Today, a friend in the circle just released a data of CSI Gold (excluding other "dark lines"), so I will post it for you to see.
Judging from the total amount on this table, in 2023, the total amount of refinancing securities transactions through CSI will reach 26 trillion!
The absolute value looks very scary, and at first glance, this is to suck the investors dry!
But in fact, in the whole of last year, the total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was 2122 trillion!
In other words, the total proportion of this data is only 123%!
In 2022 (not counting 2023), the total amount of financial transactions, the total data disclosed by CSI Financial is 164 trillion, accounting for the turnover of A-shares (223.).88 trillion) of 73%!
So, 26 trillion accounts for about 15 percent of the total transaction volume of the two financial institutions85%, this proportion is not much different from the proportion of securities lending volume, there is no one-sided situation, and financing transactions are still dominant in the market.
On the other hand, if you look at the trading quota of refinancing securities in each month of 2023, it is stable at around 200 billion, and the correlation between the rise and fall of the market is not as great as everyone rumored, and there is no so-called main decline in the market since August is caused by the sharp increase in the trading quota of refinancing bonds.
Whether it is the overall proportion or monthly fluctuations, it is enough to show that the market is overly worried about refinancing.
Of course, this does not mean that the policy of refinancing is good, and in terms of design, the buyer and seller are seriously unbalanced, especially the design that can be repaid in cash, which is indeed a hooligan. It is better to increase the bare space like Lao Mei, and at the same time, it also increases the risk of being shorted by the bare short. As long as there are obvious loopholes in the design system, it is inevitable that someone will use it to cause some accidents.
Overall, I'm neutral about refinancing, not that scary, but also not that reasonable. I also hope that these two posts can help everyone to look at this rationally.
It is often not the facts that scare you to death, but the fear itself.
All of you encourage you.
Author: Ming Da Ye Lao.