During the Spring Festival holiday, these major events happened in the European and American markets

Mondo Social Updated on 2024-02-18

China-Singapore Jingwei, February 18 Comprehensive report, during the Spring Festival holiday (February 10-17), major stock indexes in Europe and the United States diverged, long-term interest rates generally rose, and other commodities rose and fell.

U.S. stocks ended a five-week winning streak.

In terms of U.S. stocks, hot data weighed on expectations of interest rate cuts, and U.S. stocks ended a five-week trend. During the Spring Festival holiday, the Dow fell 011%, the Nasdaq fell 134%, and the S&P 500 fell 042%。

Specifically, at 05:00 Beijing time on February 17, the Dow fell 037% at 38627At 99 points, the S&P 500 fell 048% to 500557 points, the Nasdaq fell 082% at 15,77565 points. Previously, in the early morning of the 16th, Beijing time, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and the S&P 500 index** hit a record high after February 9, closing at 502973 points.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that PPI increased by 09%, the slowdown was less than expected, and the month-on-month growth rate accelerated beyond expectations to 03%, and the core PPI increased by 2% year-on-year and 05%, the acceleration of growth exceeded analysts' expectations. Reuters reported that the PPI was stronger than expected, dampening hopes that the Fed was about to cut interest rates. The two Feds set the tone for caution. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needs more evidence that inflationary pressures are declining, but is open to cutting rates sometime in the coming months. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that while significant progress has been made, "more work is done" to ensure price stability.

Major European stock indexes rose. The Financial Times 100 average index closed at 771171 points, up 184%;The CAC 40 index in Paris, France, closed at 776818 points, holiday increase 158%;Germany's Frankfurt**DAX index closed at 17117 at 16**44 points, a holiday increase of 113%。

Long-term bond yields in major economies have generally risen.

During the Lunar New Year holiday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 430%, the yield on 10-year UK government bonds rose to 413%, the yield on French 10-year bonds rose to 288%, the yield on German 10-year government bonds** to 238%。

In addition, the U.S. bond holdings of China and Japan increased for two consecutive months. On Thursday, February 15, Eastern time, the U.S. Treasury Department released the December 2023 International Capital Flows Report, showing that in December 2023, Japan held 1$1,382 trillion, the highest total holdings since August 2022; So far, Japan's holdings of U.S. bonds have increased for the sixth month in three consecutive months and in the last seven months.

According to the above report, Chinese mainland held US$816.3 billion of US bonds in December 2023, increasing for two consecutive months after seven consecutive months of declining US bond holdings.

International oil prices soared.

The New York Mercantile Exchange for March delivery of light*** to 79 per barrel$19, a holiday gain of 306%;London Brent *** for April delivery to $83 per barrel$47, an increase of 156%。

For the continuation of international oil prices on the 16th, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price** Group in the United States, said that the key to the day was inflation data and concerns about geopolitical risks.

FX News** Vladimir Zernov, a market analyst at FXempire, said that as traders focused on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, geopolitical risk premiums increased, which made oil prices**.

Yemen's Houthi spokesman Yahya Sareya issued a statement on the 17th, saying that the group fired ** missiles at the British oil tanker "Pollux" in the Red Sea. The tanker that was attacked was a Panamanian-flagged British tanker loaded with ** destined for India. The Houthis claimed to have struck them "accurately and directly" using multiple missiles.

In terms of domestic oil prices, at 24 o'clock on February 19, the refined oil price adjustment window will be opened again. According to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, on the day of the price adjustment, the domestic gasoline and diesel price adjustment is expected to usher in the first stranding in 2024 due to the range of less than 50 yuan tons. Liu Bingjuan, an analyst of refined oil products at Longzhong Information, said that this round of price adjustment cycle coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, and international oil prices showed a trend during the Spring Festival, as of February 16, Brent *** was 83$47 barrel, compared to the pre-Chinese New Year **225%, which greatly narrows the price adjustment range of refined oil in this cycle. It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustment is relatively high, and the next round of refined oil retail price adjustment window will be opened at 24 o'clock on March 4, 2024.

*Fall. The most actively traded April futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at 2024 an ounce on the 16th$1, during the Spring Festival holiday**072%;The ***16th of March delivery closed at 23 per ounce$475, during the Spring Festival holiday**390%。

Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, noted: "The slight adjustment in the previous rate cut expectations has led to a moderate pullback, and investors are now struggling to defend the key psychological level of $2,000. However, given the resilience of the US dollar, it is likely that any will remain constrained. In the short term, this trend is unlikely to be sustainable. ”

Jigar Pandit, vice president and head of Commodities and Commodities at BNP Paribas' currency group at Sharekhan, said the market may be overly aggressive at times before the first rate cut is implemented, and in the process, rate cut expectations will rise to a level that makes *** vulnerable to adjustment.

The U.S. dollar index fell for three consecutive days.

In terms of foreign exchange, in terms of the dollar index, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, is **0 on the 16th02%, closing at 104 at the end of the foreign exchange market277, a slight increase of 016%。

Specifically, the U.S. dollar index rose for two consecutive days on the 12th and 13th, and then fell for three consecutive days.

In response, Thierry Albert Wizman, global FX and interest rate strategist at Macquarie, said the dollar's pullback could be short-lived. As long as the U.S. economy continues to outperform the rest of the world, there is no reason for dollar momentum to reverse anytime soon. The US dollar will continue to be strong and may strengthen further.

Eugene Epstein, head of structured products for North America at Moneycorp, a cross-border payments company, said the dollar has strengthened so far this year. It is expected that the US dollar will consolidate or climb slowly in the future.

In addition, during the Chinese New Year holiday, the euro exchange rate remained largely unchanged, and the pound depreciated slightly against the US dollar. (Zhongxin Jingwei app).

The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. )

For more exciting content, please pay attention to the official WeChat of JWVIEW***

Related Pages