China-Singapore Jingwei, February 18 -- A-shares are about to usher in the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon, can they get off to a good start? Let's take a look at the interpretation of the five major brokerages.
According to the data, from the first trading day after the Spring Festival in the last 10 years, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index have 6 times**, with a probability of 60%, and the Shenzhen Component Index has risen and fallen in half.
Chen Gang's team of Soochow Strategy believes that 2024 is the starting year of a new round of bull market in A-shares, and core assets are expected to usher in valuation repair and growth styles will rise. On the one hand, the current core assets have exceeded the decline based on fundamental understanding, and the odds trading of core assets is obviously attractive, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. On the other hand, changes in U.S. Treasury yields have a significant impact on the A-share style, and the decline in U.S. bond interest rates will be good for the growth style of A-shares, while the previously relatively dominant micro-cap and high-dividend styles will be relatively weak.
Ping An** research report pointed out that from 2010 to 2023, the cash rate of A-share spring restlessness ** was higher (only absent in 2022), but the upward elasticity of the index was quite different, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose between 5% and 33%. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2024, the current A** market has been adjusted to the bottom, and the easing of macro-control policies is expected to support the repair of fundamentals and sentiment, while 2023** suggests that the investment logic of the current equity market will gradually change to bottom-up, and structural opportunities are increasing.
According to the research report of Debang**, the trend of the five major indexes from 2010 to 2023 is basically the same, with varying degrees of increase before and after the Spring Festival, and showing the law of the cycle of downturn and strong period. Since 2010, A-shares have performed better after the Spring Festival, and the ChiNext index has performed outstandingly. From the perspective of the average annual cycle rise and fall, the average increase in the fourth week after the Spring Festival is the largest.
According to the research report of the National Union, the market is still at the bottom of the range, and indicators such as sentiment and risk premium are at the extreme level, and the over-falling ** is expected to continue. In addition, the short-term liquidity shock is nearing its end. Since August 2023, the financing balance has begun to diverge from the market trend, but in the past two weeks, the financing balance has declined rapidly, the trend has converged again, and the risk of negative liquidity feedback has weakened.
Everbright ** research report believes that the risk appetite of A-shares may tend to be friendly after the holiday, and bank stocks are still expected to continue before the holiday. On the one hand, consumption warmed significantly during the Spring Festival, indicating that there is potential to enhance the vitality of microeconomic entities. On the other hand, as the "Two Sessions" approaches, the market is looking forward to the further introduction of the "steady growth" policy, and the bank's own fundamentals have good support, and it is expected that it will still record a good performance after the holiday. (Zhongxin Jingwei app).
The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. )
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