The good situation of comprehensive recovery in the first three quarters came to an abrupt end, and accidentally Wanda Movies exploded again. According to the latest performance forecast, from January to December 2023, the company will achieve a total net profit of 100 million to 1.2 billion, deducting non-net profit of 1 billion, taking into account the net profit of 11 million in the first three quarters1.5 billion, deducting non-net profit of 110.4 billion, indicating that the net profit in the fourth quarter was only -21.5 billion to 08.5 billion, deducting non-net profit -40.4 billion to 10.4 billion, and once again encountered a street-level performance.
Why did the fourth quarter perform so poorly? The explanation given by the company is that the performance of the National Day file in the fourth quarter was less than expected, and the box office was under pressure. In this regard, I specifically checked the box office situation of the National Day stallsIn 2023, the box office of the National Day movie will reach 272.3 billion yuan, an increase of only 2 percent over the 2019 National Day file56%。Specifically, only four films have grossed more than 100 million yuan, namely "Solid as a Rock" (65.7 billion yuan), "Predecessor 4: Early Marriage" (51.9 billion yuan), "Volunteer Army: Heroes Attack" (36.7 billion yuan) and the Moscow Action (26.2 billion yuan), there is indeed no blockbuster work, and this explanation is basically reasonable. Cinemas are a business of buying shovels, and the situation that upstream films are not effective is really a crime of non-war.
At the same time, the company gave another set of data - in 2023, with the joint efforts of all parties in the industry, the film industry will continue to improve, regain market vitality, and the national film box office will be 5491.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 834%, recovering to 85 in 20196%；The number of moviegoers was 129.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 825%, recovering to 75 in 20192%。The company's domestic theaters achieved a box office of 75600 million yuan (excluding service fees), recovering to 96 in 20194%；The number of moviegoers is 18.6 billion, recovering to 92 in 20197%, with a cumulative market share of 167%, of which the market share of directly operated theaters increased by two percentage points compared with 2019, and the output of a single screen was 185 times.
In other words, despite the poor results in the fourth quarter, the company's full-year performance is still ahead of the industry average, further expanding its market share and approaching the results of 2019. In view of the fact that in 2019, the company's net profit after deducting the impact of asset impairment provision was 114.1 billion yuan, which means that Wanda Film's final performance in 2023 will most likely not step on the lower edge of the preview value, and it is more likely to take about 1.1 billion, and the corresponding PE is about 24 times.
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