Last Wednesday, I have reminded everyone that **after cashing out, it should be properly controlled**, and swing operations should also consider selling high and reducing positions. Judging by this week's movements, it is clear that this decision was a wise move.
From a long-term perspective, the market in the second half of this year is mainly a normal adjustment to the index bull market in 2019-2021. The trend of the GEM index and the Shenzhen Component Index is particularly obvious, and it is expected to reach the low point of the bear market in 2018, which is the so-called "coming from **, going back**".
As the ChiNext and Shenzhen Component Index have risen to the high point of the 2015 bull market in the early stage, there is a risk of falling back to the low point of the bear market in 2018, and the Shanghai Composite Index may also continue to adjust due to this. In light of this, we need to prepare for the worst-case scenario of a possible market pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index even falling back to around 2,440 points in 2018.
A week ago, I warned everyone that the long lower shadows left by the weekly and monthly times of the Shanghai Composite Index are not absolutely good, and there may be a risk of confirmation of a pullback in the market. It is expected that after the second decline of the monthly K long lower shadow is confirmed, the market may have a ** in February, and the probability of closing the red moon K is very high.
Regardless of how the market changes, one thing must be clear: below 2900 points, from a medium-term perspective, the market does not have the conditions for deep managing. As long as you have low stacks, it's only a matter of time before you make money.
Specific to today's real market, although there are nearly 100 stocks in the two cities, and more than 2,940 companies have fallen by more than 3 points, we believe that the market sentiment is expected to usher in an inflection point. If the market falls again tomorrow, it will be a good opportunity to enter the market and buy low.
At the technical level, the 5-minute level of the Shanghai Composite Index is at a low level, while the minute level shows a top resonance phenomenon. The offensive energy at the 120-minute level has shown signs of weakening, and even if there is a pull, it may encounter a surge and a pullback. It is expected that the market will still maintain the first adjustment pattern.
In general,In the short term, the Shanghai Composite Index will still face a consolidation trend of rising and falling, and maintain an adjustment pattern. However, due to the fact that the inflection point of sentiment has arrived, if it falls again tomorrow, investors can enter the market and buy low. Since the short-term technology and market sentiment are not completely resonant, it is recommended to temporarily control it within the 5th layer. As for swing operations, it is recommended to wait for the 60-minute level top risk to be removed before entering or adding positions.