This is an extremely simple thinking and sharing, because it is only based on common sense, only based on human nature, and because I am just an ordinary ordinary people.
Big A seems to be on the bar with the point of 3000, which made my thoughts fly wildly for a while: from the perspective of divination, does this number 3000 indicate something? Could it be that the year 3000 A.D. is another new era for mankind? What will happen that year......
Since the end of August last year, ** has been frantically testing on the verge of falling below 3,000 points, stimulating the fragile nerves of countless investors.
By the end of November, it had finally completely fallen below 3,000 points - completely breaking through the psychological defenses of many investors.
There is a lot of empty singing in the market - 2850 is the bottom....2600 is the bottom....2500 I'll come back ......
Until the beginning of this year's wave of rapid decline, the Shanghai Composite Index came to the lowest point this year: 2635 - at this time, everyone has begun to make up jokes: how will it perform in 2024? Answer: 2024 points.
If not, Tailai - of course, I dare not say that 2635 is the "negative pole" of this year's market.
Beginning on February 6, a wave of "8 consecutive yangs", the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,000 points again! Although on February 26, the market correction fell below 3,000 points, but on the 27th** stood firmly above 3,000 points again.
Some people regret and hesitate: if you set foot in the air, can the market "reverse and pick up people"? Do you want to rush to the brim now?
Some people are annoyed and complain: the index is 3000 points, ** is still at 2700! **It's back, why didn't the money come back!
Some people are sober in the world: I'd rather miss **, and resolutely don't be a pick-up man!
Some people are full of expectations: when will there be a 1,000-share limit?
And the institutions are rushing and shouting: the cow is back quickly!
Who would have thought: On the 28th, the volume fell sharply - the transaction volume in the two cities was 136 trillion! The Shanghai Composite Index plummeted, approaching 2950 points!
Crowd: ......Every time there is a change, there will inevitably be a commotion, and the market is filled with an anxious atmosphere.
The recent 8 consecutive yangs, adjustments, and sharp declines in volume have affected how many people's hearts?
At the end of the day, everyone is anxious: Is it already empty? Is it another trick to tempt more? What's next? How can I adjust it? Should it be heavy or even full?
About stepping into the air, I happened to see a paragraph to share with you:
A short-priced shareholder asked the master: What should I do if I am very anxious?
Master: Fang Shou Yi Bo!
Shareholders are enlightened! On February 28th, in the morning, shareholders put half an hour of "Love to Fight to Win" - let it go! Full Basket!
*, Limit Down. Shareholder: Master, didn't you say to give it a go......
Master: I'm talking about a defensive wave.
Some people say: **, stepping on the air is more uncomfortable than trapping.
At first glance, this is difficult to understand - after all, the most that is short is not to make money, but there will be no losses, and the hedging is a floating loss of principal.
In fact, it's a psychological problem.
It is because of personal subjective judgment, and it is difficult to find an objective factor to excuse oneself; At the same time, because he had no chips in his hand, he had no expectations and sustenance in his heart, so he could only watch others eat meat and drink soup - red eyes and jealousy.
As for the trapping, there will always be a glimmer of hope in everyone's hearts, hoping that one day they can untie the trap and even make a profit; In addition, we often feel comfortable attributing it to a multitude of objective factors – market, economic, policy, institutional ......In short, not their own.
When 8 consecutive days, how many people's hearts are full of anxiety, and they feel like they have been thrown off by ** - I haven't gotten in the car yet! Can you pick me up in the reverse?
Just a few months ago, that is, these people's **2800 is not the bottom, 2600 is not the bottom, so they are empty, standing on the shore and pointing the country, with a wise and martial posture - to a certain extent, they are right: the blunt knife cutting flesh yin fall and the subsequent rapid sharp fall **, all prove that they are right.
The 8 consecutive yangs that were caught off guard, and the 3,000 points they had not met for a long time made them finally make up their minds: it was time to enter the market!
What a 2,600-point cringe, 3,000-point punch!
Of course, we don't know if they often say that "others are greedy and I am afraid, and others are afraid of me and I am greedy".
This story has been played out a million times and will continue to do so in the future - because of human nature.
We can only say: the pessimists are right, and the optimists move forward.
I'm thinking, maybe people who go short are more likely to be full: because the anxiety of going short will magnify the shortcomings of human nature, which in turn leads to the inability to rationally stick to the ** management plan.
Whether it is a short shot, or an impulsive, gambler-style full position, it is a reflection of the problem of management control.
Behind the management is your sense of risk control - for us ordinary people, the core of risk control is management.
We must admit that everyone's capital is different, the benefits are different, the goals are different, the abilities are different, the experiences are different, the pressures are different, and even the personal personality is different. Therefore, everyone's best management and risk control methods cannot be exactly the same.
However, ours must be in a state of attacking and retreating.
That is, we must take into account all possible scenarios.
Specifically, if the ** rises, it can ensure that we have money to earn, and we have to earn a considerable amount.
If we must ensure that we can afford to lose, the size of the loss must be within the range we can bear.
Maybe you will be dismissive: such an ideal, who wouldn't want it? You thought it was easy?
Yes, it's not that easy.
But our own affordability can be calculated: how much money you have, how many income channels you have, what you're going to do lately, you should know best.
If at 2600 you believe that one day it will be 3000 again, and you make sure that at 2600, your losses are within what you can afford – what do you have to worry about?
In fact, the most difficult point of management is not in the plan, not in the method (there are so many tutorials on the Internet about control management, I will not expand it here), but in our mentality - we can't eat a penny of loss, trying to make all the money in the market.
**10,000 fans incentive plan**rises, and is reluctant to drop** - so that it is trapped. **Not good, dare not keep** - so that you step into the air.
and then chased the rise and fell, and was repeatedly rubbed by the market - and finally came to the conclusion: there are always Diao people who want to harm me!
Such a situation is not uncommon and happens again and again.
The reason is that I always want to stand on a high post, and I am afraid that I will suffer a penny loss. **, thinking about earning more; ** time, think don't lose.
*No, especially in the short term**. Why?
Because there are thousands of factors that affect the trend, we can't all know it, even if we know all of them, how do you grasp the weight of each factor?
It's like a multivariate equation with very few parameters, how do you solve it? Since it can't be solved, how can it be accurate?
Since it can't reach the top, it will inevitably not be able to reach the end. Because of this, after a big rise or fall, it is easy to fill a position and easy to short a position, which is a failing psychological attitude.
Mature investors will definitely be responsible for all their investment behaviors, and once they are responsible, they will be responsible to the end. Whether it rises or falls, whether it makes money or loses, it should be within the range of psychological expectations.
How to control the investment results within the "psychological expectation range"? It's up to your ** management to decide.
* Washing? Keep up the good work? Once again, the "blunt knife cuts the meat" style of yin fall, and then plummeted?
Big A has been bearish for many years, popularity has been sluggish, people have already talked about the change of color, confidence is not so easy to build - yes, you may not have noticed that the year of A shares may be negative for 3 consecutive years - if this year continues to be negative, this is something that has never happened, of course, there is no fuss when it happens.
No matter how you go, what to talk about "refinancing, IPO, quantification, neutral DMA, T+0...... in the future"It's better to build and stick to your own management plan.
We don't know what the market will do tomorrow, what we should do is: do a good job of various plans, do a good job of management.
A tendon bullish is the same as a tendon bearish.
**Homonymous.