Foreword:Since January, the southwest steel market is still not out of the consolidation pattern, although the macro policy continues to release good, but under the background of weak reality, steel prices up to break through the difficulty, with the pace of the Spring Festival gradually, the pre-holiday market maneuverable space is limited, how the market will be interpreted after the holiday, the following analysis of the southwest steel market trend after the year.
First, the environment of the steel market in the southwest region before the holiday
**Not high, not low, difficult to operate
Looking at the second half of the year, taking the Chengdu market as an example, the current No. 5 angle steel ** is 4230 yuan, down 50 yuan from the peak of 4280, and up 190 yuan from the valley of 4040; Looking at the whole year, the current ** is 470 yuan lower than the peak of 4700, and 250 yuan higher than the valley of 3980. From the end of October, the southwest section of the steel market has experienced a wave of obvious, the current level is not high or low, and the business maneuver space is limited, which is not conducive to winter storage, which is one of the reasons why the enthusiasm of the business is not high.
Upstream** is in a state of shrinkage
1, Tangshan billet rolling mill by environmental restrictions, most of the billet mill shutdown, immediately Spring Festival, steel mill production enthusiasm is not high, digestion of inventory, Tangshan Zhengfeng Iron and Steel *** for a class A production enterprises, recently released its Spring Festival holiday before and after the rolling line production arrangements, four steel rolling line maintenance plan in different periods.
2. Long-process steel mills mostly have maintenance and production reduction operations. It is reported that 2 of the 5 section steel production lines in Jinnan, Shanxi Province have been stopped; 1-2 steel production lines in Jinxi were stopped; In addition, due to the lack of profits, local steel mills such as Kunshan Iron and Steel have also reduced production, and the upstream ** is in a state of shrinkage before the holiday.
There is a divergence in the market mentality
At present, there are differences in market mentality, different operations, some businesses after long-term losses, do not have much confidence in next year, continue to operate with low inventory and light warehouses, and some of them may gradually withdraw from the market because of the financial situation; Some businesses believe that the level of raw materials is high, the policy is good, and the level of steel will move up next year, and there will be winter storage operations, but the amount is not too large; Due to the decrease in demand, the inventory of some ** merchants has gradually risen, and they are forced to store in winter. In short, the inventory of southwest steel gradually increased before the holiday, but the volume was still within the controllable range.
Second, in the past 5 years, the trend of southwest steel before and after the Spring Festival
Taking Chengdu as an example, in the past five years, in addition to the impact of the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the post-holiday ** slightly lowered, and the rest of the years after the festival ** have different degrees of ** annual policies continue to stimulate force, steel prices are off to a good start, 23 years with the opening of the epidemic, the market is expected to improve, steel prices rose slightly again. Looking at 24 years, the southwest market before the holiday was in a state of "weak demand, high cost and low inventory", and the spot inventory was low, which means that the goods are in the hands of steel mills, and steel mills have the right to speak. There is support at the bottom of the high steel price of raw materials, and steel mills are looking forward to rising prices, hoping to restore profitability through price increases. Macro policy is good throughout the 23 years, 24 years of the market on the policy still has good expectations, not surprisingly, 24 years of domestic steel ** to welcome the "good start" probability is very large, but considering the lag in the southwest region, the increase or narrower than the construction of board and other varieties. (Lange Steel, Wang Xiaoxue).