Introduction: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 772 steel products in December 202380,000 tons, a decrease of 27 from the previous month70,000 tons, down 35%；From January to December, a total of 9026 steel products were exported40,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 362%。In December, China imported 66 steel products50,000 tons, an increase of 5 from the previous month10,000 tons, an increase of 83%；From January to December, a total of 764 steel products were imported50,000 tons, down 276%。Looking back on the seamless pipe market in 2023, affected by factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy crisis, and the tightening of monetary policies in economies at home and abroad, the risk of global economic recession has gradually increased, as well as the weakness of the domestic real estate industry, and even the demand for real estate has fallen to a low point. Under the influence of the high level of raw materials, the profit level of the pipe factory has shown an obvious downward trend, and the overall domestic demand has not changed significantly, but the overseas demand has shown a significant increase in the trend, strengthening the domestic seamless pipe to foreign mobility, the annual seamless pipe export volume in 2023 will exceed 5.6 million tons, and the export volume in December is still growing, showing that the end of the year is sufficient, so how to interpret the import and export situation of seamless pipe in 2024? This paper will briefly analyze the import and export situation of seamless pipes in China.
1. China's seamless pipe export volume increased by 5% month-on-month88%
The latest customs statistics show that in December, China exported 45 seamless pipes720,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 588%, a year-on-year increase of 079%；From January to December, China exported a total of 566 seamless pipes450,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1558%。In December, China imported seamless pipes 0800,000 tons, down 1011%, down 2661%；From January to December, China imported a total of 10 seamless pipes630,000 tons, down 10 percent year-on-year67%。
Figure 1 Seamless pipe export volume from 2022 to 2023.
In terms of varieties, non-cold-drawn or cold-rolled iron or ordinary steel seamless circular section pipes are not listed in the seamless pipes; Seamless casing and conduit for drilling oil and gas made of iron and steel with a yield strength greater than or equal to 552 MPa but less than 758 MPa; Other Steel Oil & Gas Pipeline Pipe, 2159mm Outer Diameter 4064mm；Seamless casings and conduits for drilling oil and gas made of other steel with a yield strength of less than 552 MPa; Other Steel Oil & Gas Pipeline Pipes, 1143mm outer diameter 2159mm is the main export varieties in December, which are 7470,000 tons, 6380,000 tons, 5960,000 tons, 4960,000 tons, 3730,000 tons. This month, except for the non-listed non-cold-drawn or cold-rolled iron or ordinary steel seamless circular section pipe exports, the export volume of the other four items increased significantly. In terms of countries, the main flow countries of China's seamless pipes in December were the United Arab Emirates, India, Oman, Thailand and Kuwait, accounting for the proportion of total exports this month. 33%, of which in addition to the decrease in exports to the United Arab Emirates, exports to the other four countries have increased, and the increase is significant, and the total exports of the above countries accounted for 34 of the total exports of the month98%, an increase of 1068%。It can be seen that although the global economy is not in a completely healthy state, but the export volume remains high, this month's seamless pipe export country flow has become obvious, this month's domestic seamless pipe flow to Asian countries is obvious, in 2024 the country flow or more obvious, in addition to the Middle East countries, Asia will also become the main base of China's seamless pipe exports.
Figure 2 Proportion of the top five countries in seamless pipe exports in 2023.
2. Brief analysis of external influencing factors
From the perspective of steel import and export, affected by factors such as the widening of steel price differences at home and abroad, the reduction of sea freight, and the low base in the same period of 2022, according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, from January to December 2023, China exported a total of 9120 steel products10,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 352%；China has imported a total of 764 steel products50,000 tons, down 276%。This year's steel exports are obviously preferred year-on-year, and the depreciation of the RMB has laid the foundation for hot exports. In 2023, the annual steel export has exceeded 90 million tons, and it has delivered a perfect answer this year. In fact, the depreciation of the RMB this year began with the Federal Reserve starting the five-year interest rate hike cycle, and the policy profits of developed economies such as the United States and Europe have not yet reached their peak, and the interest rate hike cycle may continue to lengthen.
Figure 3: China's steel export trend from December 2022 to December 2023.
Figure 4 China's steel import trend from December 2022 to December 2023.
3. In 2024, the export volume of seamless pipes may break through again
On the macro front, the Export-Import Bank of China recently released data showing that as of the end of 2023, the balance of foreign trade industry loans of the Export-Import Bank was 324 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1306%, the new loans are mainly invested in manufacturing, wholesale and retail, transportation, warehousing and postal services. Moreover, the press office recently held a press conference, and the relevant person in charge of the General Administration of Customs introduced the total import and export value of China's goods in 2023 to 4176 trillion yuan, better than expected, achieved the goal of promoting stability and improving quality. Customs statistics show that in 2023, China's imports and exports to the countries of the "Belt and Road" will be 1947 trillion yuan, an increase of 28%, accounting for 466%, an increase of 12 percentage points. Imports and exports to Latin America and Africa respectively 344 trillion yuan and 198 trillion yuan, an increase of 68% and 71%。In the fourth quarter, imports and exports to the European Union and the United States picked up, and the annual imports and exports were 551 trillion yuan, 467 trillion yuan, accounting for 132% and 112%。Moreover, the economic work conference pointed out that the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies should be strengthened, and a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy should be continued. Under the situation of macro policy expectations, steady increase in infrastructure investment, and the maintenance of a relatively high level, the increase in domestic seamless pipe demand in 2024 may not change much, but in the case of obvious competitive advantages in seamless pipe exports, foreign demand for seamless pipes may show a significant growth trend, and there are good expectations for China's seamless pipe exports in 2024. (Lange Steel).