Recently, Bangsheng New Energy announced that it plans to build a large-scale new energy materials production base in Kaiyang County, Guizhou ProvinceThe total investment of the project is as high as 6.3 billion yuan, and it is planned to produce 400,000 tons of iron phosphate and 150,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate per year.
This project is listed as a major project of new industrialization in Guizhou Province in 2023, which will not only promote the high-quality development of the local economy, but also provide strong support for the capacity expansion and market layout of Bangsheng New Energy.
The project will be carried out in two phases. The first phase covers an area of 450 acres, mainly building 200,000 tons of iron phosphate production capacity. General Manager Liu Bangqian revealed that the first phase of the project will gradually expand the production capacity to 200,000 tons after completing the construction of 50,000 tons of production capacity and putting it into production, and the ignition commissioning work is expected to be completed on March 30, 2024. The smooth progress of this stage will win more voice and market share for Bangsheng New Energy in the new energy materials market.
The second phase is planned to cover an area of 360 acres, and plans to build 200,000 tons of iron phosphate and 150,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate production capacity. Bangsheng New Energy said that the second phase of the project is planned to start field leveling work in 2026, laying a solid foundation for subsequent comprehensive construction.
The investment and construction of Bangsheng New Energy in Kaiyang, Guizhou Province is not only a recognition of the local resource advantages and market potential, but also an in-depth layout of the company's future development strategy. With the gradual advancement of the project and the gradual release of production capacity, Bangsheng New Energy is expected to achieve greater breakthroughs and development in the field of new energy materials.
According to the data, Guizhou Bangsheng New Energy was established in September 2021, and the major shareholder is Hunan Bangsheng New Energy Technology Group***hereinafter referred to as Bangsheng New Energy).
At present, Bangsheng New Energy has realized the transformation from a well-known real estate enterprise to a new energy, and has a number of production bases such as Changsha Ningxiang, Guiyang Kaiyang, Yunnan Qujing, etc., of which the Changsha Ningxiang project has a total investment of about 12 billion yuan, and will achieve an annual output of 300,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate after reaching production, and the project will be implemented in two phases, of which the first phase will invest 6 billion yuan and produce 150,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate annually.
As of March 30, 2023, the first production line of the No. 2 plant of the Ningxiang project has been fully opened and produced qualified products, and the second line is also being debugged. After the full completion and production, Ningxiang will become the largest lithium iron phosphate production base in the central region.
According to the preliminary research data of Gaogong Lithium Battery, in 2023, China's lithium iron phosphate materials will be shipped 1.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 48%; The market share is 6653%。On the one hand, there are first-class advantages, and on the other hand, fast charging technology has advanced rapidly, and range anxiety has been alleviated. In the future, the lithium iron phosphate route may continue to occupy a large market share.
It is estimated that by 2025, in the field of power batteries, with the release of iron-lithium models of global mainstream car companies, lithium iron phosphate batteries will account for 43% of the market share; In the field of energy storage, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to occupy 85% of the market share in the future.
According to the estimation of Founder**: it is conservatively estimated that the market demand for lithium iron phosphate materials will exceed 2 million tons in 2025. If we take into account the increase in the proportion of new energy power generation such as wind and solar, coupled with the demand for energy storage business, as well as other applications such as power tools, ships, and two-wheeled vehicles, the annual demand of the lithium iron phosphate material market may reach 10 million tons in 2030.
In 2023, the two major application fields of power and energy storage will continue to grow, while the proportion of lithium iron phosphate in the field of power batteries will continue to increase, and driven by factors such as the ban on ternary in energy storage batteries, the output of lithium iron phosphate will continue to grow, but the growth rate will decline significantly. After doubling in 2021 and 2022, the lithium iron phosphate industry will return to normal in 2023, and the growth rate will be lower than the previous estimate, and the annual target will be slightly discounted. At present, it is difficult for lithium iron phosphate to rise, and lithium iron phosphate may continue to operate under pressure in 2024.
In January 2024, China's lithium iron phosphate production was 990,000 tons, an increase of 4% and 53% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 53%. The month-on-month increase was mainly due to the front-loading of orders in February and the market's positive expectations for the new year.
In January 2024, the demand of the new energy industry is full of expectations due to the arrival of the new year. In the market, the purchase of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly due to the pre-order in February, which led to the recovery of lithium iron phosphate production. The change in production volume is shown in the figure below.
Figure 1: Changes in lithium iron phosphate production and **In January, lithium iron and lithium companies received more pre-orders in February and scheduled production in advance for fear of the impact of logistics and transportation, and the total amount of lithium iron phosphate in the market increased slightly.
On the demand side, compared with the weakness in December 2023, since the beginning of January, downstream demand orders have come one after another: the power side has recovered slightly, the energy storage end is flat, and the delivery volume of lithium iron phosphate materials has increased due to the front-loading of purchase orders in February. From leading enterprises to small and medium-sized enterprises, production starts have recovered, and output has increased month-on-month.
Figure 2: The output of lithium iron phosphate enterprises Q1 2024 is the traditional off-season of the industry, and the market is bearish and looking forward to recovery, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate is difficult to improve greatly. During the Spring Festival holiday in February, most enterprises reduced production and holidays, and the output of lithium iron phosphate fell sharply. China's lithium iron phosphate production is expected to be 730,000 tons, down 26% month-on-month and up 2% year-on-year.
Due to the differences in product characteristics, sales strategies and downstream customer groups of various enterprises, in February, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate production in different processes may be different.