Affected by the continuous increase in consumer demand due to the holiday effect, the CPI in January was month-on-month for two consecutive months**. Affected by the high base of the Spring Festival staggered month in the same period last year, the year-on-year decline expanded. Affected by factors such as the fluctuation of international bulk commodities and the traditional off-season of production in some domestic industries, the national PPI decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, but the decline was narrowed.
On February 8, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China's CPI in January was -08%, the previous value was -03%, a year-on-year decline expanded; Month-on-month **03%, the previous value was 01%, an increase of 02 percentage points. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy**, was 03%, an increase comparable to the average of the same period in the past ten years; Year-on-year **04% to keep it mild**.
Meanwhile, China's PPI in January was -2 year-on-year5%, the previous value was -27%, the year-on-year decline narrowed; PPI -02%, the month-on-month decline narrowed.
In this regard, Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted:
OnecpiMonth-on-month for two consecutive months**On a month-on-month basis, the CPI is 03%, an increase of 02 percentage points. Among them, food *** 04%, an increase of 05 percentage points, affecting CPI** by about 008 percentage points. In food, affected by factors such as cold wave weather and the approach of the Spring Festival, shrimp and crabs, fresh vegetables, potatoes and fresh mushrooms are respectively5% and 13%, which affects the CPI** by about 012 percentage points; The market** was relatively sufficient, with eggs, edible oil, fresh fruit and pork** declining respectively. 5% and 02%。Non-food items** decreased by 0 from the previous month1% to **02%, affecting the CPI** of about 019 percentage points. Among non-food items, the demand for travel has increased, and air tickets and travel are **121% and 42%, the total impact of CPI** is about 010 percentage points; Affected by the return of migrant workers before the holiday and the increase in demand for services, domestic services, hairdressing and maternal and child care services are **respectively**6% and 15%；Affected by changes in international oil prices, domestic gasoline ** decreased by 10%。China's January CPI was 03%。Among them, the city **03%, rural **02%；Food***04%, non-food ***02%；Consumer Goods***02%, service ***04%。On a year-on-year basis, CPI fell by 08%, a decrease of 05 percentage points. The year-on-year decline widened mainly due to the fact that the Spring Festival of the previous year was located in January, coupled with the increase in consumer demand after the transition of epidemic prevention and control in the same period, resulting in a high base of comparison in the previous year. Among them, food ** decreased by 59%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 113 percentage points. Among the foods, pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits** decreased respectively. 7% and 91%, the total impact of CPI decreased by about 078 percentage points, accounting for more than ninety percent of the year-on-year decline in CPI, is the main factor driving the year-on-year decline in CPI. Non-food ***04%, affecting the CPI ** about 032 percentage points. Non-food, serving ***05%, of which domestic service and other domestic services**3 respectively5% and 24%, the increase has expanded; Tourism***18%, the increase has fallen; Airline tickets** dropped by 136%, the decline has widened. Industrial consumer goods** fell 04% to **01%, of which energy** decreased by 05% to **01%。
It is estimated that in January - 0In the 8% year-on-year change in CPI, the carryover effect is about -11 percentage point; The new impact of this year's ** change is about 03 percentage points.
IIppiThe month-on-month and year-on-year declines narrowed
On a month-on-month basis, the PPI fell by 02%, a decrease of 01 percentage point; Among them, the means of production ** decreased by 02%, the decline narrowed by 01 percentage point; The means of subsistence** decreased by 02%, the decline expanded by 01 percentage point; Affected by the fluctuations of commodities such as international markets and non-ferrous metals, the domestic oil and gas extraction industry fell by 08%, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry** decreased by 17%, the decline has narrowed; Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry***03%, of which zinc smelting and aluminum smelting are respectively6%。The demand for steel pre-holiday replenishment has increased, and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry has increased by 04%。The demand for heating in some areas increased, and the coal mining and washing industry rose slightly by 01%。The demand for industrial products such as chemical products and cement was weak, and the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products fell by 11%, non-metallic mineral products industry** decreased by 06%。Lithium-ion battery manufacturing, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing** declined respectively. 3%。
On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 25%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month2 percentage points. Among them, the means of production ** decreased by 30%, the decline narrowed by 03 percentage points. The means of subsistence** decreased by 11%, the decline narrowed by 01 percentage point; Among the major industries, coal mining and washing** decreased by 160%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing** decreased by 61%, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry** decreased by 44%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry ** decreased by 42%, and the manufacturing of computer communications and other electronic equipment** decreased by 30%, the decline rate of the above five industries was narrower than that of the previous month, and the total impact of PPI decreased by about 1 year-on-year47 percentage points, the pull-down effect on PPI decreased by 028 percentage points; The non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry declined respectively. 9%, the decline was larger than that of the previous month. Oil and gas extraction** decreased by 1 from the previous month6% to **34%。Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry***06%, an increase of 02 percentage points.
It is estimated that in January - 2In the 5% year-on-year change in PPI, the carryover effect is about -23 percentage points, the new impact of this year's ** change is about -02 percentage points.
China's January CPI fell 08%。Among them, the city fell by 08%, down 08%；Food ** down 59%, non-food ***04%；Consumer goods** decreased by 17%, service ***05%。In January - 0In the 8% year-on-year change in the CPI (Household Consumption ** Index), the carryover effect is about -11 percentage point; The new impact of this year's ** change is about 03 percentage points.
1. Month-on-month changes
In January, food, tobacco and alcohol **month-on-month**03%, affecting CPI** by about 009 percentage points. In food, the cold wave weather and the increase in consumer demand for the Spring Festival are approaching, and fresh vegetables ***38%, affecting CPI** about 008 percentage points. Aquatic products***26%, affecting CPI** about 005 percentage points. All localities actively increased people's livelihood commodities, and eggs fell by 15%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 001 percentage point; Fresh fruits** decreased by 05%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 001 percentage point; Livestock meat** decreased by 05%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 001 percentage point;
The other seven categories** rose by five month-on-month, one flat and one decreased. Among them, other supplies and services, daily necessities and services, education, culture and entertainment **respectively**0% and 07%, transportation and communications, health care**01%；Residential** flat; Clothing** down 03%。
2. Year-on-year changes
In January, food, tobacco and alcohol** fell by 3 year-on-year6%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 104 percentage points. Among food, affected by the high base of comparison in the same period of the previous year, fresh vegetables** decreased by 127%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 032 percentage points. Livestock meat** decreased by 116%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 039 percentage points, of which pork ** fell by 173%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 025 percentage points；Fresh fruit ** down 91%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 021 percentage points; Eggs** down 64%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 005 percentage points. Aquatic products** decreased by 34%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 007 percentage points.
The other seven categories** rose six times year-on-year and fell one down. Among them, other supplies and services, clothing**respectively**29% and 16%, education, culture and entertainment, health care **13%, daily necessities and services, housing **10% and 03%；Transportation Communications** decreased by 24%。
In January 2024, affected by the fluctuation of international bulk commodities, the ex-factory sales of industrial producers across the country decreased by 2 year-on-year5%, down 02%, the decline was 02 and 01 percentage point; Industrial producers' purchases** fell by 3 percent year-on-year4%, the decline narrowed by 04 percentage points, down 02%, the same decline as the previous month.
OneYoY change in industrial producers** in the month
Industrial producers leave the factory**The means of production ** decreased by 30%, a decrease of 03 percentage points, affecting the total level of industrial producers' factory ** fell by about 223 percentage points。Among them, the extractive industry** decreased by 60%, the raw material industry ** fell by 23%, and the processing industry ** decreased by 31%, the decline has narrowed. The means of subsistence** decreased by 11%, a decrease of 01 percentage point, affecting the total level of industrial producers' ex-factory ** fell by about 029 percentage points。Among them, food ** decreased by 10%, clothing***01%, general daily necessities** flat, consumer durables** down 23%。
In the purchase of industrial producers, building materials and non-metallic products decreased by 70%, fuel power** down 67%, agricultural and sideline products** decreased by 58%, chemical raw materials** decreased by 57%；ferrous metal materials** flat; Non-ferrous metal materials and wires***15%。
IIMonth-on-month change in industrial producers**
Among the industrial producers, the means of production fell by 02%, a decrease of 01 percentage point, affecting the total level of industrial producers' ex-factory ** fell by about 017 percentage points. Among them, the extractive industry ***02%, the raw material industry ** decreased by 02%, and the processing industry ** decreased by 03%。The means of subsistence** decreased by 02%, a decrease of 01 percentage point, affecting the total level of industrial producers' ex-factory ** fell by about 005 percentage points. Among them, food ** decreased by 01%, clothing ** down 02%, general daily necessities** flat, durable consumer goods** decreased 04%。
In the purchase of industrial producers, the category of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 10%, fuel power, chemical raw materials** all decreased by 08%, building materials and non-metallics** decreased by 01%；Ferrous metal materials ***08%, non-ferrous metal materials and wires***03%。
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