If you want to know more exciting content, come and pay attention to my steel According to the statistics of major excavator manufacturers by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 12,376 excavators of various types will be sold in January 2024, a year-on-year increase of 185%。Among them,5,421 units in China, a year-on-year increase of 577%；exports were 6,955 units, a year-on-year decrease of 073%。
In December 2023, the monthly sales of domestic excavators showed positive year-on-year growth for the first time this yearIn January 2024, the rally continued, with a month-on-month increase of 337 percentage points。In January, the growth rate of excavator exports decreased slightly year-on-year, and exports have formed a high base, and the proportion of export sales still remains more than half.
According to the latest data of the "CCTV Financial Excavator Index".In January, the overall operating rate of China's construction machinery was 4781%, higher than the operating rate in the same period last year (40.).61%）to lay the foundation for a "good start" for the economy in 2024. Among them, Jiangxi, Anhui, Zhejiang, and Hainan all have operating rates of more than 70%, ranking among the top four in the country.
China Chengxin International said that with the continuous increase and implementation of the domestic "steady growth" policy, infrastructure investment will still be an important factor to support the demand of the construction machinery industry in the future, but the real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage, and the boost to the demand for construction machinery is insufficientIt is expected that the domestic demand of the construction machinery industry will still be weak in 2024, but with the emergence of a low base effect, the decline in the industry may be further narrowed。In terms of exports, it is expected that the overseas market will still maintain a high degree of prosperity in 2024, but after the rapid growth of the past two years, the industry's exports have entered a stage of steady development, and the growth rate of export sales may further slow down.
Soochow ** said that in terms of domestic sales, from 2021 to 2023, the sales volume of domestic excavators will drop from 290,000 units to 90,000 units, a cumulative decrease of nearly 70%, and according to the eight-year ownership of domestic excavators of 1.7 million units, it is estimated that the average annual renewal demand center is about 150,000 unitsIt is expected that domestic excavator sales in 2024 will be -10% to +10% year-on-year。Overseas, overseas sales of construction machinery and U.S. bond interest rates show a negative correlation, overseas interest rate cuts are expected to be good for construction machinery to go to sea, it is expected that in 2024, the export revenue of major companies in the industry will account for more than 50%-60%, and the export profit margin is higher than that of the domestic, driving the profitability to continue to improve.
Dongguan ** said that the cumulative domestic sales of excavators fell close to the bottom of the last cycle, with the change of the industry's product structure, technology update and iteration and other factors to help shorten the duration of this round of downward cycleIt is expected that 2024 is expected to usher in a new round of upward cycleAfter the Spring Festival, the sales season will be ushered in.
Looking forward to the first quarter of 2024, Zhongtai believes that with the continuous issuance of trillions of treasury bond funds, since the beginning of the year, many provinces have disclosed local bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2024, and the physical workload of infrastructure is expected to drive the operating rate of construction machinery to increase, under the low base effectIt is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of domestic demand in the first quarter will improve marginally。According to the model, the domestic excavator sales in 2024 will be 1230,000 unitsA new round of update replacement cycle is expected to start
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