Recently, Lotu Technology (RUNTO) released the latest "China Smart Projection Retail Market Monthly Tracking" report, showing that the sales volume of the smart projection market in Chinese mainland in 2023 will be 58640,000 units, down 51%；The sales volume was 103700 million yuan, down 17 percent year-on-year3% - for this data, there are a lot of pessimistic methods in the industry: there are two main pessimistic views, the first is that the proportion of low-quality and low-price products below 500 yuan is too much, and the second is the problem of market decline.
Is it dominant to be under 500 yuan?
Lotu technology data shows that the sales volume of smart projectors below 500 yuan will reach 31 in 20239%, compared to 8 in 20222 percentage points, sales increased by 23% year-on-year.
In this regard, some "veterans" in the industry pointed out that the value of this data needs to be "further analyzed": on the one hand, low-quality products naturally correspond to low quality, which is not worthy of consumers' immersive pursuit of large-screen audio-visual. Low-quality and low-cost products "ruined" the reputation of projectors, which is not conducive to the long-term development of the industry.
On the other hand, the existence of low** products is a long-term phenomenon. This aspect is not a special case in 2023. And up to 23% of the increase in products below 500 yuan does not match the "shrinking demand" of the entire industry and the shrinking market demand of the entire consumer electronics industry at home and abroad in 2023.
In fact, some analysts believe that the great increase in the proportion of less than 500 yuan is likely to come from the change in the "statistical caliber". Since 2022, the 1LCD projection market has been booming, although it has also brought a large number of "emerging brands to join (at least 100 brands have been added in two years)", but it has also promoted the trend of "share concentration" of head brands (that is, there is little difference between the elimination of brands and new increments in the market in 2022-2023, and the elimination rate of new brands is very high). At the same time, a large number of new brands are ICT and TV brands, which are also different from the previous "Universe Brand Cigarettes" brand, which is "not in the stream" and can easily become a "system" data source.
These changes have led to a significant increase in the "entry rate" of low-grade products in data statistics - that is, the proportion of seemingly low-priced products has increased, but how much is a real increment and how much is a difference caused by different statistical data samples is debatable. It is not even known whether the change in the rate of entry into the command will be enough to make "negative growth positive".
In this regard, the Lotu report mentioned that "there are only 28 new brands with annual sales of more than 1,000 units", which is enough to show that the entry rate of 1LCD products in 2023 should be improved.
Market demand**, what is the real situation in 2023
While seeing the market size of smart projectors**, in 2023, we also need to see the "big environment" in which consumer electronics products, including mobile phones, NBs, PCs, and TVs, are in a trough in the domestic and global markets.
Among them, TV, as an audio-visual product "similar" to smart projection, in 2023, the shipment of brand complete machines in the TV market in Chinese mainland will be 36.56 million units, down 8 percent from 20224%。Among them, the overall decline in the fourth quarter reached a staggering 2%. In comparison, the smart projection product line, Lotu Technology data shows that the Double 11 market fell as high as 123%。
Overall,Some industry insiders analyzed that the real decline in the domestic smart projection market in the fourth quarter may be similar to that of TV products,Reach2Percent。 In particular, excluding the factors of increasing the entry rate of markets below 1,000 yuan, the annual decline in smart projection consumption will also exceed 10%.
It is also an audio-visual product, compared with smart projectors and TV, it is more dependent on the young market and has a worse rigid demand for consumption. In the context of the overall consumer electronics market downturn, its volatility tends to be higher: if the real sales of smart projectors in 2023** reach 1%, it will not surprise the author.
However, the reasons for this change in sales must be deeply understood: that is, changes in the consumption environment, especially 1) the global downturn in the consumer electronics industry, 2) the market overdraft before the epidemic stay-at-home economy, and 3) the squeeze of the travel economy in the first year after the epidemic, the three major factors occupy the "main body of the market decline". That is, the main reality of external factors,Let the level of the decline in smart projection in 2023 not be a reason to "negate" the future potential of this category。
The high-quality market is relatively stable, and the high-end market is accelerating
After talking about the "pessimistic" point, the next thing that needs to be focused on is the growth point that is "worth looking forward to": that is, what is the hot spot of smart projection in 2023?
According to the statistics of Lotu Technology, the market share of the ** segment above 6,000 yuan in 2023 will be 46%, compared to 2022**16 percentage points – an increase of more than 50%. 1LCD closed optical machine products have driven the price proportion of more than 2,000 yuan to increase, and the online market share has reached 14%, compared with 2022**03 percentage points, and sales increased by 29% year-on-year. In 2023, the market share of laser light source intelligent projection will reach 79%, a year-on-year increase of **46 percentage points, an increase of more than 130%. Medium and long focus laser products will usher in rapid development in 2023, with online sales soaring by 115% year-on-year. The tricolor has achieved a reversal of monochrome, and the proportion of online sales will reach 63 in 20233%, up 507 percentage points. The market share of 4K UHD reached 52%, year-on-year **36 percentage points, and the sales volume increased by 194% ......
It can be seen that whether it is laser, DLP, 1LCD or other dimensions, all the subdivisions that represent quality upgrades are "continuing to grow". This is enough to show that consumers not only have "no aesthetic fatigue" for smart projection; On the contrary, some are "not satisfied with the quality of the existing supply". —As long as the quality-price ratio can continue to be upgraded in the future, there is great hope for the stability and growth of the smart projection market.
If you only look at the ** line, Lotu Technology data shows that the sales volume of 1000-1999 yuan and 2000-2999 yuan ** segment is relatively stable; 3000-3999 yuan, 4000-5999 yuan** segment accounted for a contraction. The market share of the ** segment above 6,000 yuan is 46%, compared to 2022**16 percentage points.
Among them, the contraction of 3000-5999 is mainly affected by two factors. 1.The growth of more than 6,000 yuan has divided some of the middle and high-end customers; 2.In 2023, the price of products above and below 3,000 yuan, especially DLP products, will decline, so that the center of their consumption prices will move downward. On the one hand, it ensures the stability of demand in the range of 2000-2999 yuan, and on the other hand, it diverts the demand for 3000-5000 yuan.
In terms of overall data, after deducting low** and low-quality products below 1000 yuan, it can be evaluated that the sales volume of smart projections above 1,000 yuan in 2023 will decline by about 7%. And the market decline mainly occurs in the 3000-5999 yuan ** segment. This change, compared with the same audio-visual equipment TV products, should be a "better achievement", fully reflects the emerging category, a new species of "competitive vitality" and the ability to confront the weak macro industry. (In 2023, domestic color TV sales will drop by 8.)4%。）
Some people in the industry said, "Only smart projectors with more than 1,000 yuan can be 'called' products." It further pointed out that without the basic support of the first product, not only the product will not have a reputation for performance, nor will there be brand loyalty, nor will there be innovative technology content - the corresponding enterprise will not have a sustainable development strategy and a predictable future.
Especially considering the application characteristics of smart projection,It must be emphasized that there are two dimensions of the main demand range:First,The average price represents"Popular demand",In this regard, the market size will be stable in 2023 (the macro consumption economy is cold、Stability after the epidemic overdraft,It is a rare good result); The second is,Large screen immersion"Luxury experience"Demand,This aspect is mainly reflected in the three-color laser、4K、6000+The substantial growth of products with more than the price range。
In 2023, the smart projector market will have "good results" in the above two major market segments, which is enough to be proud of. As for the decline of the overall market and the increase in the proportion of less than 500 yuan, it is more caused by "staged, technical, and external" factors, and does not represent the fundamentals of the industry, let alone the future trend of industry development.
The supply-side "quality-price ratio" has been upgraded to become a support for the future
From the perspective of the mainstream popular market, a new change is brewing in the market supply structure in the second half of 2023: according to Lotu Technology data, the price of DLP and 3LCD products in the middle and high end will be significantly reduced in 2023.
DLP intelligent projection market,3000 yuan below the **segment consumption share of more than half,Of which1500-1999 yuan and 2000-2499 yuan**segment**54 and 63 percentage points (the price reduction was mainly completed in the second half of the year and landed in the fourth quarter.) This also pushed up the sharp recovery of the DLP and 1LCD market ratios in the fourth quarter).
In addition, Epson, the leader of 3LCD, launched a 3000 yuan price of intelligent laser projection in the third quarter, which is nearly 40% lower than its previous generation of products**; The average price of the online market that drove the annual 3LCD market dropped to 4,617 yuan, a decrease of more than 700 yuan - it also achieved the annual 3LCD technology accounted for 19%, a slight increase of 02 percentage points (Actually, the increment mainly comes from the end.)
In four or five months, that is, in the fourth quarter, the sales of 3LCD smart projection increased.
Seven, eighty percent).
It can be seen that in 2023, the market for models of more than 1,000 yuan, especially the products above and below the average price, will achieve the same and higher performance upgrades. The year-round process of quality improvement in the mainstream market continues. Better product supply、More beautiful 100-inch large screen,This is the future of intelligent projection"The greatest growth confidence。
1,000 yuan entry, 3000 yuan quality 100-inch large screen, only the display technology of intelligent projection, species category can be satisfied. This core competitive advantage will also determine that the smart projection consumer market is "far from the stock stage". With further technological improvement, the accumulation of consumer culture, and the recovery of the macro consumption pattern, it is believed that the intelligent projection industry will soon return to a high-quality growth pattern.