxins in some areas exceed the standard
Judging from the market feedback, Baicheng Meihua in Northeast China, Liaoning Yihai Kerry, COFCO Biochemical Elm, Hohhot Fufeng, Tieling Guotou, Heilongjiang Daqing Yipin, Jiaji Biochemical, Bei'an Xiangyu and Fujin Xiangyu, the company's corn spot ** fell by 10 20 yuan tons, and the listed price of conventional corn in Heijiliao area was 116 ～ 1.26 yuan catty, tide grain** gradually fell below 09 yuan catty!
In North China and the Huanghuai market, due to the recent increase in the transfer of grain sources in Northeast China, the local corn has increased in the amount of the local corn, and most of the deep processing has been lowered, but with the decline of corn, the local production enterprises are reluctant to sell at a high price, the performance of corn purchase and sales is average, and the demand for building a warehouse is insufficient
Among them, the arrival level of deep-processed corn in Shandong is about 817 cars, the amount of enterprises has decreased, the price reduction sentiment of manufacturers has weakened, and the deep processing in Shandong is mainly weak and stable, and the mainstream corn is at 1284～1.375 yuan catty, most of the ** in 129～1.33 yuan catty!
According to the analysis of the institution, due to the high tide in the short term, the risk of corn grain selling pressure is strong, the import of corn continues, the feed enterprises replace the grain sufficiently, and the corn is currently weak, but with the tide, the grain moisture continues to be lost, this month, the first businessmen and enterprises will concentrate on the market to buy corn, the market's enthusiasm for buying and selling may be transformed into vigorous, and the voice of grain farmers may be strengthened, and the main thing is still strong!However, judging from the trend, due to the slowdown in the growth rate of the aquaculture industry and the easing of corn, it is expected that the adjustment will be limited
Secondly, wheat **substantially**!
In the recent wheat market, there has been a significant trend, and most of the listed milling enterprises in the main winter wheat producing areas in China are low, and the center of gravity of wheat prices has also fallen below 15 yuan catty, the supply of listed wheat of some enterprises fell to 145 yuan or more!
Judging from the market feedback, the main domestic winter wheat producing areas are generally listed 10 40 yuan tons of wheat, of which, Shandong Heze Tianbang, Shanxian Feixiang 40 yuan tons, Zaozhuang developed flour, Liaocheng Huatong flour, Heze Huarui and other enterprise entities **10 24 yuan tons. Shandong wheat** fell to 1455～1.53 yuan catty, the main body ** fell to 147～1.51 yuan catty. In the Hebei market, Baixiang Wudeli, Shenzhou Wudeli, Xiongxian Wudeli, Hebei Jinshahe, Handan Wudeli and other enterprises are mainly engaged in 10 20 yuan tons, and the main business of Hebei wheat fell to 146~1.495 yuan. In the Henan market, the main wheat volume of Xinxiang Zhixiang Flour, Zhoukou Wudeli, Xinxiang Sifeng, Anyang Hualong Farm, Suiping Wudeli and other enterprises fell by 10 30 yuan tons, and fell again to 1445~1.52 yuan catty!
According to the analysis of the institution, the current domestic small and medium-sized flour enterprises concentrated operating rate of about 384%, a slight decrease from the previous month, the operating rate of milling enterprises is low, and the consumption stage lacks actual benefits!Due to the weak trend of flour, the confidence of the first business to do the balance is insufficient, the market is mainly only procurement, inventory consumption, most milling enterprises are facing a sharp increase in inventory accumulation pressure, the enthusiasm for reducing inventory has become stronger, the consumption of raw grain is slow, and the mentality of replenishing inventory is not high. Superimposed on the recent corn **sharply**, soybean meal ** also weakened sharply, bran ** continued to decline, the profit margin of by-products of milling enterprises is weak, and some enterprises show a certain loss pressure!
In terms of wheat, recently, the bullish sentiment of the main body of grain has been loosened, the corn market has fallen, the corn centralized warehouse construction cycle is approaching, the phenomenon of wheat vacating has increased, the staple grain has improved, the arrival of door-to-door vehicles by manufacturers has increased sharply, and the sentiment of pressure storage has become stronger!
Therefore, in the short and long term, wheat ** has fallen more than expected. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate weakly, but in the second half of the year, as the winter solstice date approaches, consumption increases or improves, flour demand may increase, and the market may gradually **!
Thirdly, pork *** backfires!
In the recent pig market, the operating rate of domestic slaughtering enterprises has increased significantly, and the operating rate of sample slaughtering enterprises has increased to 34Around 17%, the average daily slaughter volume of the slaughterhouse has increased significantly!Personally, I believe that on the one hand, due to the existence of market sentiment, pig prices are at a low level, the atmosphere of slaughtering enterprises is getting stronger, and there is a certain accumulation atmosphere in some regions, which supports the increase in the operating rate of slaughtering enterprisesOn the other hand, near the end of the year, the favorable slaughter cycle in the south is approaching, and some slaughtering enterprises have a certain enthusiasm for stocking up before the year, which temporarily supports the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises to rise!
But from a rational point of view, due to the lack of downstream white strips, the first business to resist the price increase mentality of white strips, the downstream market slaughter willingness to slow down, the slaughterhouse white pig ex-factory price is difficult, the price difference of wool white is at a low level, and the slaughterhouse pig slaughter sample loss of 38 yuan, which also inhibits the company's enthusiasm to raise prices and collect pigs!With the loosening of the sentiment of the end of the breeding, the sentiment of the second fattening slaughter has increased sharply, the source of pigs in the society is concentrated, the arrival of pigs in the slaughterhouse has increased significantly, the stop plan time is significantly advanced, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, the cost pressure of slaughtering enterprises is large, and the mentality of taking advantage of the situation is strong, and the domestic pig price is showing a situation of rising and falling!
According to the analysis of the institution, at this time, the average price of slaughtered pigs in the three yuan is **005 yuan catty, ** fell to 1446 yuan catty, the domestic market continued the trend of most of the first, only the southern sporadic area of the pig price continued to offset the performance slightly, the northern region of the pig price fell below 7 yuan jin again, the market sentiment has deteriorated significantly!
Personally, I think that in the short term, due to the fact that the consumption money is not easy to earn, the pickling is good for the slow start, and the breeding end of the commercial pig **"Only increase, not decrease"It is expected that the phased pig price may continue to weaken in a narrow range, especially with the increase in the slaughter plan of the group pig breeding enterprises, and the pig price is not lacking in the risk of falling below the old low!However, as the temperature in the north and south has been lowered, although it is conducive to making money slowly, but as the temperature in the south gradually reaches the requirements of pickling, pork ** goes down, and the enthusiasm of pickling may be greatly boosted, which will also lead to pig prices showing seasonal performance, rationally, 10 days before and after the winter solstice is the most concentrated stage of pickling, it is expected that pig prices can reach a high point this month, pig prices, but limited by the amount of commercial pigs, pig prices are not the same. However, limited by the number of commercial pigs and the current high number of frozen pigs in the domestic market, the height of this month's pig price may be limited