800 square kilometers: how much are we really missing in Avdeyevka?
As of January 18, 2024, many Russian troops on the front line in Donetsk have not yet become operational, so they can continue to adjust in their posts. Replace this exhausted victorious army with a new army and achieve greater results in the west.
For example, the massive armed assault regiment near Donetsk and many other units did not do so.
* The people seized the weak point of Avdeyevka and began one attack after another, and this time it was quite possible that they would open a buffer zone 40 * 20 km wide on this front, with major offensives on the Zaporozhye, southern Donetsk, ** Mut, Kreminna, as well as on the Kupyansk front.
The fighting on the Donetsk front will slow down over the next month and continue to do so for months to come.
The loss of Avdeyevka has left a huge gap in Ukraine's defense system. So, the Ukrainian army faces the question, where will the Russian army attack from, and how will the Ukrainian army rebuild its fortifications?
Recent reports say that the Ukrainian army has set up a temporary fortification in the Bertich area between Semenivka, Orlivka, Tonank and Severne, with about 4,000-6,000 people. This organization nominally has about a dozen units, but basically it is composed of a number of units with relatively large establishments, and the organizational structure is loose and the cohesion is not strong.
To the north of this front was the Derna River, which had a large number of cisterns. Although Tonnank and Severna defended well, there were few natural obstacles in the south, and those lines were concentrated in the south.
The Ukrainian army has also opened a temporary defensive position in the Derna Valley, stretching from Orlivka to Umansk and then to the Ya**Brodiivka region, in order to meet Russian attacks in the Tonank and Severne regions.
The Russians have a good chance of opening a gap in the south and then breaking the east-west defenses in the east of Umansk, which would force the Ukrainians to retreat along the railway line and the TO511 highway in the direction of the industrial zone to the north.
In the west, the Ukrainians attacked at least one of the plateaus on the west side of the Vovcha River and its large cistern, where there was a better defense. The Ukrainian army in the Pervomaisk and Netelov regions is also in danger of attacking from the northeast, from the flank of Russia.
Normally, the main (purple) defense of the Ukrainians was the largest, but the ** people destroyed this front in Avdeyevka. The new temporary fortifications were more vulnerable, they were built on highlands, rivers, reservoirs, settlements, as well as on railways, and their ability to resist attacks by drones and artillery was limited.
When the intensity of the war decreases, Russia's buffer zone will be built within two or three weeks. At this point, Russian units will occupy three areas: A, B and C.
There are doubts in Zone D, and the breakthrough of the ** army near Neversk will also pose a threat to this area, which will expose the city of Kra**-Horivka to a double blow from the north and from the north. This will force the Ukrainian army to withdraw from Kra** Horivka and occupy the E area.
In the coming month, these areas will become the biggest focus of this region, that is, the Ukrainian army will move to the Kurakhov region west of the Vovcha River and the Vovche region in the north, a distance of about 40 kilometers.
This means that the army is able to advance about 20 kilometers in depth and about 40 kilometers wide, which is 800 square kilometers.
This is only on the premise that the Ukrainian army can effectively defend, in fact, under the indiscriminate bombardment of the Russian Air Force, the retreating Ukrainian soldiers simply cannot gather for effective resistance.
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