In the Western Pacific, although the direction of the Taiwan Strait has always been the focus of China's attention, it may be difficult for China to concentrate all its forces in one direction, for the simple reason that some external forces do not intend to allow China to focus on the Taiwan Strait, and they are trying to create some trouble around China to distract China's attention. As we enter 2024, a closer look at the situation around China shows that neither the East China Sea nor the South China Sea will be peaceful, and Japan and the Philippines should launch provocations against China in both directions.
First of all, the East China Sea, in fact, since the second half of last year, the situation in the waters near the Diaoyu Islands has become increasingly tense, and the confrontation between the Chinese Coast Guard, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, and the Japan Coast Guard has intensified. In order to gradually consolidate China's control over the waters around the Diaoyu Islands and eliminate Japan's nuisance to China's territorial waters, Chinese coast guard ships have warned Japanese Self-Defense Force planes approaching the airspace around China's Diaoyu Islands since January this year, asking Japan to stay away from China's airspace. The China Coast Guard has been even more resolute in intercepting Japanese vessels that have intruded into the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands, which issued a warning last month, demanding that Japan immediately stop all illegal activities in the waters off the Diaoyu Islands and ensure that similar incidents do not occur again. But judging by Japan's reaction, they did not stop breaking into the waters of the Diaoyu Islands. And according to foreign media reports, Japan** said through diplomatic channels that China's warning was "absolutely unacceptable", but did not disclose this information. It can be seen from this that the Japanese side may not be able to stop in the East China Sea this year, and the situation in the Diaoyu Islands is worrying.
Second, the situation in the South China Sea is not much better, and in this direction, the Philippines is still the main force in provoking China. Since Marcos Marcos took office in the Philippines, China-Philippines relations have gradually deteriorated, and tensions in the South China Sea have re-emerged, and the root cause is that the Philippines has constantly accused China of law enforcement in the South China Sea and repeatedly attacked China's territorial waters. In particular, on the critical issue of Ren'ai Jiao, the Marcos administration is still trying to send supplies to the wrecked ship that is illegally "beached" on Ren'ai Jiao, repeatedly invading China's territorial waters, thus repeatedly triggering conflicts between China and the Philippines. It is worth noting that the Marcos administration has also strengthened cooperation between the Philippines and other countries in recent months, including advancing joint military exercises with the United States and Japan, upgrading defense cooperation with Canada and other countries, and signing agreements with Vietnam to expand Philippine-Vietnamese maritime cooperation. Obviously, the Marcos administration's South China Sea policy is still trying to win over many countries and seek to form a "united front to contain China."
At present, neither the situation in the East China Sea nor the South China Sea is particularly optimistic, and Japan and the Philippines are likely to continue to attack China in these two directions. On the surface, Japan and the Philippines are dealing with their own contradictions with China, but in fact, the underlying reason is that there are superpowers that need to contain China and provide all kinds of support behind it, so the Philippines and Japan will actively provoke China. To a certain extent, the Philippines and Japan are now just pawns of the big powers behind them, acting as the "vanguard" to contain China.
The Chinese side is certainly clear about this situation, so the Chinese side still maintains a very restrained attitude and insists on resolving the problem through dialogue as much as possible, which shows that the Chinese side is also very clear that there is no need to fall out with countries such as Japan and the Philippines, so as not to fall into the tricks behind the scenes. However, if Japan, the Philippines and other countries insist on going their own way, ignoring China's goodwill and insisting on touching China's red line on the territorial issue, then China's patience is probably limited, and it will not tolerate them endlessly. Whether in the East China Sea or the South China Sea, the Chinese coast guard and the People's Liberation Army have the ability to escalate countermeasures, and if the provocations of Japan and the Philippines lead to an escalation of the situation, then they will force China to escalate countermeasures.