I don't know if everyone has found out, recentlyCar companies that have gone bankrupt or are about to go out of business, it seems to have become more and more.
Weimar has just walked on the front foot not long ago, and two days ago, there was another ** revelation, saying that the Middle Eastern tyrant promised to give Gaohe at that timeHuge investment, not negotiated at all.
There are also many netizens**, saying that Gao He is notOnly the car can't be delivered, the employees' wages can't be paid, and they can't even afford to rent the exhibition hall.
Although they have refuted the rumors before, but today, Gaohe simply announced that it would stop work and stop production for 6 months, which is not good news.
In June last year, Yu Dazui said at the China Automobile Chongqing Forum that by 2030, the Chinese marketThe number of major players will be less than 5.
Lei Jun of Miche, Zhu Jiangming of Zero Run, and even Ding Lei of Gaohe actually said similar things.
AnywayIf you don't squeeze into the top few, you won't be able to live.
Is it reasonable, it seems reasonable, after all, even a company with such a hard background can't play anymore, which shows that the current market competition is really fierce.
It's unreasonable, it doesn't seem to be reasonable, after all, there are at least a dozen or twenty car companies that sell well in the market now. Picking out any one is a unique skill.
To say that most of them will disappear in a decade sounds like an exaggeration, right?
Today, Brother Neck will come to give everyone a plate, whether Yu Dazui and Rebus's point of view is reasonable.
If you want to talk about building a car, you may thinkAs long as there is enough money, the parts are bought by the best dealersIt is possible for anyone to do it.
But in the overall manufacturing industry, the automotive industryThe barrier to entry is actually quite highBecause it's not only super spending, it's also super time-consuming.
From the point of view of the process, if you want to move a car from the drawing to the mall, you will probably have to go throughProject establishment, R&D, verification, manufacturing and sales are several major stages, and each stage can be divided into many small items.
Pick any one of them, and behind it are hundreds of millions or even billions of investments.
For example, R&D, Volkswagen has previously said that it spent a total of $2.2 billion on the development of the eighth-generation Golf, except for the big headSalary of R&D personnelOutside, likeMold development, prototype making, experimental testingThese links are also quacky and expensive.
The wind tunnel knows, the one that both the mega and su7 have blown through,30,000 yuan an hour, and one test will cost the money of a car.
In the end, it may be to make itThe shape of the rearview mirrorsLook good.
It is required in the production and manufacturing processEquipment and material costsNot to mention, don't look at the car factory in the factory it looks very simple, you just stand in it and point at random, no matter what you point to, it must be ridiculously expensive.
The robotic arm on the production line, almost1 millionOne. The iron lump on the side is a die-casting cluster, a setHundreds of millions smaller.
Even these a** cars on the ground that transport parts...
They all have to be more than 100,000 or 200,000
So, if you want to build your own factory, it's basically thatBillions of bases, no caps, and probably have to build several more.
And that's just the part that can be solved with money, even if everything is done to make the prototype, it will have to be pulled to a different experimental siteVehicle matching, electrical architecture, power calibration, safety inspectionand so onHigh temperature, high cold, high altitudeHell-level endurance tests await.
If not, you have toHit back and redo.
Back and forth, most of the polishing of a good product costs oneSeveral yearstime, I really can't afford to spend it without a little family foundation.
So for a long time, the car has been oneThe Matthew EffectVery obvious industry, that isThe strong are getting stronger, and the weak are getting weaker.
Those car groups that sell particularly well can spend more money because they can have a stable capital incomeR&D of new products and expansion of new plantsAbove.
Every year or two, when a new model with new technology is created, more people will be attracted to buy their car, and so onSnowball.
Roll and roll, thoseSales are not very good, there is no money for research and development, and products are getting more and more backwardThe small car companies were rolled away.
If you're lucky, like Rolls-Royce, mini, these will still have use valueCo-opted by those big groups.
If you are unlucky, like Rover, Saab and the like, it will completely become the tears of the times.
As a result, the number of car brands around the world has been decreasing over the past few decades. Until now, there have been a few large groups, each with their own brands competing with each other.
The top 10 best-selling car brands or groups account for 75% of global sales.
It's really the same as what Yu Dazui saidThere are not a few top players left
At this point, some friends will say, eh, stop, this is the history of oil trucks in the past, and now the iteration speed of new energy has been much faster, and the technical threshold is not as high as beforeIt has to be counted as an electronic product!
Then let's take a look at what the laws in the field of electronics look like.
According to Counterpoint, in 2017, there were a total of 100 in the worldMore than 720 mobile phone brandsAs of last year, there were only 250 leftHiccups are close to 2/3.
What Gionee, Bird, Hammer, and even HTC, Nokia and other smash hit brands back then, now the grave grass is two meters high.
Why?The reason is the same as that of a carIt's just that it's too difficult to be a small brand.
Although it is very simple to build a mobile phone on the surface, everyone still jokes that who is not oneChain integrators, but this is really just a small fight, and it can't be mainstream at all.
Not to mention Apple and Huami ov these big factories, which will be spent every yearTens of billions of billions of R&D have been done, just the top ** merchants in the market, it is not to use it if you want to.
Legend has it that Mr. Lei was in order to win it back thenSamsung's best-in-class screen**, flew back and forth to South Korea several times, and only got those Samsung executives in a low voice.
Back then, the hammer complained that the Foxconn production line was not good, and the Foxconn was angry and left, behindYieldIt becomes even lower.
So becauseEconomies of scaleIn these large factories with large shipments, they can putCosts are kept at a very low levelAt the price of one or two thousand, you can see cost-effective monsters with 1T memory, high-performance chips, super fast charging and 100 million pixel cameras.
This makes those miscellaneous mobile phones how to play, and they are directly swept away.
As a result, there are only a few mainstream players left.
For every year of the past ten years, it has been able toLess than 20% of the market share, get about 80% of the market profit, and even jumped to 91% at the most terrifying time.
Last year, the top 5 mobile phone brands in the world in terms of sales together also accounted for nearly 7% of the market share.
The plot is the same as the car, isn't it?
In fact, there are many examples similar to the pattern of mobile phones, such as auto parts manufacturers, and now there are only those who can talkBosch, Continental, ValeoThese old cannons;
The power batteries that have been on fire in recent years are about to changeChengningde LG and BYDThe three-legged stand up.
Therefore, all the super-heavy asset industries that involve scientific research, production and manufacturing will most likely become in the endWinner takes allsituation.
So let's go back to the question at the beginning, will there be fewer and fewer domestic car companies?
I think so.
Because whether it is in the past, present or future, the criteria for determining whether a car company can survive are always changingAnd it's only going to get tougher.
In the past, it only depended on whether car companies could survivePolicy.
Just like back thenNew energy national subsidy,That is directly to supply the real gold ** to the car companies, and spend money to encourage everyone to make new energy vehicles.
As long as you want to do it, there is a subsidy to take.
From the beginning of 2010 to the present thirteen years, the new energy national subsidy has been supplemented in totalMore than 200 billionAt the peak, more than 40 billion yuan was made up in a year, which directly gave birth to a large number of subsidies that could be deceived only by PPT and car modelsFake car companies.
After 2018, the national subsidy began to decline and has now completely returned to zeroThose car companies also sent it by the way.
Now, it's good to see if the car companies are doing wellOwn family background.
After a few years of big waves, although Wei Xiaoli and these brands have survived, but because they areAutonomous driving, battery-electric driveThe speed at which these technologies are advancing is simply too fastNot only do you have to spend a lot of money on R&D and build more production lines every year to ensure the speed of delivery, but you also have to support the daily expenses of the sales network.
Like BYD, don't look at its net profit last yearTwo or three hundred billion, but its total revenue is estimated to haveFour or five hundred billion
Equivalent to every month, all of themTens of billions of dollars are spent on maintaining day-to-day operations and product development.
What is the concept, the ** of the Boeing 737 700 is 77 million US dollars, and BYD's cost can be bought in a monthDozens of larger units.
The volume is not so large, ideal, and the expenditure in a quarter is about 10 billion; Xiaopeng, billions smaller; The most ruthless is Weilai, which has to lose more than a billion every month.
Such an uncapped amount of spending is really not something that ordinary brands can withstand.
For example, Weimar, which has gone bankrupt, and Gaohe, who is "may" go bankrupt, are because they are burning money on the one handOn the other side, few people buy cars, and they have not been profitable for a long time, and finally burned the ** through.
So you can take a look at what other brands have only voice and no sales, and the next one that doesn't have it may be.
For example, at the peak of the United States, there were 1,500 car brands at the same time.
But in the end they are too similar because of the technical routeEither they are squeezed to death by GM and Ford with similarly technical, lower-grade products, or they become part of the giants.
The smash hit Plymouth Hunting Beast
Are there any survivors? Yes, very little.
Tesla, for example, not only survived rounds of eliminations, but also slowly became the world's largest new energy vehicle company and became a giant by itself.
To say why,Because of the technology on its hands, like autonomous driving, circuit integration, and materials technologyAt that time, several giants in the world did not have themYou can't roll it up with a similar product.
So Tesla not only survived, but even directly opened the prelude to the World New Energy Competition.
What does this mean? It shows that the only way to survive from the giants isGetting ahead of them gives them the upper hand, leaving them with no way out.
Looking back at China, although many new forces have caught up with the front of large groups, they are engaged in pure electric architecture and intelligent driving, and even brands like Ideal that focus on home tracks have leveraged the basic plate of more than 300,000 luxury models.
But as long as the giants see which market segment is valuable and have the corresponding technology in their hands, it will definitely only be a matter of time before they enter the market.
Using BYD as an example, BYD's sales target for 2024 is estimated to be around 3.6 million units, only 600,000 units more than last year.
There is a subtext behind such an unradical goal, and that is where it is headedWhen you stabilize the fundamentals, expand into those more niche markets.
Therefore, now BYD's bottom has differentiated into mid-to-high-end niche brands such as Yangwang and Equation Leopard, and the intelligent driving and intelligent cabin have also been arranged.
It's not just that, like Geely's Krypton Lynk & Co below, it has recently been like opening its mind, and has made a lot of cheap and high-quality models. SAIC's Zhiji immediately joined the battle with a large number of new cars.
At a time when these groups are slowly expanding their territory,If the new forces do not have differentiated technology in their hands, the result will inevitably be annexed or disappear.
So I feel that the previous big waves are just an appetizer, and the finals of new energy have just begun.
In 2023, two will be eliminated, and in 24 it may be 3 or even 4.
Looking at the car companies that are still alive now, who do you think will survive to the end?