The real estate market has shown a trend of rapid growth in recent years, the pace of urbanization has accelerated, and the movement and expansion of the population have made housing an urgent demand.
However, with the slowdown in economic growth, high housing prices, declining purchasing power, and the impact of the epidemic, the ** supply in some places exceeds demand, and more and more people are selling houses, but fewer and fewer people are buying houses.
* In order to stabilize the market, some property market controls were relaxed, which was originally intended to stimulate demand, but it turned out to make people who sold houses more anxious, because they found that there were not many people in the market who were willing to take over.
Can the property market turn around in 2024? How should we deal with the current property market dilemma?
In order to understand the future trend of the property market, we must first analyze the current situation and trends of the property market.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2023, the sales area of commercial housing in the country decreased by 47%, sales decreased by 08%。Among them, the area of residential sales decreased by 51%, sales decreased by 12%。From the perspective of various regions, the sales area of commercial housing in the eastern region decreased by 62%, sales decreased by 29%；The area of commercial housing sales in the central region fell by 37% and sales increased by 29%；The sales area of commercial housing in the western region fell by 34% and sales increased by 54%；The area of commercial housing sales in Northeast China fell by 39% and sales increased by 18%。From these data, it can be seen that the property market as a whole is showing a downturn, especially in first-tier cities and some hot second-tier cities, housing prices have appeared, and the transaction volume has also decreased significantly.
So, what is the reason for the cooling of the property market? The main aspects are as follows:
Economic growth has slowed down, and residents' income growth has been sluggish
In 2023, China's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 61%, down 1 from 20221 percentage point. Affected by factors such as the epidemic, friction, and financial risks, China's economy is facing greater downward pressure.
The growth of residents' income has also slowed down, and from January to November 2023, the per capita disposable income of urban residents nationwide increased by 5% year-on-year2%, down 1 from 20225 percentage points; The per capita disposable income of rural residents increased by 6 percent year-on-year1%, down 1 from 20224 percentage points. Sluggish growth in household income has led to a weakening demand for housing purchases, especially for improvement and investment.
Housing prices are high, purchasing power is declining, and the burden of buying a house is increasing
Although house prices have appeared in some cities, they are still at a high level on a national average. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2023, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in the country, 15 cities will build new commercial housing **month-on-month**, and 55 cities will decline or remain flat; There are 14 cities with second-hand residential properties **month-on-month**, and 56 cities with a decline or flat.
From a year-on-year perspective, there are 46 cities with new commercial residential buildings **year-on-year**, and 24 cities have declined; There are 42 cities with second-hand housing **year-on-year**, and 28 cities with a decline. From these data, it can be seen that although housing prices have fallen, they are still higher than in previous years, especially in first-tier cities and some hot second-tier cities, where housing prices still exceed the affordability of residents.
According to the People's Bank of China, in November 2023, the national personal housing loan balance was 348 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 161%, the growth rate is 2% lower than that in 20229 percentage points. The proportion of personal housing loans to personal loans is 579%, an increase of 06 percentage points. From these data, it can be seen that the burden of buying a house is still heavy, and the level of debt of residents is high, which affects the willingness and ability to buy a house.
To sum up, the current situation and trend of the property market have shown a downturn, more and more people are selling houses, but they can't sell out, which is caused by many factors, not a phenomenon of one time and one place, but a long-term process.
Since the current situation and trend of the property market are not optimistic, will there be a turnaround in the property market in 2024? Are there any opportunities to seize? For this problem, we can start from the following aspects:
Policy adjustment and innovation
* As the main regulator of the property market, the impact of its policy orientation and strength on the property market is huge. In 2023, in order to stabilize the property market, a series of loose and stimulatory policies will be introduced, including reducing the down payment ratio, reducing mortgage interest rates, relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, increasing land**, and promoting the transformation of urban villages.
The purpose of these policies is to meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and boost market confidence and expectations.
It is expected that in 2024, ** will still adhere to this policy tone, according to the actual situation of different cities, carry out city-specific policies, one city, one policy, and precise policies, further optimize real estate policies, innovate policy means, and enhance the pertinence and effectiveness of policies.
Differentiation and opportunities in the market
The downturn in the property market is not across the board, but there is a clear regional and urban differentiation. On the one hand, first-tier cities and some hot second-tier cities, due to factors such as economic development, population agglomeration, and land scarcity, housing prices are still high, demand is still strong, and the market is still active. The property market in these cities is expected to continue to maintain stable growth under the stimulus of policies, and even appear to a certain extent.
On the other hand, in third- and fourth-tier cities and some weak second-tier cities, due to factors such as economic backwardness, population outflow, and land surplus, housing prices have appeared obviously, demand has shrunk significantly, and the market has fallen into a downturn. The property market in these cities needs to be guided by policies to carry out structural adjustments, speed up destocking, improve product quality, cultivate new demand points, and find new growth drivers.
Therefore, for investors and buyers, the differentiation of the property market also means the existence of opportunities, and it is necessary to choose the right city and project according to their own situation to grasp the turning point and opportunities of the property market.
Industrial upgrading and innovation.
As an important pillar industry of the national economy, the development level and quality of real estate directly affect the country's economic and social development and people's living standards. Under the current situation, the real estate industry is also facing the requirements and opportunities for transformation and upgrading and innovative development. On the one hand, the real estate industry should accelerate the transformation from extensive development based on scale expansion to intensive development based on quality and efficiency, improve the quality and service level of real estate products, meet the diversified and personalized needs of consumers, and create a better living environment.
On the other hand, the real estate industry should speed up the integration and innovation with science and technology, culture, tourism, pension, education, medical and other industries, open up new business areas and growth points, enhance the added value and social benefits of real estate, and make greater contributions to the country's economic transformation and social progress.
Write at the end
In short, the property market in 2024 is still facing many difficulties and challenges, but there are also many turnarounds and opportunities.
As long as we adhere to the positioning that the house is for living, not for speculation, adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking, and adhere to the policy of implementing policies according to the city, one city and one policy, and precise policy, we will be able to achieve the healthy and stable development of the property market and provide strong support for the country's economic and social development and people's happy life.