On January 26, the UN International Court of Justice ordered Israel to "prevent genocide." In response, Netanyahu said that he would "continue this war until it is absolutely victorious." Israel's Hamas war in Gaza has not stopped, but the outcome is beginning to be clear: the war in Gaza will be carried out with the "Greater Israel Plan" and press the button on it for the time being. This may be the absolute victory that Israel wants.
Hello everyone, this is the current family language, I am Li Jiantao!
As far as the current pattern of the Middle East is concerned, the political solution for the establishment of a Palestinian state still lacks all the conditions for implementation. On the one hand, Palestine does not have the capacity and conditions for statehood, and it cannot eliminate all kinds of Israeli oppression on him. On the other hand, Israel does not have the capacity and conditions to establish a "Greater State of Israel".
In the current war in Gaza, the Israeli army can defeat Hamas and destroy Gaza, but it must not completely eliminate Hamas. For the Palestinian people, Hamas is a resistance movement, an ideology of resistance. Hamas already has a certain religious character. Only by eliminating the Palestinians will it be possible for Israel to ** Hamas. But this is genocide, which Israel cannot do in contemporary international politics.
So Israel does not have the ability or the conditions to occupy and rule Gaza and the West Bank and establish a great state of Israel. Although Israeli ultranationalists have always wanted to do so, Israel has no chance of achieving it.
What Israel has a chance to achieve is the establishment of the Greater Israel Plan.
The "Greater Israel Plan" is to maintain the size of the territory under its current de facto domination, while at the same time imposing colonial and semi-colonial rule over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, encroaching on their territory at any time. Let the Palestinians live in the area, but deny them the right to vote, and impose a policy of apartheid on them to ensure that the regime is always in the hands of the Israelis.
This is the only thing the Israelis are currently able to do. Therefore, the most likely outcome of the Gaza war is Israel's further implementation of the "Greater Israel Plan".
As far as the Palestinians are concerned, statehood has always been their expectation and goal because it is in their best interest. So what is the reason why the Palestinians have not been able to build a state?
The answer is Israel, and although there are various reasons, the main one is Israel's obstruction. For most of its history, Israel has been preventing and undermining Palestinian statehood in various ways. On the other hand, Israel has not been able to annex Gaza and the West Bank and establish a "Greater State of Israel".
Why are Palestinians and Israelis not able to achieve what they most want in the way that is best for them?
This has to do with the way international relations work. If a country is regarded as a living organism, then its operation is rule-based and pattern-based, rather than chaotic and arbitrary. If there is no certain model and law to restrain it, then not all countries can achieve the goals that are most beneficial to themselves, then there will be no losers, only successes. And this does not exist in reality.
So what is this pattern or law?
There are many factors involved, but in the final analysis, the most decisive factors are four factors: pattern, power, benefits and costs.
Pattern means that a country is always in a certain environment, and the state operates internally and externally. There are good and good factors in this environment, as well as bad and bad factors. When these favorable and unfavorable factors are intertwined, a trending environment is formed. This trending environment is the pattern. When there are many favorable factors, a favorable trend pattern will be formed. When there are many unfavorable factors, an unfavorable trend pattern will also be formed.
Out of the instinct to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, the behavior and consequences of a country's behavior will be constrained by this trend pattern. In other words, the reason why a country does not do what it does is not arbitrary, it is the result of following the trend pattern.
This text is too tongue-twisting to understand. Let's also return to the Israeli-Palestinian topic.
The reason why the Palestinians are unable to establish a state is that there is no trend pattern of statehood, either inside or outside him.
The biggest problem within Palestine is the inability to form a unified force and organization that meets the requirements of statehood. There are many factions and complex organizations within Palestine, and there are also great differences in views and ideas on the issue of statehood.
In the Middle East, there is also no pattern conducive to Palestinian statehood. Israel, with the support of the United States, is too strong militarily. The surrounding Arab countries and the Muslim brothers fought a total of five full-scale wars with Israel, all of which ended in defeat.
In the international community, it is even more impossible to form a trend pattern conducive to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Since it is Israel's biggest supporter, the United States is dominating the world. First after World War II, it became the first level of the superpowers, and then it became the hegemon of the unipolar world. From Jimmy though. Since Carter, all successive U.S. leaders have held that it is in the best strategic interest of the United States to promote the establishment of a Palestinian state. But the American Jewish lobby is too powerful and has hijacked American politics. Therefore, the international community under the leadership of the United States has not seriously promoted the establishment of Palestinian statehood. More often than not, it is to obey the will of Israel, rather than really helping the Palestinians to build a state. Rabin is only willing to trade land for peace, but not to the extent of helping Palestine build a state.
Conversely, there is no trend towards the establishment of a greater State of Israel.
The first is the United Nations, which has produced a series of resolutions and documents on Palestine. These resolutions and documents remain the basic principles of the international community's handling of the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
Secondly, it is the United States that does not support the plans of the Great State of Israel. Because it is not in the strategic interests of the United States. And without the support of the United States, Israel would not have been able to do this. Secondly, there is the issue of the resettlement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. If a greater state of Israel were to be established, there would be a high probability that there would be a large flow of refugees in the Middle East or Europe. This kind of consequence is difficult for both neighboring Arab countries and Western countries to bear.
Finally, there is no unanimity within Israel. In addition to the establishment of a Greater Israel State, there are other propositions, such as the idea of the "Greater Israel Plan" and the idea of "peace in exchange for the establishment of diplomatic relations". In Israel, it is the "Greater Israel Plan" that dominates the rhetoric of peace in exchange for reconciliation and the normalization of relations with Arab countries.
Another key factor is the balance of power. The balance of power between Palestine and Israel determines that Palestine cannot achieve statehood. But the balance of power between the Arab and Muslim worlds and Israel also determined that Israel could not achieve the establishment of a greater state of Israel.
The balance of power, or whether the balance of power can be maintained, is an important factor in determining the trend of international affairs. He usually refers to the military, economic, and demographic balance of power between the two sides or the two sides. In recent years, due to the increasing prominence of the role of technology, it has also been incorporated into the contrast of forces. In the end, these factors add up to form an influence. This kind of influence will promote the emergence of a trend pattern.
Militarily, economically and technologically, Israel has absolute superiority over the Palestinians. Especially in the military aspect, Israel is the absolute military hegemon in the Middle East. This position of military hegemony will not change for a long time. Not only that, in the past 20 years, Israel has also become an economic powerhouse and a technological power in the Middle East, and its technology can rank among the best in the world.
Naturally, this balance of power is not conducive to Palestinian statehood.
There is now a popular opinion on the Internet that what Israel is doing is because of "existential anxiety". At least from the point of view of the relative relationship of forces, this view is untenable. As the strongest military, economic and technological power in the Middle East, how can he be anxious about survival, not to mention that Israel is still the only country in the Middle East that has nuclear **.
The only thing Israel does not have an advantage in the balance of power is the size of the population. Israel's current population is approximately 7.3 million. The number of Palestinians is about 13.5 million, of which 5.1 million are in Gaza and the West Bank combined, and 2.2 million are living in Israel. Another half of the Palestinians live mainly in Jordan and Lebanon.
This demographic contrast and geographical distribution of the population became the main reason why Israel was unable to establish a greater state of Israel. It also had an impact on Israel's internal political rule. Israel does not dare to implement a universal electoral system that includes Palestinians, and can only impose limited elections with apartheid overtones, which is, to put it bluntly, to deprive Palestinians of the right to vote and to be elected.
So, in terms of the balance of power, it cannot realize the plan of the Great State of Israel.
Then there is the important question of why Israel wants to prevent the Palestinians from establishing a state. And why does the United States oppose the "Great State of Israel" and advocate a two-state political solution? How can the Palestinians reluctantly dominate the Gaza Strip and the West Bank in the face of Israel, which has a strong military advantage?
To explain this, it is necessary to mention that the fundamental reason that determines relations between States is interests, and nothing else. Values, whatever their historical connotations, only come into play in a particular phase between countries. In other words, the role of values is conditional and has special time requirements, while the role of interests is eternal and unconditional.
Let's start with Israel.
Palestinian statehood is the least in Israel's national interest. Because of history, geographical environment, limited living resources, the distribution of ethnicity and population, the distribution of religious beliefs, and so on, it is determined that Israel will not want the establishment of a Palestinian state. At present, Israel's greatest national interest is peace and development space, and note that development is spoken of here, not living space. Only Palestinians are faced with existential anxiety, and Israel is faced with expansion and development. Agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state does not necessarily solve these two problems. So, it's going to be against.
Let's talk about the United States. The greatest national interest of the United States is to maintain its hegemony and leadership position in the world. Therefore, the United States has completely different interests in the Middle East from Israel. The greatest interests of the United States in the Middle East were previously to secure oil and energy and to compete with the Soviet Union for influence, and now they are competing for influence with China and Russia. But either point will lead to such consequences, and the United States should fully consider the interests of Arab and Muslim countries.
So the United States must find a balance between the Arab and Muslim world and Israel. The need for this balance dictates that the United States cannot unilaterally support Israel's annexation of Gaza and the West Bank, but instead advocates a two-state political solution that Israel does not like. But because of the strength of the Jewish lobby at home and the need for electoral interests, the United States is equally unable to force Israel to accept the two-state solution.
This double tug-at by the Americans has finally created a situation that the Palestinians have to face: they cannot establish a state, but at the same time they can retain the Gaza Strip and the West Bank in colonial and semi-colonial form. This is the "butterfly effect".
There are also two supreme interests of the Palestinians, one is survival and the other is statehood. Now there is no hope of statehood, and the Palestinians can only barely survive.
It is not difficult for us to see that in the Middle East, interests are behind almost all international events. The values of democracy, racial equality, and racial equality given by the development of modern Western civilization have hardly been put into play.
Why is this so?
This is because there are conditions and time limits for values to play a decisive role, and they can only be possible in a world where the international community is ruled by the sole hegemon, or in a unipolar world. In modern terms, it came into play in the short period after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the United States became the sole superpower. The externalization of U.S. national interests during this period was manifested as a beacon, that is, the promotion of Western values led by the United States to the world. But since 2017, with the revival of China and the recovery of Russia, the world has begun to shift to multipolarity. The United States has begun to compete with China and Russia in terms of military, economy, and science and technology. At this time, the national interests of the United States have returned to the struggle for military, economic, and scientific and technological affairs. With the values of democracy, racial equality, it is no longer the first element of interaction or competition between nations.
Therefore, the view that the development of modern civilization to the environment of national interaction is determined by the values of democracy, ** and racial equality is not rigorous.
Finally, if Israel has such a powerful military, why doesn't it forcibly annex Gaza and the West Bank to achieve the national interests it most wants to achieve and establish a greater state of Israel?
Price! If Israel does so, it will pay far more than the benefits it receives. Look at the cost of Israel's war in Gaza and understand that Israel will not do it!
Therefore, the end of the war in Gaza is the landing of the "Greater Israel Plan"!