Marcos Jr. appears in Vietnam, Duterte hoists the flag of independence, and the country falls apart?

Mondo International Updated on 2024-02-01

The political situation in the Philippines is volatile, and Marcos Jr., who is on a state visit to Vietnam, faces new challenges. The news that former Duterte announced that he would personally lead the independence movement in Mindanao has intensified the political scuffle.

At a news conference, Mr. Du again criticized Marcos Jr.'s constitutional amendment campaign and put forward the idea of leading the independence of Mindanao, one of the three major island groups in the Philippines, and its surrounding islands. He said that while the decision was not a sedition, the Mindanao region would rather be independent than remain in the Philippines because there would always be "another bad one."

Lao Du made it clear that the independence movement would be conducted peacefully, and planned to launch a signature or referendum campaign to enlist the support of the United Nations and achieve independence through political means. He also stressed that if he succeeds in becoming independent, he will work as a political adviser in the new country, but not in public office.

Judging from the statements of Lao Du and politicians in Mindanao, their goal is to win international support through an independent signature or referendum campaign, and finally achieve independence at the political level. However, it is worth noting that Lao Du's move is more to exert political pressure on Marcos Jr. than to truly pursue the goal of independence.

The news conference came two days after the Duterte family had organized a political rally in Davao City, Mindanao, demanding Marcos Jr.'s resignation and calling on the Philippine military and police to take action to "uphold the Constitution." This series of measures shows that Lao Du and his family are using various means to put pressure on Marcos Jr.

Lao Du led the family to take a series of actions, the main purpose of which was to prevent Marcos Jr.'s constitutional amendments. The incident dates back to last year, when Marcos Jr. and his cousin, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Martin Romualdez, teamed up to remove two of Du's allies from their positions as deputy speakers through cooperation within the House. Lawmakers who had previously supported Lao Du switched to Martin's Lacas Party or Marcos Jr.'s Federalist Party, leading to a change in the camp within the parliament.

After completing the internal preparations of the Parliament, Marcos Jr. had no choice but to try to use his numerical advantage in the Parliament to push for constitutional amendments. His goal was to change the Philippines from a "republic" to a "parliamentary republic" in order to achieve his family's long-standing goal of controlling the government.

Du's intentions are clear, and he has made it clear that if Marcos Jr. continues to push for constitutional amendments, he will lead the southern island of Mindanao and its surrounding islands to declare independence.

In addition, due to the "war on drugs" launched by Lao Du during his tenure, he faces an investigation by the International Criminal Court for *** crimes. There are reports that ICC investigators may have secretly entered the Philippines. Although Marcos Jr. previously said that he would not cooperate with the International Criminal Court's investigation of Lao Du, as the contradictions between the two sides intensify, Marcos Jr. may change his position at any time and directly point the finger at Lao Du himself. Lao Du is now raising the issue of Mindanao's independence, as if to add a "talisman" to himself.

The reason why Lao Du dared to take this action was to take into account the reality of the Philippines. The Mindanao region itself has a clear tendency towards independence due to various factors, such as ethnicity, religion and economic development. Armed rebellions by the local Moro have continued for decades, and militants continue to fight in the countryside to this day.

Some armed groups have even colluded with extremist forces to carry out terrorist attacks in Mindanao and other places. In addition to the Moro problem, the politically disadvantaged position of the Mindanao region has led to a tendency towards independence in the region. In short, since the establishment of the country, most of the Philippines** have come from Luzon, and Lao Du is only from Mindanao, which has led to the fact that the policies introduced by Manila are often more inclined to Luzon and other places, which has caused widespread dissatisfaction among the people and local political forces in Mindanao. Marcos Jr., also from Luzon, doesn't seem to be aware of this, and many of his decisions have sparked opposition from Mindanao political circles. Taking foreign policy as an example, as the main sphere of influence of the Duterte family, Mindanao has previously benefited from the dividends of friendly relations between China and the Philippines. Local politicians generally hope to maintain friendly relations with China, promote the construction of infrastructure projects such as the Mindanao Railway, and promote the development of the local economy.

Marcos Jr. is moving closer to the United States in full, competing with China for sovereignty over islands and reefs and taking steps to stop cooperating with China on projects such as the Mindanao Railroad. This behavior is very different from the views of Mindanao politicians. As the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea changes, the Mindanao region is increasingly concerned that current foreign policy could lead to the Philippines being drawn into war.

Last November, Pantaleon Alvarez, a councillor for North Davao 1, who was Speaker of the House of Representatives during Lao Du's administration, called for leading the Mindanao region to peaceful independence. However, Alvarez's personal political popularity was not enough to support this goal, and the addition of Lao Du made up for it.

Judging from Lao Du's statement, if it is really necessary to promote Mindanao's independence, Alvarez will be in charge of the specific work, and Lao Du himself will use his family prestige to appeal to Mindanao residents to support the independence movement. The Duterte family will also be responsible for rallying other local political forces to promote voting and other matters.

In addition, although both Lao Du and Alvarez advocated peaceful independence through political means, there was still a possibility that the independence movement would evolve into an internal armed conflict.

Don't forget that Philippine politics has always been characterized by a considerable degree of violence, and it is not uncommon for political families to have private armies. At a recent press conference, Mr. Du confirmed the existence of about 500 firearms registered under his name. If Manila decides to use the military and police to block the independence referendum, or even try to arrest Lao Du and others, this is likely to trigger a chain reaction.

Obviously, by putting Mindanao's independence on the agenda this time, Lao Du actually gave full play to his family's leadership position in the region, and created a complicated problem for Marcos Jr., who is visiting abroad. However, Marcos Jr. values the interests of his family more than he could, and it remains to be seen whether he will give in and officially renounce the constitutional amendment. After all, there are many uncertainties about the development of Mindanao's independence, and Marcos Jr. is not without a solution.

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