As of February 18, 2024, many Russian units on the Donetsk front are not yet in service, and they can carry out normal internal rotations. Replace the exhausted victorious division with new forces and continue to attack westward, creating greater results.
For example, large armored assault fists stationed near Donetsk were not used, as were many other units.
The Russian army is taking advantage of the opportunity presented by the fall of Avdeyevka to launch a continuous offensive that could form a large buffer zone of 40*20 km, and other major offensives could take place on the Zaporizhzhia, Yuzhnodonetsk, **mut, Kremina and Kupyansk fronts.
The fighting on the Donetsk front is likely to slow down gradually for a month and remain slow for months afterward.
The fall of Avdeyevka has left a big hole in the main Ukrainian defense. Now the problem of the Ukrainian army has arisen, the Russian army will continue to attack the **, and where will the Ukrainian army reorganize its defensive line?
According to the latest reports, the Ukrainian army has established a temporary line of defense from Bertich through Semenivka, Orlivka, Tonank to Severne, with a total strength estimated at 4 00-6000 people. On paper, the group may have about a dozen troops, but they are mostly some of the larger ones, with a scattered chain of command and limited cohesion.
The northern part of the line of defense runs along the Derna Creek to Orlivka, where there are many reservoirs. There are far fewer natural barriers in the southern region, which are located in the south, despite the strong defenses of Tonank and Severna.
The Ukrainian army has also set up another temporary line of defense along the Derna Creek from Orlivka to Umansk and Ya**Brodiivka in case Russia breaks through near Tonank and Severne.
There is a high probability that the Russian army will achieve a breakthrough in the south, after which it may break through the east-west line east of Umansk, which will force the Ukrainian army to retreat to the fortified areas in the north along the railway and the TO511 road.
In the west, the Ukrainian army has at least retreated to the heights west of the Vovcha River and along its large reservoirs, which are much more defensive. The defenses of the Ukrainian army in Pervomaisk and Netelov will also be threatened by flank attacks from the northeast, Russian troops.
In general, the main line of defense of the Ukrainian army (purple) was the strongest, but it was broken by the Russian army in Avdeyevka. The new temporary line of defense is much weaker, based on high ground, river reservoirs, settlements and railway embankments, with limited defense against drones and artillery fire.
The establishment of a buffer zone for the Russian army may be completed in two to three weeks, when the intensity of the fighting may decrease. At this stage, Russian troops will occupy areas A, B and C.
Zone D is in doubt, and the breakthrough of the Russian army around Neversk could also threaten the area, which will put the fortified district of the city of Kra** Horivka in a dangerous situation, caught between the north and the south. This may prompt the Ukrainian army to be forced to withdraw from Kra** Horivka, which will eventually lead to the Russian army taking control of the E area.
These areas will be the most noteworthy of this battlefield in the coming month, which means that the Ukrainian army will retreat to the heights west of the Vovcha River, a distance of about 40 kilometers between Kurakhov in the south and Vovche in the north.
That is, the depth at which the Russian army can advance is about 20 kilometers and the width is about 40 kilometers, that is, about 800 square kilometers.
This is the size of the gap under the condition that the Ukrainian army can still organize an effective defense, in fact, under the bombardment of the Russian Aerospace Forces and artillery fire, it is difficult for the retreating Ukrainian army to assemble and organize an effective resistance.
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